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3yrs ago Managed Futures blog.pricegroup Views: 309

We start off the week with Jolt’s Job Openings at 9:00 A.M., Consumer Inflation Expectations and Export Inspections at 10:00 A.M., 3-Month and 6-Month Bill Auction at 10:30 A.M., Crop Progress and Fed Evans Speech at 3:00 P.M.

On the Corn Front we have the Crop Progress report today and Wednesday we have the Crop Production USDA Supply/Demand and WASDE report with expectations will show large yields in both corn and soybeans. This will be based on primarily farmer surveys and September reports will be based on the USDA’s production estimates. In July the USDA estimated trade is expecting U.S. corn yields to be about 180 bushels an acre. If that is realized, it will be over 15 billion bushels of production. Arlen Suderman with Successful Farming reports that the Chinese communist government can get U.S. corn shipped to a port of their choice and auction it off for $7 higher. While they make sure the corn their farmers raise will get $8 or $9. These numbers are huge when talking in the billions of bushels. It seems thy have a good grasp on the free enterprise system as there is talk of renegotiating the Phase One of the trade deal and before or after the November election. In the overnight electronic session the December corn is currently trading at 321 ¼ which is a ½ of a cent higher. The trading range has been 322 ½ to 320 ½.

On the Ethanol Front the Sturgis Motorcycle Rally is being held this week despite coronavirus concerns. The Renewable Fuels Association is marketing E85 and horsepower that comes along with it. On Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday they will be giving away a free tank of 93% Octane E10 (10% ethanol), a ceremonial t-shirt and ethanol based hand sanitizer. There were no trades posted in the overnight electronic session. The September contract settled at 1.120 and is currently showing 1 bid @ 1.120 and 1 offer @ 1.200 with Open Interest at 69 contracts.

On the Crude Oil front Haley Zaremba with Oilprice.com reports there is no joy in Mudville with the OPEC+ consortium. After Saudi Arabia and Russia tangled  which led to an all out price war with production flooding the market, they have since reconciled for the good of the industry, but many petroleum exporting countries are not making good on their production cut pledges. This will be in the market as we watch events unfold in the coming months. Late last week an oil tanker, the MV Wakashio began leaking oil and spilling over 1,000 tonnes of oil into the Indian Ocean off the coast of Mauritis, The Japanese tanker started leaking oil on Thursday and fears of more oil leak when the ship ran aground on July 25th. Mauritius prime minister Pravind Jugnauth declared a state of environmental emergency on Friday. In the overnight electronic session the September crude oil is currently trading at 4174 which is 52 points higher. The trading range has been 4196 to 4117.

On the Natural Gas front the market is forming  a Bull Flag Pattern while temperatures are expected to carry on warmer than normal. Also the VeChain Foundation is entering the second phase of “energy as a service” ecosystem with Chinese natural gas giant Shanghai Gas (Group) Co, LTD. Chinese President Xi Jinping said in a speech in October that China must, “must seize the opportunity presented to the block chain. A report details how energy solutions is growing rapidly and predict the value of the Chines market will rise as much as $35 billion U.S. by 2025. In the overnight electronic session the September natural gas is currently trading at 2.218 which is 2 cents higher. The trading range has been 2.275 to 2.179.

Have a Great Trading Day!
Dan Flynn


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