WHEAT
General Comments: Winter Wheat markets were mixed to a little higher, with Chicago SRW a little lower and the other markets mostly a little higher. The trade is keeping an eye on Russia for price direction. Russia is raising its export taxes in mid March and the world market has rallied in response. Northern weather has improved with snow in the Great Plains except for some southern areas that remain dry. Canada is also better, and some rain and snow has fallen in southern Russia. It remains much drier than normal in Argentina.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get isolated showers or dry conditions. Temperatures should be above normal. Northern areas should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will be above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to up with objectives of 686 and 721 March. Support is at 664, 653, and 648 March, with resistance at 681, 693, and 699 March. Trends in Kansas City are up with objectives of 663 and 674 March. Support is at 639, 616, and 602 March, with resistance at 652, 660, and 666 March. Trends in Minneapolis are up with no objectives. Support is at 636, 630, and 618 March, and resistance is at 656, 662, and 668 March.
RICE
General Comments: Rice was higher last week and made a new weekly high close. The move caught traders by surprise. USDA showed a sharp increase in domestic demand in its reports on Tuesday and cut ending stocks levels. The cash market has not felt any increased demand lately and mill operations are reported to be on the slow side. Exports have been less in the last eek and USDA showed this in the weekly export sales report. Exports had been strong until recently. Some traders are looking ahead to next year and are wondering how much Rice will get planted. Our ideas are that a normal crop will get planted as Rice prices compare favorable with Corn, Cotton, and Soybeans.
Overnight News: The Delta should get scattered showers. Temperatures should be above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are up with no objectives. Support is at 1301, 1283, and 1281 March, with resistance at 1326, 1336, and 1350 March.
Trends are up with no objectives. Support is at 1301, 1283, and 1281 March, with resistance at 1326, 1336, and 1350 March.
DJ USDA World Market Rice Prices – Jan 20
USDA today announced the prevailing world market prices
of milled and rough rice, adjusted for U.S. milling yields
and location, and the resulting marketing loan gain (MLG)
and loan deficiency payment LDP) rates. Source: USDA
—–World Price—– MLG/LDP Rate
Milled Value Rough Rough
($/cwt) ($/cwt) ($/cwt)
Long Grain 17.59 11.23 0.00
Medium/Short Grain 17.28 11.63 0.00
Brokens 11.16 —- —-
CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn and Oats were lower on apparent fund selling. Trends are still up in both markets. Export demand has held relatively strong as US Corn is about the cheapest feed grain in the world market. It has rained in central and northern Brazil in the last week. Southern Brazil and Argentina got some very beneficial rain over the weekend. It will turn dry again in Argentina this week. Drought could develop in Brazil and Argentina as the overall weather patterns have been dry and as dry weather is in the forecast for Argentina and southern Brazil. The drought is especially serious in South America for the first Corn crop but the second crop could also be affected due to late planting in central and northern Brazil. Dry weather has delayed the Soybeans planting and that will delay the second Corn planting later.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed to up with no objectives. Support is at 519, 517, and 513 March, and resistance is at 538, 542, and 545 March. Trends in Oats are mixed to up with objectives of 375 and 383 March. Support is at 358, 352, and 350 March, and resistance is at 370, 373, and 376 March.
SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans and the products closed lower on apparent fund selling. Very beneficial rains were reported in Brazil and Argentina over the weekend. Production potential is being threatened in South America due to the lack of rainfall. The situation is improved in central and northern Brazil and has temporarily improved in southern Brazil and Argentina. Brazil production prospects are now stronger due to the rains, but the harvest will be slow due to the late planting. The world will need very strong production from South America to meet the projected demand. The stocks to use ration for Soybeans is now very small and the situation is the tightest projected in years.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 1369, 1346, and 1329 March, and resistance is at 1436, 1448, and 1460 March. Trends in Soybean Meal are up with objectives of 471.00 March. Support is at 444.00, 441.00, and 430.00 March, and resistance is at 464.00, 471.00, and 474.00 March. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to down with objectives of 4020 March. Support is at 4100, 4060, and 4040 March, with resistance at 4200, 4250, and 4300 March.
CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil closed sharply lower as export volumes have been much less so far in January. Exports have been running at 44% less than last month so far, and the trend is expected to continue for the balance of the month. The market had been supported by ideas of tight supplies. The production of Palm Oil is down in both Malaysia and Indonesia as plantations in both countries are having trouble getting workers into the fields. Canola was lower on the price action in Chicago and Malaysia.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 664.00, 660.00, and 657.00 March, with resistance at 687.00, 693.00, and 696.00 March. Trends in Palm Oil are down with objectives of 3120 April. Support is at 3190, 3160, and 3120 April, with resistance at 3370, 3420, and 3480 April.
DJ Malaysia Jan. 1-20 Palm Oil Exports Fell 43.3%, SGS Says
Malaysia’s palm oil exports during the Jan. 1-20 period are estimated down 43.3% on month at 572,910 metric tons, cargo surveyor SGS (Malaysia) said Wednesday.
The following are the major items in the SGS estimate:
(All figures in metric tons)
January 1-20 December 1-20
RBD Palm Olein 175,084 245,295
RBD Palm Oil 39,765 95,095
RBD Palm Stearin 48,273 50,184
Crude Palm Oil 112,972 299,860
Total* 572,910 1,010,653
*Palm oil product volumes don’t add up to total as some products aren’t included
SGS Malaysia is a division of the Switzerland-based Societe Generale de Surveillance Group.
Midwest Weather Forecast: Rain and snow this weekend, otherwise mostly dry or light precipitation. Temperatures should average near to above normal
US Gulf Cash Basis Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil January +79 Mar +160 Mar +115 Mar +85 Mar +30 Mar +550 Mar February +74 Mar +97 Mar +79 Mar March +71 Mar +95 Mar +79 Mar
DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Jan 19
WINNIPEG–The following are the closing cash canola prices
from ICE Futures for Jan. 19, 2021.
Source: ICE Futures
CANOLA
1 Canada NCC Best Bid
Spot Price Basis Contract Change
*Par Region 651.60 -32.40 Mar 2 1 dn 3.80
Basis: Thunder Bay 681.60 35.00 May 21 dn 19.40
Basis: Vancouver 711.60 65.00 May 21 dn 19.40
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada ([email protected], or
204-414-9084)
DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – Jan 20
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Wednesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 947.50 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Feb 932.50 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Mar 865.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 822.50 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 782.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 950.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Feb 935.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Mar 867.50 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 825.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 785.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 930.00 -15.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 825.00 -15.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 3,500.00 -100.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 301.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.043)
DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Jan 20
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 222,374 lots, or 12.69 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-21 5,793 5,793 5,589 5,625 5,764 5,672 -92 9,291 6,387
May-21 5,802 5,817 5,617 5,672 5,800 5,709 -91 211,502 91,972
Jul-21 5,727 5,753 5,579 5,598 5,724 5,633 -91 90 710
Sep-21 5,635 5,640 5,472 5,507 5,622 5,524 -98 1,288 4,199
Nov-21 5,427 5,441 5,358 5,361 5,453 5,400 -53 31 125
Jan-22 5,401 5,427 5,238 5,349 5,392 5,393 1 172 126
Corn
Turnover: 843,055 lots, or 23.95 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-21 2,860 2,860 2,829 2,839 2,867 2,839 -28 53,751 96,496
May-21 2,868 2,874 2,832 2,845 2,876 2,849 -27 636,369 1,068,392
Jul-21 2,878 2,878 2,836 2,843 2,879 2,852 -27 32,577 127,454
Sep-21 2,825 2,828 2,788 2,792 2,830 2,803 -27 93,646 247,724
Nov-21 2,770 2,775 2,731 2,733 2,777 2,745 -32 26,201 25,626
Jan-22 2,741 2,741 2,706 2,714 2,746 2,719 -27 511 697
Soymeal
Turnover: 3,317,149 lots, or 11.84 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-21 3,719 3,725 3,536 3,570 3,717 3,602 -115 109,250 43,220
May-21 3,680 3,680 3,501 3,534 3,671 3,565 -106 2,343,092 1,544,206
Jul-21 3,657 3,657 3,480 3,508 3,648 3,547 -101 109,734 100,790
Aug-21 3,690 3,690 3,524 3,551 3,690 3,574 -116 25,275 12,818
Sep-21 3,696 3,699 3,526 3,554 3,694 3,590 -104 696,549 682,621
Nov-21 3,543 3,545 3,380 3,425 3,574 3,431 -143 105 1,041
Dec-21 3,518 3,525 3,409 3,418 3,534 3,484 -50 623 809
Jan-22 3,497 3,499 3,354 3,380 3,499 3,408 -91 32,521 41,252
Palm Oil
Turnover: 912,654 lots, or 59.94 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Feb-21 7,228 7,242 6,928 7,004 7,244 7,104 -140 2,566 8,775
Mar-21 7,216 7,236 6,864 6,910 7,216 7,078 -138 18,189 25,904
Apr-21 6,906 6,956 6,652 6,700 6,912 6,780 -132 7,119 6,753
May-21 6,646 6,696 6,468 6,528 6,674 6,578 -96 825,468 368,482
Jun-21 6,542 6,598 6,364 6,364 6,538 6,482 -56 1,241 1,118
Jul-21 6,418 6,450 6,270 6,302 6,476 6,314 -162 13 33
Aug-21 – – – 6,348 6,348 6,348 0 0 4
Sep-21 6,200 6,300 6,120 6,186 6,272 6,204 -68 57,723 52,817
Oct-21 6,184 6,204 6,080 6,080 6,180 6,142 -38 4 8
Nov-21 6,108 6,108 6,078 6,078 6,242 6,092 -150 2 17
Dec-21 6,162 6,162 6,072 6,072 6,210 6,090 -120 8 38
Jan-22 6,100 6,140 5,988 6,036 6,120 6,060 -60 321 483
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 836,817 lots, or 63.22 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-21 8,052 8,196 7,890 7,930 8,124 8,036 -88 22,042 6,797
May-21 7,620 7,704 7,502 7,542 7,692 7,596 -96 705,663 477,040
Jul-21 7,338 7,392 7,220 7,268 7,390 7,306 -84 13,777 29,820
Aug-21 7,266 7,302 7,134 7,180 7,296 7,214 -82 8,230 4,023
Sep-21 7,200 7,256 7,082 7,130 7,244 7,160 -84 85,194 120,715
Nov-21 7,100 7,102 7,038 7,078 7,230 7,080 -150 8 178
Dec-21 7,150 7,160 7,020 7,022 7,178 7,070 -108 20 100
Jan-22 7,142 7,190 7,012 7,046 7,168 7,078 -90 1,883 1,639
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.