WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets were a little lower last week as a neutral USDA WASDE report brought some long liquidation to the pit. The report showed ending stocks in line with average estimates from the trade, but the lack of bullish news brought the selling. Futures recovered late in the week as the threat of Winterkill in the western Great Plains appeared for the past weekend. Temperatures were forecast to drop below 0F in many areas and that is cold enough to kill an unprotected crop. A much as 5% to 10% of the area did not have good moisture or snow cover for protection. Most traders now expect less or no Wheat offers from Black Sea ports after the middle of March. No one is sure about Russia and its new tax regime. Russia is raising its export taxes in mid March but farmers there are not selling. The Russian government move has apparently caused lower prices internally and farmers have reportedly pulled back for the market.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get scattered showers. Temperatures should be below normal. Northern areas should see scattered showers. Temperatures will be below normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 624, 614, and 607 March, with resistance at 643, 650, and 660 March. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 608, 605, and 587 March, with resistance at 626, 640, and 644 March. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 614, 610, and 608 March, and resistance is at 630, 638, and 640 March.
COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of February 09, 2021
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
WHEAT-SRW – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #001602 Open Interest is 557,908
: Positions :
: 75,071 82,684 180,935 77,207 202,048 184,549 41,534 517,763 507,202: 40,145 50,706
: Changes from: February 2, 2021 (Change in open interest: -7,829) :
: -3,280 -1,149 532 -5,472 -5,323 -1,613 -1,619 -9,832 -7,558: 2,003 -272
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 13.5 14.8 32.4 13.8 36.2 33.1 7.4 92.8 90.9: 7.2 9.1
: Total Traders: 385 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 90 109 130 72 117 45 18 291 306:
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COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of February 09, 2021
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
WHEAT-HRW – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #001612 Open Interest is 248,840
: Positions :
: 56,521 21,599 54,418 37,217 141,078 76,246 9,564 224,402 226,659: 24,438 22,181
: Changes from: February 2, 2021 (Change in open interest: 5,427) :
: -761 -3,904 6,549 1,154 3,342 -3,305 -1,225 3,638 4,763: 1,790 665
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 22.7 8.7 21.9 15.0 56.7 30.6 3.8 90.2 91.1: 9.8 8.9
: Total Traders: 251 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 61 40 58 68 95 34 16 193 186:
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Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of February 9, 2021
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
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WHEAT-HRSpring – MINNEAPOLIS GRAIN EXCHANGE (CONTRACTS OF 5,000 BUSHELS) :
CFTC Code #001626 Open Interest is 94,819 :
: Positions :
: 42,340 64,153 3,867 62 1,336 15,817 2,884 3,929 5,393 3,612 5,490 :
: Changes from: February 2, 2021 :
: 1,082 -1,566 -99 -162 -3 -1,428 -261 677 -1,416 -30 834 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 44.7 67.7 4.1 0.1 1.4 16.7 3.0 4.1 5.7 3.8 5.8 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 115 :
: 49 44 6 . 4 16 6 5 12 7 13 :
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Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of February 9, 2021
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
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BLACK SEA WHEAT FINANCIAL – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE 50 Metric Tons :
CFTC Code #00160F Open Interest is 14,291 :
: Positions :
: 7,771 10,921 149 310 500 3,277 974 787 500 230 0 :
: Changes from: February 2, 2021 :
: -917 -3,710 -345 -5 -850 -1,879 974 -3,287 150 0 0 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 54.4 76.4 1.0 2.2 3.5 22.9 6.8 5.5 3.5 1.6 0.0 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 24 :
: 9 14 . . . 4 . . . . 0 :
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RICE
General Comments: Rice was lower again last week in generally light volume trading on what appeared to be speculative long liquidation. The cash market has not felt any increased demand lately and mill operations are reported to be on the slow side. Exports had been strong until recently and were moderate last week. Texas is about out of Rice, but there is Rice available in the other states. Asian and Mercosur markets have firmed recently and were mixed last week but this has not yet affected the US world price that much.
Overnight News: The Delta should get isolated showers. Temperatures should be below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 1277, 1263, and 1260 March, with resistance at 1297, 1310, and 1318 March.
Trends are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 1277, 1263, and 1260 March, with resistance at 1297, 1310, and 1318 March.
Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of February 9, 2021
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
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ROUGH RICE – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE (CONTRACTS OF 200,000 POUNDS) :
CFTC Code #039601 Open Interest is 10,451 :
: Positions :
: 4,334 8,430 102 0 0 2,767 467 0 898 762 247 :
: Changes from: February 2, 2021 :
: 191 -42 1 0 0 -55 0 0 16 3 65 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 41.5 80.7 1.0 0.0 0.0 26.5 4.5 0.0 8.6 7.3 2.4 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 48 :
: 8 14 . 0 0 13 . 0 7 7 5 :
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CORN AND OATS:
General Comments: Corn and Oats were a little lower with Corn under heavy selling pressure at midweek due to a bearish USDA WASDE estimate. USDA did increase export demand and cut ending stocks but not as much as the trade had expected. The world enduing stocks estimate was well above trade expectations due to larger than expected ending stocks for China. Many wondered how USDA could leave the Chinese stocks so high when prices there are very high and are indicating very short supplies, but that is what happened and so the market sold off. The last part of the week was spent watching South America and its harvest weather. The weekly export sales report was very strong. It has rained in central and parts of northern Brazil in the last week, but farmers were able to harvest Soybeans and plant the Winter Corn around the precipitation. Southern Brazil and Argentina are now drier. The main crop harvest has started in parts of Brazil, but progress will be slow due to the late planting dates due too dry conditions earlier in the year. The second crop of Corn planting is also being delayed and yield estimates for South American Corn have been reduced.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 525, 515, and 508 March, and resistance is at 546, 558, and 568 March. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 345, 341, and 335 March, and resistance is at 358, 360, and 368 March.
COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of February 09, 2021
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
CORN – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #002602 Open Interest is 2,693,387
: Positions :
: 451,742 65,190 639,634 772,080 1,543,458 591,289 196,147 2,454,744 2,444,429: 238,643 248,958
: Changes from: February 2, 2021 (Change in open interest: 53,588) :
: 4,132 1,447 28,237 2,398 20,525 7,966 -550 42,732 49,659: 10,855 3,929
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 16.8 2.4 23.7 28.7 57.3 22.0 7.3 91.1 90.8: 8.9 9.2
: Total Traders: 981 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 245 127 226 411 492 50 25 805 788:
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Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of February 9, 2021
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
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OATS – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE (CONTRACTS OF 5,000 BUSHELS) :
CFTC Code #004603 Open Interest is 4,707 :
: Positions :
: 1,087 3,734 106 0 0 874 0 0 583 19 30 :
: Changes from: February 2, 2021 :
: -70 17 0 0 0 -188 0 0 -1 -8 -4 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 23.1 79.3 2.3 0.0 0.0 18.6 0.0 0.0 12.4 0.4 0.6 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 24 :
: 9 9 . 0 0 6 0 0 . . . :
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SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and Soybean Meal closed lower as speculative long liquidation developed in response to a neutral USDA WASDE estimate report. US ending stocks were cut to 120 million bushels as expected and the world estimates were generally in line with trade ideas. The market moved lower as there weas not really any new bullish news for the market. Selling came on ideas that the impending Brazil harvest will kill current demand for US Soybeans. The harvest has been delayed due to late planting dates early due to dry weather and now too much rain that has caused harvest delays and some quality problems as well. Rains are coming to an end in some areas so harvest activities have increased. China has been buying for this year and next year here but also in South America. There is little sign the US price has rationed demand. Export demand reports were above expectations last week. The strong demand for exports and for domestic use means there is little room for error and that the US could even come close to running out of Soybeans to sell. Brazil Soybeans are now estimated to be 5% harvested.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 1336, 1298, and 1286 March, and resistance is at 1395, 1407, and 1409 March. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 418.00, 417.00, and 408.00 March, and resistance is at 432.00, 437.00, and 444.00 March. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to up with objectives of 4670 and 4830 March. Support is at 4630, 4520, and 4430 March, with resistance at 4660, 4690, and 4720 March.
COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of February 09, 2021
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SOYBEANS – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #005602 Open Interest is 1,321,924
: Positions :
: 192,132 33,692 378,961 387,095 703,917 268,223 113,942 1,226,411 1,230,511: 95,514 91,413
: Changes from: February 2, 2021 (Change in open interest: 10,641) :
: 9,586 -2,803 3,935 -20,533 5,997 13,663 3,204 6,652 10,333: 3,990 309
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 14.5 2.5 28.7 29.3 53.2 20.3 8.6 92.8 93.1: 7.2 6.9
: Total Traders: 664 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 223 89 193 214 267 48 23 552 516:
——————————————————————————————————————-
COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of February 09, 2021
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SOYBEAN OIL – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #007601 Open Interest is 601,413
: Positions :
: 96,458 22,659 146,745 150,521 379,632 160,481 27,758 554,205 576,794: 47,208 24,618
: Changes from: February 2, 2021 (Change in open interest: 20,035) :
: 1,818 -982 3,348 7,142 15,211 4,778 879 17,087 18,456: 2,949 1,580
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 16.0 3.8 24.4 25.0 63.1 26.7 4.6 92.2 95.9: 7.8 4.1
: Total Traders: 324 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 102 43 81 99 99 40 16 277 214:
——————————————————————————————————————-
COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of February 09, 2021
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SOYBEAN MEAL – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #026603 Open Interest is 497,713
: Positions :
: 66,962 12,475 101,808 150,141 324,984 110,093 26,786 429,004 466,053: 68,709 31,659
: Changes from: February 2, 2021 (Change in open interest: 13,722) :
: 2,913 52 3,792 2,273 10,415 -422 -113 8,556 14,146: 5,166 -424
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 13.5 2.5 20.5 30.2 65.3 22.1 5.4 86.2 93.6: 13.8 6.4
: Total Traders: 280 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 80 30 72 109 108 31 15 251 206:
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CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: World vegetable oils markets were firm last week. Palm Oil rallied on reports of excellent early February exports after MPOB released a bearish January supply and demand report. Production was down, but demand was down more. The production of Palm Oil is down in both Malaysia and Indonesia as plantations in both countries are having trouble getting workers into the fields. Wet weather has caused even more delays. Palm Oil was a little higher today. Soybean Oil and Canola closed higher for the week on ideas of increasing demand, and Canola also got talk of tight supplies due to reduced offers from farmers and reduced production earlier in the year.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed to up with no objectives. Support is at 707.00, 688.00, and 680.00 March, with resistance at 724.00, 727.00, and 730.00 March. Trends in Palm Oil are up with no objectives. Support is at 3490, 3440, and 3330 April, with resistance at 3660, 3720, and 3800 April.
Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of February 9, 2021
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
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CANOLA – ICE FUTURES U.S. (20 Metric Tonnes) :
CFTC Code #135731 Open Interest is 255,650 :
: Positions :
: 155,994 196,198 4,608 5,574 6,204 46,433 3,043 9,791 9,445 13,338 20,098 :
: Changes from: February 2, 2021 :
: -1,820 2,163 53 127 1,121 2,629 527 434 1,347 -127 1,013 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 61.0 76.7 1.8 2.2 2.4 18.2 1.2 3.8 3.7 5.2 7.9 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 291 :
: 59 57 4 4 4 51 8 9 78 53 51 :