-
The only positive from Friday’s USDA Report was on the corn side where they reduced the yield to 167.0 (Oct – 168.4) & the World Stockpiles to 296.0 (Oct-302.6)! That was good for a 11 cent inter-day rally! Unfortunately, negative rhetoric from the trade deal curtailed the rally – leaving the mkt with a mid-range close – albeit a marginally higher one!!
FACTORS IMPACTING THE MKT
Production – 13,661 (Oct – 13,779)
Yield 167.0 (Oct – 168.4)
Harv Acres 81.8 (Oct – 81.8)
US Stocks 1910 (Oct – 1929)
World Stocks 296.0 (Oct – 302.6)
Two bearish influences will soon be lifted from the market – harvest pressure and the uncertainty of a trade deal – at that time, the mkt should stabilize!!
-
The USDA Nov Report was not kind to the “bean complex” where #’s were generally left unchanged from Oct when the expectation was quite widespread that re-surveys in selected states would lower the yield & production! Bean Prod was 3530 (Oct – 3550), Yield was 46.9 (Oct – 46.9), World Stocks – 95.4 (Oct – 95.2) & US Stocks – 475 (Oct-460)! The mkt reacted with a 20 cent drop over two days! Furthering the weakness were mixed signals from the US & China on the reduction of tariffs & the ultimate resolution of Phase 1 of the trade deal! Finally, harvest pressure is still on the mkt with 25% of the bean crop out!
-
Much like the Bean #’s, the Wht #’s on the 11/8/19 USDA Report were unfriendly – with World Stocks at 288.3 (Oct – 287.8) & US Stocks – 1014 (Oct – 1043)! So the mkt reacted with 15 cent down – but nearly recovered all those losses today with a “Turn-around” Tuesday recovery! This type of resilient action is indicative of a mkt that appears to be “sold-out”! And justifiably so- as it sits on the lower end of a 10 year range – which should soon make US Wht competitive on the world mkt!
-
Pundits keep saying that this mkt is way overdo for a top – that after a $20 rally, it is fairly valued! But “demand” won’t let this mkt die – plus our recent unseasonable cold snap has reduced weight gain & increased death loss – further supporting the mkt! So hang on!!
-
Dec Hogs continue to be caught between short-term negatives & long-term positives! The former would be heavy supplies & high average weights & the latter would be the massive potential for huge US Pork Exports to China! The two conflicting factors are keeping the mkt range-bound – for now!!
141 W. Jackson Blvd. Suite 1920 Chicago, IL 60604 | (800) 769-7021 | (855) 264-6673 (Direct) | www.pricegroup.com
A Subsidiary of Price Holdings, Inc. – an Employee Owned Diversified Financial Services Firm. Orders must be entered via direct verbal communication with a representative of our firm. We cannot be held responsible for orders left in any other manner. PAST RESULTS ARE NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. Investing in futures can involve substantial risk & is not for everyone. Trading foreign exchange also involves a high degree of risk. The leverage created by trading on margin can work against you as well as for you, and losses can exceed your entire investment. Before opening an account and trading, you should seek advice from your advisors as appropriate to ensure that you understand the risks and can withstand the losses. Member NIBA, NFA.
The information and data in this report were obtained from sources considered reliable. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any securities or futures. The PRICE Futures Group, its officers, directors, employees, and brokers may in the normal course of business have positions, which may or may not agree with the opinions expressed in this report. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in this report will be the full responsibility of the person authorizing such transaction. Reproduction and/or distribution of any portion of this report are strictly prohibited without the written permission of the author.
To SUBSCRIBE to the AGMASTER please go to http://bit.ly/xIGR6x.
To Unsubscribe from the AGMASTER please send an email to [email protected].
View the AGMASTER Archives at http://blog.pricegroup.com/tag/agmaster.