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1w ago Managed Futures blog.pricegroup Views: 123

WHEAT General Comments: Wheat markets were higher and trends turned up on the daily charts. The move came as USDA cut ending stocks and increased domestic feed demand to account for less than expected quarterly stocks. Some late buying came from the limit up move in Corn. World markets remained stable and there are more forecasts for rain and snow in the southern Great Plains. Rain and snow will be beneficial to crops in the region. Southern Russia has also gotten some rain and snow now as the crops there are dormant. The snow can help protect crops against Winterkill and the rain and snow can be used in the Spring to support initial growth.. US prices remain very close to international prices and US markets have searched for new demand. Export demand has remained stable and moderate with the close price relationships. World prices have held steady or worked higher even with additional supplies available to the market as Russian prices remain elevated. Australian supplies have increased as its harvest is moving to completion. Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get isolated showers or dry conditions. Temperatures should be near normal. Northern areas should see scattered showers today and tomorrow, then mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will be above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average above normal. Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are up with objectives of 674, 686, and 721 March. Support is at 648, 629, and 614 March, with resistance at 670, 676, and 682 March. Trends in Kansas City are up with objectives of 634, 663, and 674 March. Support is at 616, 602, and 587 March, with resistance at 630, 636, and 642 March. Trends in Minneapolis are up with objectives of 630, 632, and 634 March. Support is at 612, 606, and 596 March, and resistance is at 632, 638, and 644 March. RICE General Comments: Rice was sharply higher in response to the USDA reports. USDA increased domestic demand sharply and cut ending stocks estimates. Exports were reduced and production was increased slightly. The cash market is still slow and the lack of business has been reflected in futures volumes traded. Reports indicate that domestic demand has been poor to average with better consumer demand more than offset by much less demand from schools and other institutions. However, USDA must expect domestic demand to increase a lot very soon. Overnight News: The Delta should get scattered showers this weekend. Temperatures should be below normal. Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed to up with objectives of 1296 and 1318 March. Support is at 1274, 1265, and 1248 March, with resistance at 1292, 1301, and 1312 March. CORN AND OATS General Comments: Corn was sharply higher to limit up and Oats were higher in response to the USDQA reports. USDA cut yields and production for the US and lowered ending stocks levels despite less demand. Trends turned up on the daily charts yesterday. Export demand has held relatively strong as US Corn is about the cheapest feed grain in the world market. Domestic demand has been less due to reduced demand for ethanol processing and questions about feed demand. It has rained in central and northern Brazil in the last week. Southern Brazil and Argentina got some very beneficial rain over the weekend. Drought could develop in Brazil and Argentina as the overall weather patterns have been dry and as dry weather is in the forecast for Argentina and southern Brazil. The drought is especially serious in South America for the first Corn crop but the second crop could also be affected due to late planting in central and northern Brazil. Dry weather has delayed the Soybeans planting and that will delay the second Corn planting later. Argentina has removed its export ban on Corn. Overnight News: Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are up with objectives of 532 March. Support is at 503, 496, and 487 March, and resistance is at 512, 520, and 523 March. Trends in Oats are mixed to up with objectives of 375 and 383 March. Support is at 358, 352, and 350 March, and resistance is at 370, 373, and 376 March. SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS General Comments: Soybeans and Soybean Meal were higher in trading in response to the USDA reports. Soybean Oil closed little changed. USDA showed increased demand and smaller ending stocks. Export demand was increased by 30 million bushels. Demand remains a feature of the market as US ending stocks estimates are very tight and are likely to get even tighter as time goes on. China continues to buy each day and has appeared in the daily reporting system of USDA in the past week. Production potential is being threatened in South America due to the lack of rainfall. The situation is improved in central and northern Brazil but remains dire in southern Brazil and Argentina. Southern Brazil and Argentina got some very beneficial rain over the weekend and more is in the forecast for late this week. The world will need very strong production from South America to meet the projected demand. The stocks to use ration for Soybeans is now very small and the situation is the tightest projected in years. Overnight News: Unknown destinations bought 464,300 tons of US Soybeans. Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are up with objectives of 1441 March. Support is at 1386, 1369, and 1342 March, and resistance is at 1436, 1448, and 1460 March. Trends in Soybean Meal are up with objectives of 471.00 March. Support is at 444.00, 441.00, and 430.00 March, and resistance is at 468.00, 471.00, and 474.00 March. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to down with objectives of 4180 and 4020 March. Support is at 4180, 4130, and 4100 March, with resistance at 4300, 4370, and 4420 March. CANOLA AND PALM OIL General Comments: Palm Oil closed lower on ideas that the weak export pace shown so far by SGS can continue this month. Production of most vegetable oils in the world is less this year due to a lack of production of oilseeds. The production of Palm Oil is down in both Malaysia and Indonesia as plantations in both countries are having trouble getting workers into the fields. Ethanol demand has been moderate. Canola was higher on the USDA estimates and on strength in Canola. Production problems for Soybeans in South America helped Soybean Oil. Very strong Palm Oil prices have made buying Soybean and Canola oils the better option. Trends are up. Demand for Canola has improved in recent weeks and farm selling has been less. Overnight News: Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are up with no objectives. Support is at 673.00, 664.00, and 660.00 March, with resistance at 690.00, 693.00, and 696.00 March. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 3630, 3560, and 3500 March, with resistance at 3800, 3840, and 3890 March. DJ Malaysia’s December Palm Oil Exports Rose 25% to 1.62 Mln Tons, MPOB Says Malaysia’s palm oil exports were up 25% on month at 1.62 million metric tons in December, the Malaysian Palm Oil Board said. The following are details of the December crop data and revised numbers for November, issued by MPOB: December November Change On Month Crude Palm Oil Output 1,333,637 1,491,551 Dn 10.59% Palm Oil Exports 1,624,692 1,303,271 Up 24.66% Palm Kernel Oil Exports 145,551 91,747 Up 58.64% Palm Oil Imports 282,058 112,663 Up 150.35% Closing Stocks 1,264,881 1,561,758 Dn 19.01% Crude Palm Oil 583,761 722,451 Dn 19.2% Processed Palm Oil 681,120 839,307 Dn 18.85% This content was automatically published based on data and/or text from the original source. For feedback, write to [email protected] DJ Malaysia January 1-10 Palm Oil Exports Down 30%, SGS Says Malaysia’s palm oil exports during the January 1-10 period are estimated down 30% on month at 278,450 metric tons, cargo surveyor SGS (Malaysia) Bhd. said. The following are the major items in the SGS estimate: (All figures in metric tons) January 1-10 December 1-10 RBD Palm Olein 102,089 95,730 RBD Palm Oil 32,190 39,395 RBD Palm Stearin 29,030 25,914 Crude Palm Oil 32,770 107,220 Total* 278,450 396,099 *Palm oil product volumes don’t add up to total as some products aren’t included SGS Malaysia is a division of the Switzerland-based Societe Generale de Surveillance Group. Midwest Weather Forecast: Mostly dry or light precipitation. Temperatures should average near normal US Gulf Cash Basis Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil January +82 Mar +160 Mar +95 Mar +78 Jan +30 Mar +550 Mar February +80 Mar +97 Mar +76 Mar March +70 Mar +95 Mar +76 Mar DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Jan 12 WINNIPEG–The following are the closing cash canola prices from ICE Futures for Jan. 12, 2020. Source: ICE Futures CANOLA 1 Canada NCC Best Bid Spot Price Basis Contract Change *Par Region 640.40 -32.40 Mar 21 up 7.60 Basis: Thunder Bay 721.90 35.00 Mar 21 up 14.10 Basis: Vancouver 746.90 60.00 Mar 21 up 14.10 All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton. *Quote for previous day Source: Commodity News Service Canada (Phil Franz-Warkentin, [email protected], or 204-414-9084) DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – Jan 13 The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Wednesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd. Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms. Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports Offer Change Bid Change Traded Jan 1022.50 00.00 Unquoted – – Feb 1007.50 +05.00 Unquoted – – Mar 967.50 +02.50 Unquoted – – Apr/May/Jun 907.50 +05.00 Unquoted – – Jul/Aug/Sep 837.50 +05.00 Unquoted – – RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports Offer Change Bid Change Traded Jan 1025.00 00.00 Unquoted – – Feb 1010.00 +05.00 Unquoted – – Mar 970.00 +02.50 Unquoted – – Apr/May/Jun 910.00 +05.00 Unquoted – – Jul/Aug/Sep 840.00 +05.00 Unquoted – – RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports Offer Change Bid Change Traded Jan 1000.00 00.00 Unquoted – – Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports Offer Change Bid Change Traded Jan 885.00 00.00 Unquoted – – Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia Offer Change Bid Change Traded Jan 3,970.00 00.00 Unquoted – – Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia Offer Change Bid Change Traded Jan 335.00 00.00 Unquoted – – ($1=MYR4.041) DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Jan 13 Soybean No. 1 Turnover: 185,247 lots, or 10.90 billion yuan Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open Settle Interest Jan-21 5,820 5,820 5,820 5,820 5,828 5,820 -8 5 3,461 Mar-21 5,851 6,072 5,808 5,827 5,859 5,875 16 9,454 7,757 May-21 5,871 5,985 5,809 5,840 5,876 5,884 8 173,902 90,216 Jul-21 5,808 5,912 5,788 5,792 5,815 5,826 11 158 881 Sep-21 5,719 5,867 5,681 5,722 5,749 5,768 19 1,702 3,553 Nov-21 5,457 5,579 5,457 5,475 5,523 5,540 17 26 149 Corn Turnover: 1,179,329 lots, or 34.00 billion yuan Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open Settle Interest Jan-21 2,891 2,926 2,850 2,855 2,820 2,872 52 203 910 Mar-21 2,843 2,915 2,843 2,860 2,835 2,878 43 49,586 91,712 May-21 2,872 2,930 2,866 2,872 2,842 2,890 48 953,481 1,084,579 Jul-21 2,861 2,925 2,861 2,871 2,840 2,886 46 41,715 123,898 Sep-21 2,822 2,869 2,819 2,824 2,799 2,836 37 112,055 227,558 Nov-21 2,756 2,790 2,746 2,754 2,738 2,767 29 22,289 23,627 Soymeal Turnover: 2,755,012 lots, or 10.28 billion yuan Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open Settle Interest Jan-21 – – – 3,660 3,660 3,660 0 0 0 Mar-21 3,676 3,850 3,669 3,809 3,676 3,778 102 102,810 45,010 May-21 3,645 3,825 3,630 3,775 3,626 3,730 104 2,110,513 1,787,399 Jul-21 3,595 3,759 3,587 3,727 3,582 3,692 110 98,865 92,900 Aug-21 3,634 3,784 3,617 3,763 3,615 3,731 116 33,935 11,397 Sep-21 3,634 3,804 3,622 3,767 3,622 3,721 99 408,665 635,232 Nov-21 3,526 3,684 3,526 3,671 3,535 3,616 81 77 966 Dec-21 3,503 3,653 3,503 3,643 3,500 3,609 109 147 1,702 Palm Oil Turnover: 773,088 lots, or 5.44 billion yuan Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open Settle Interest Jan-21 7,400 7,400 7,400 7,400 7,730 7,400 -330 1 391 Feb-21 7,400 7,558 7,392 7,494 7,450 7,482 32 6,947 17,082 Mar-21 7,424 7,544 7,364 7,478 7,426 7,476 50 10,738 20,329 Apr-21 7,184 7,340 7,168 7,262 7,242 7,268 26 4,714 7,105 May-21 7,012 7,150 6,966 7,046 7,072 7,052 -20 704,351 348,118 Jun-21 6,880 7,018 6,844 6,910 6,940 6,920 -20 1,396 1,083 Jul-21 6,812 6,828 6,804 6,804 6,818 6,812 -6 7 24 Aug-21 – – – 6,690 6,690 6,690 0 0 3 Sep-21 6,556 6,678 6,480 6,594 6,592 6,592 0 44,925 44,552 Oct-21 – – – 6,502 6,502 6,502 0 0 8 Nov-21 6,420 6,518 6,420 6,518 6,520 6,458 -62 3 19 Dec-21 6,542 6,542 6,450 6,452 6,502 6,466 -36 6 22 Soybean Oil Turnover: 824,743 lots, or 6.57 billion yuan Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open Settle Interest Jan-21 8,700 8,700 8,680 8,700 8,702 8,698 -4 116 3,258 Mar-21 8,338 8,510 8,282 8,422 8,380 8,402 22 19,237 7,601 May-21 7,942 8,102 7,904 7,978 7,984 8,004 20 711,414 502,454 Jul-21 7,692 7,820 7,622 7,730 7,724 7,740 16 17,550 26,406 Aug-21 7,530 7,724 7,524 7,644 7,626 7,642 16 10,974 3,944 Sep-21 7,502 7,646 7,446 7,546 7,532 7,558 26 65,420 94,623 Nov-21 7,486 7,564 7,486 7,558 7,482 7,496 14 15 163 Dec-21 7,482 7,534 7,424 7,424 7,408 7,474 66 17 49 Notes: 1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton; 2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement; 3) Volume and open interest are in lots; 4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons. -

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