WHEAT          

General Comments:   Wheat markets were lower and held the trading range.  Chart trends are mostly mixed.  HRW was the big lower on the day as some rain is now n the forecast for the Great Plains in the next few days.  USDA made no important changes on Tuesday in its WASDE estimates.  It changed some of the export demand from HRW to WW and also increased feed wheat use for China.  Ideas are that forecasts for rain in the Great Plains will help injured Winter Wheat.  The threat of Winterkill production losses in the western Great Plains now appears to be part of the price.  Temperatures dropped below 0F in many areas and that is cold enough to kill an unprotected crop.  The actual damage will take some time to see under warmer temperatures and it might take until harvest to see the full effects of the recent extreme cold.

Overnight News:  The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions.  Temperatures should be near to above normal.  Northern areas should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will be above normal.  The Canadian Prairies should see isolated showers or dry conditions.  Temperatures should average above normal.

Chart Analysis:  Trends in Chicago are mixed.  Support is at 640, 637, and 632 May, with resistance at 663, 669, and 672 May.  Trends in Kansas City are mixed to down with objectives of 607 May.  Support is at 611, 608, and 600 May, with resistance at 628, 635, and 640 May.  Trends in Minneapolis are mixed.  Support is at 636, 631, and 628 May, and resistance is at 652, 659, and 662 May.

 

RICE  

General Comments:  Rice was lower on what appeared to be speculative selling.  Futures are searching for news to ignite another rally or to prompt further selling.  USDA in its WASDE report on Tuesday left supply and demand categories alone and raised the average farm price for All Rice and Long Grain by 20 cents to reflect where the cash market is now.  World production estimates showed increased production potential for India.  The cash market has not felt any increased export demand lately and mill operations are reported to be on the slow side.  Exports were moderate last week.  Texas is about out of Rice, but there is Rice available in the other states, especially Arkansas.  Asian and Mercosur markets were steady to firm last week.

Overnight News:  The Delta should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be near to below normal.

Chart Analysis:   Trends are mixed to down with objectives of 1286, 1270, and 1252 May.  Support is at 1292, 1290, and 1243 May, with resistance at 1317, 1321, and 1325 May.

 

CORN AND OATS:  

General Comments:  Corn and Oats were lower on what appeared to be fund selling.  Corn needs some bullish news to send prices sharply higher, and increased demand could be the news if the demand starts to appear.  USDA on Tuesday made no changes to supply or demand for US Corn.  The market had expected increased export demand and lower ending stocks.  USDA made no changes to South American production estimates and the trade had expected reduced production.  Export demand has started to fall as the South America main crop is expected to be harvested soon.  The big export crop is the Winter Corn crop which is still being planted.  Chinese demand had been strong until recently and it looks like they need the Corn either way.  Prices inside China for Corn remain extremely high.  It is raining in central and parts of northern Brazil in the last week, but farmers were still able to harvest some of the Soybeans area and plant some of the Winter Corn around the precipitation.  The Winter Corn crop is on a very slow pace to be planted and progress is well behind normal.  Argentina is now drier and Corn in Argentina could be stressed.  Southern Brazil got showers.  The main crop harvest has started in parts of Brazil, but progress will be slow due to the late planting dates due too dry conditions earlier in the year.  The second crop of Corn planting is also being delayed and yield estimates for South American Corn have been reduced.

Overnight News:  Ethanol production was 938,000 barrels per day in the week ending March 5, from 849,000 the previous week and 1.044 million last year.  Ethanol production used an 94.8 million bushels of Corn last week, up 9 million bushels from last week. Year-to-date usage is at 2.552 billion bushels.

Chart Analysis:  Trends in Corn are mixed.  Support is at 531, 529, and 523 May, and resistance is at 546, 556, and 558 May.  Trends in Oats are mixed to up with objectives of 412 May.  Support is at 381, 373, and 368 May, and resistance is at 387, 394, and 400 May.

 

SOYBEANS 

General Comments:  Soybeans and the products closed lower, with Soybeans and Soybean Meal leading the way.  Only minor losses were seen in Soybean Oil on supply and demand concerns.  Forecasts for some rains to appear in Argentina at the end of next week created some of the selling interest.  Funds appeared to be the best sellers.  The USDA reports on Tuesday showed no changes for the domestic estimates and an increase in Brazilian production estimates due to increased harvested area.  Ideas are that the impending Brazil harvest will kill current demand for US Soybeans.  Demand was improved last week in the weekly export data and the US has now sold 98% of its target amount of Soybeans for the marketing year.  Many in the trade had expected increased production and lower ending stocks for this reason alone.  The Brazil harvest has been delayed due to late planting dates early due to dry weather and now too much rain that has caused harvest delays and some quality problems in the north as well.  Rains are coming to an end in some areas so harvest activities have increased but the harvest remains very slow overall.  China has been buying for this year and next year here but now mostly in South America.  US internal demand has also been strong as seen in the crush data.  The strong demand for exports and for domestic use means there is little room for error and that the US could even come close to running out of Soybeans to sell.

Overnight News:    

Chart Analysis:  Trends in Soybeans are mixed.  Support is at 1403, 1378, and 1368 May, and resistance is at 1432, 1446, and 1460 May.  Trends in Soybean Meal are down with objectives of 396.00 and 368.00 May.   Support is at 407.00, 395.00, and 385.00 May, and resistance is at 418.00, 425.00, and 434.00 May.  Trends in Soybean Oil are up with no objectives.  Support is at 5220, 5090, and 5060 May, with resistance at 5360, 5390, and 5420 May.

 

CANOLA AND PALM OIL          

General Comments:  Palm Oil closed higher again yesterday on bullish MPOB stocks data.  Ending sgtocksx werr down to 1.3 million tons due to a five year low in production for the month.  The production of Palm Oil is down in both Malaysia and Indonesia as plantations in both countries are having trouble getting workers into the fields.  Wet weather has caused even more delays.  The weather is improved and trees seasonally increase production about now.  Canola closed low along with Chicago.  Canola still got talk of tight supplies due to reduced offers from farmers and reduced production earlier in the year.  Worries about South American production coming to market were negative.

Overnight News:

Chart Analysis:  Trends in Canola are mixed to down with objectives of 762.00 and 738.00 May.  Support is at 769.00, 748.00, and 742.00 May, with resistance at 787.00, 800.00, and 804.00 May.  Trends in Palm Oil are up with objectives of 4030 and 4250 May.  Support is at 3830, 3810, and 3670 May, with resistance at 4010, 4070, and 4130 May.

Midwest Weather Forecast:   Mostly dry or just light precipitation.  Temperatures should average near to above normal.