• Bitcoin (BTC) in an uptrend but down 4.3 percent
• Tether’s reserve low and the peg isn’t 1:1 against the USD

It is now emerging that USDT’s reserves don’t tally with what’s in circulation. That means Tether Limited is lying and investors may flock to safety driving Bitcoin prices up. At the moment, BTC is down 4.3 percent from last week’s close.

Bitcoin Price Analysis

Fundamentals

Because of all the drama, investors are reluctant. However, that is not to say they are bearish. While there is a tinge of bearish sentiment, technical and other fundamental factors support Bitcoin bulls. Expanding that and realizing that Bitcoin has a positive correlation with the altcoin market, it is easy to conclude that the market, in general, is recovering.

If anything, a combination of fundamental reasons may spur the next wave of higher highs above important resistance lines. Presently, BitFinex and Tether may be a systemic risk or blessing. With the admission that Tether Limited has no reserves to back the stable coin 100 percent, investors may decide to liquidate their stable coin and convert them to Bitcoin, alternative currencies like PAX, or fiat en mass, heaping pressure on USDT but supporting BTC.

On the other hand, the market may collapse if the NY OAG decides to impose hefty fines on BitFinex for their fraudulent activities. Zoe Phillips, of law firm Morgan Lewis, delivered the bombshell saying collaborated by BitFinex counsel:

“Tether’s reserves of cash and cash equivalents alone (without the line of credit) would cover approximately 74 percent of the outstanding amount of tether.”

Candlestick Arrangement

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At the time of press, Bitcoin (BTC) is dominant, controlling 54 percent of crypto trading. Nonetheless, it is stable, down 4.3 percent in the last week. Although we are bullish on the asset, it is imperative that bulls muster enough momentum to drive prices above $5,500, in a trend continuation phase.

That means reversing loses of Apr-25, ideally with high transaction volumes, and confirming buyers of Apr-2. By doing so, Bitcoin would be free from a temporary consolidation.

On the other hand, should there be lower lows countering yesterday’s upswings then it is likely that bears of Apr-25—which is wide-ranging with high participation levels—would drive prices below $4950 invalidating our short-term stance. As a result, it is Bitcoin (BTC) may drop to $4,500 in line with our last BTC/USD trade plan.

Technical Indicators

From above, Apr-25 with 18k against 10k volumes is our reference bar. The initial trend is bullish, but the bar is bearish with tepid bulls. Any drop below $4,950 or surge past $5,600 should be with high participation exceeding 18k of Apr-25 or 38k of Apr-2.

Chart courtesy of Trading View

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