WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets were higher last week but held to recent trading ranges. USDA issued their first look at the next crop year at the Outlook Forum late in the week. Planted Wheat area was less than expected, implying that Spring Wheat area could be less this Summer. The demand side of the table was in line with expectations and ending stocks for the coming year were estimated at 698 million bushels, from 836 million for the current year. Futures were higher as the threat of Winterkill in the western Great Plains appeared for the past week. Temperatures dropped below 0F in many areas and that is cold enough to kill an unprotected crop. The actual damage will take some time to see under warmer temperatures and it might take until harvest to see the full effects of the recent extreme cold. Most traders now expect less or no Wheat offers from Black Sea ports after the middle of March. No one is sure about Russia and its new tax regime. Russia is raising its export taxes in mid March but farmers there are not selling. The Russian government move has apparently caused lower prices internally and farmers have reportedly pulled back for the market.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get scattered showers. Temperatures should be below normal. Northern areas should see scattered showers. Temperatures will be below normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 638, 632, and 624 March, with resistance at 660, 669, and 673 March. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 625, 620, and 608 March, with resistance at 640, 644, and 649 March. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 632, 614, and 610 March, and resistance is at 636, 638, and 640 March.
COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of February 16, 2021
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
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WHEAT-SRW – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #001602 Open Interest is 561,553
: Positions :
: 76,716 81,884 181,910 70,315 202,919 193,315 43,714 522,256 510,427: 39,297 51,126
: Changes from: February 9, 2021 (Change in open interest: 3,645) :
: 1,645 -800 974 -6,892 871 8,766 2,180 4,493 3,225: -848 420
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 13.7 14.6 32.4 12.5 36.1 34.4 7.8 93.0 90.9: 7.0 9.1
: Total Traders: 375 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 91 101 123 76 116 45 18 288 293:
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COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of February 16, 2021
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
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WHEAT-HRW – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #001612 Open Interest is 251,963
: Positions :
: 54,916 22,713 57,534 36,606 139,245 78,325 10,089 227,381 229,581: 24,582 22,382
: Changes from: February 9, 2021 (Change in open interest: 3,123) :
: -1,605 1,114 3,116 -611 -1,832 2,079 525 2,979 2,922: 144 201
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 21.8 9.0 22.8 14.5 55.3 31.1 4.0 90.2 91.1: 9.8 8.9
: Total Traders: 250 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 62 39 57 67 93 36 18 192 186:
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Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of February 16, 2021
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
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WHEAT-HRSpring – MINNEAPOLIS GRAIN EXCHANGE (CONTRACTS OF 5,000 BUSHELS) :
CFTC Code #001626 Open Interest is 93,707 :
: Positions :
: 44,650 65,231 3,890 190 1,413 15,182 2,970 3,184 4,324 3,659 5,048 :
: Changes from: February 9, 2021 :
: 2,311 1,078 23 128 77 -635 86 -745 -1,069 48 -442 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 47.6 69.6 4.2 0.2 1.5 16.2 3.2 3.4 4.6 3.9 5.4 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 119 :
: 51 45 7 . 4 18 6 5 13 7 14 :
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Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of February 16, 2021
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
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BLACK SEA WHEAT FINANCIAL – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE 50 Metric Tons :
CFTC Code #00160F Open Interest is 15,831 :
: Positions :
: 7,983 10,394 399 260 250 4,977 3,846 0 1,150 230 0 :
: Changes from: February 9, 2021 :
: 212 -527 250 -50 -250 1,700 2,872 -787 650 0 0 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 50.4 65.7 2.5 1.6 1.6 31.4 24.3 0.0 7.3 1.5 0.0 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 26 :
: 9 15 . . . 5 . 0 . . 0 :
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RICE
General Comments: Rice was higher last week after a short covering rally on Friday. The export sales report was strong, but featured sales to Japan and South Korea. Long Grain demand was more limited. The cash market has not felt any increased demand lately and mill operations are reported to be on the slow side. Exports had been strong until recently and were moderate last week. Texas is about out of Rice, but there is Rice available in the other states. Asian and Mercosur markets have firmed recently and were mixed last week but this has not yet affected the US world price that much. The Outlook Conference estimates for next year showed reduced planted and harvested area and reduced production. Domestic demand weas cut quite a bit and export demand was cut a little bit so ending stocks were left relatively high at 39.3 million cwt and a stocks to use ratio of 16.3.
Overnight News: The Delta should get isolated showers. Temperatures should be below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are down with no objectives. Support is at 1275, 1260, and 1253 March, with resistance at 1297, 1310, and 1318 March.
Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of February 16, 2021
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
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ROUGH RICE – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE (CONTRACTS OF 200,000 POUNDS) :
CFTC Code #039601 Open Interest is 10,255 :
: Positions :
: 4,517 8,226 103 0 0 2,391 467 0 785 716 306 :
: Changes from: February 9, 2021 :
: 183 -204 1 0 0 -376 0 0 -113 -46 59 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 44.0 80.2 1.0 0.0 0.0 23.3 4.6 0.0 7.7 7.0 3.0 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 45 :
: 9 15 . 0 0 9 . 0 6 6 5 :
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CORN AND OATS:
General Comments: Corn closed a little higher and Oats were a little lower with Corn up a bit on South American weather and the latest estimates from the USDA Outlook Conference. It has rained in central and parts of northern Brazil in the last week, but farmers were able to harvest Soybeans and plant the Winter Corn around the precipitation. Southern Brazil and Argentina are now drier and Corn in Argentina could be stressed. The main crop harvest has started in parts of Brazil, but progress will be slow due to the late planting dates due too dry conditions earlier in the year. The second crop of Corn planting is also being delayed and yield estimates for South American Corn have been reduced. The Outlook Conference estimates from USDA were in line with general trade ideas. Ending stocks were estimated at 1.552 billion bushels for a stocks to use ratio of 10.3.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 537, 535, and 533 March, and resistance is at 555, 558, and 568 March. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 345, 341, and 335 March, and resistance is at 357, 360, and 368 March.
COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of February 16, 2021
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
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CORN – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #002602 Open Interest is 2,664,969
: Positions :
: 448,150 62,156 646,264 750,671 1,521,835 590,753 188,677 2,435,838 2,418,933: 229,131 246,036
: Changes from: February 9, 2021 (Change in open interest: -28,418) :
: -3,592 -3,034 6,630 -21,409 -21,623 -536 -7,470 -18,906 -25,497: -9,512 -2,921
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 16.8 2.3 24.3 28.2 57.1 22.2 7.1 91.4 90.8: 8.6 9.2
: Total Traders: 967 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 246 118 225 414 488 50 25 805 778:
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Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of February 16, 2021
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
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OATS – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE (CONTRACTS OF 5,000 BUSHELS) :
CFTC Code #004603 Open Interest is 4,525 :
: Positions :
: 960 3,414 107 0 0 1,014 0 0 583 15 31 :
: Changes from: February 9, 2021 :
: -127 -320 1 0 0 140 0 0 0 -5 1 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 21.2 75.4 2.4 0.0 0.0 22.4 0.0 0.0 12.9 0.3 0.7 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 26 :
: 10 9 . 0 0 8 0 0 . . . :
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SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans closed higher and Soybean Meal closed lower. Selling came on ideas that the impending Brazil harvest will kill current demand for US Soybeans. Demand was less last week in the weekly export data, but still relatively strong due to harvest delays in Brazil. The harvest has been delayed due to late planting dates early due to dry weather and now too much rain that has caused harvest delays and some quality problems as well. Rains are coming to an end in some areas so harvest activities have increased. China has been buying for this year and next year here but also in South America. The strong demand for exports and for domestic use means there is little room for error and that the US could even come close to running out of Soybeans to sell. The USDA Outlook Conference highlighted estimates that the situation for Soybeans could stay tight next year. Ending stocks were estimated at just 145 million bushels for a stocks to use ratio of 3.2.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 1366, 1342, and 1337 March, and resistance is at 1395, 1407, and 1409 March. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 418.00, 417.00, and 408.00 March, and resistance is at 433.00, 437.00, and 444.00 March. Trends in Soybean Oil are up with objectives of 4960 March. Support is at 4620, 4550, and 4520 March, with resistance at 4800, 4850, and 4860 March.
COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of February 16, 2021
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SOYBEANS – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #005602 Open Interest is 1,294,632
: Positions :
: 174,297 32,372 379,161 380,765 681,930 272,709 110,889 1,206,932 1,204,352: 87,701 90,280
: Changes from: February 9, 2021 (Change in open interest: -27,292) :
: -17,835 -1,319 200 -6,331 -21,987 4,486 -3,053 -19,479 -26,159: -7,813 -1,133
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 13.5 2.5 29.3 29.4 52.7 21.1 8.6 93.2 93.0: 6.8 7.0
: Total Traders: 653 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 211 90 198 212 263 51 23 541 518:
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COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of February 16, 2021
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SOYBEAN OIL – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #007601 Open Interest is 626,841
: Positions :
: 97,333 21,616 157,889 161,295 389,866 162,268 32,374 578,785 601,745: 48,057 25,096
: Changes from: February 9, 2021 (Change in open interest: 25,429) :
: 875 -1,043 11,144 10,774 10,234 1,786 4,616 24,580 24,951: 849 478
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 15.5 3.4 25.2 25.7 62.2 25.9 5.2 92.3 96.0: 7.7 4.0
: Total Traders: 337 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 110 44 83 100 98 43 17 290 218:
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COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of February 16, 2021
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SOYBEAN MEAL – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #026603 Open Interest is 497,653
: Positions :
: 63,735 14,730 98,971 157,350 323,484 116,223 29,791 436,279 466,976: 61,373 30,677
: Changes from: February 9, 2021 (Change in open interest: -60) :
: -3,227 2,255 -2,837 7,210 -1,500 6,129 3,005 7,275 923: -7,335 -983
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 12.8 3.0 19.9 31.6 65.0 23.4 6.0 87.7 93.8: 12.3 6.2
: Total Traders: 285 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 75 36 68 110 107 37 16 257 203:
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CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil closed higher on ideas of tight supplies. The export news has been good with February exports holding to stronger levels than January. The concern is that the higher price with the higher tax would scare away would be buyers. The production of Palm Oil is down in both Malaysia and Indonesia as plantations in both countries are having trouble getting workers into the fields. Wet weather has caused even more delays. Soybean Oil and Canola closed higher for the week on ideas of increasing demand, and Canola also got talk of tight supplies due to reduced offers from farmers and reduced production earlier in the year.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are up with no objectives. Support is at 745.00, 730.00, and 720.00 March, with resistance at 781.00, 784.00, and 790.00 March. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 3650, 3590, and 3540 April, with resistance at 3800, 3860, and 3920 April.
DJ Malaysia Feb. 1-20 Palm Oil Exports 697,794 Tons, Up 10%, AmSpec Says
Malaysia’s palm oil exports during the Feb. 1-20 period are estimated 10% higher from the previous month at 697,794 metric tons, cargo surveyor AmSpec Agri Malaysia said Saturday.
The following are the major items in the AmSpec estimate:
(All figures in metric tons)
Feb 1-20 Jan 1-20
RBD Palm Olein 224,230 179,500
RBD Palm Oil 54,115 45,905
RBD Palm Stearin 48,513 49,370
Crude Palm Oil 128,961 144,492
Total* 697,794 632,827
Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of February 16, 2021
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
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CANOLA – ICE FUTURES U.S. (20 Metric Tonnes) :
CFTC Code #135731 Open Interest is 254,809 :
: Positions :
: 160,290 194,447 81 6,046 6,265 47,381 3,119 8,568 7,793 13,503 21,363 :
: Changes from: February 9, 2021 :
: 4,296 -1,750 -4,527 472 62 948 76 -1,223 -1,651 165 1,265 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 62.9 76.3 0.0 2.4 2.5 18.6 1.2 3.4 3.1 5.3 8.4 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 274 :
: 57 51 . 6 5 53 7 9 68 49 51 :
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Midwest Weather Forecast: More rain and snow today and then over the weekend. Temperatures should average below normal.
US Gulf Cash Basis Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil February +80 Mar +148 Mar +105 Mar +70 Mar March +73 Mar +105 Mar +73 Mar April +74 May +100 Mar +74 May