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3yrs ago Managed Futures blog.pricegroup Views: 376

DJ USDA Report: Summary for U.S. Quarterly Grain Stocks
The following are key numbers from the USDA’s Quarterly Grain, Soybean
Stockpiles and how the government’s estimates compared with analysts’
forecasts in a Wall Street Journal survey.
U.S. Stockpiles on Mar. 1, 2020 (million bushels)
Tuesday’s USDA
Estimate Average Range Mar. 2019 Dec. 2019
Corn 7,953 8,162 7,892-8,492 8,613 11,402
Soybeans 2,253 2,237 2,075-2,701 2,727 3,258
Wheat 1,412 1,437 1,385-1,572 1,593 1,841

DJ USDA Report: Summary for U.S. Grain, Soybean Prospective Planting
Following are key numbers from the USDA’s U.S. Grain,
Soybean Prospective Planting reports and how the
government’s estimates compared to analysts’ forecasts
in a Wall Street Journal survey.
U.S. Grain, Soybean Planting (million acres)
2020
Tuesday’s
Estimates Average Range USDA 2019
Corn 96.990 94.253 92.5-96.4 89.700
Soybeans 83.510 84.699 82.7-87.0 76.100
All Wheat 44.655 44.859 42.3-46.0 45.158
Winter Wheat 30.775 30.847 30.1-31.7 31.159
Spring Wheat 12.590 12.615 12.0-13.4 12.660
Durum Wheat 1.290 1.505 1.1-2.4 1.339

WHEAT:
General Comments: Wheat markets were mostly a little higher, but some nearby months were lower. The Coronavirus and stay at home orders in many states have created a rush of buying of Wheat products and have caught the mills short bought. They have been very active in buying Wheat in domestic cash markets, especially in the Great Plains, and bases levels have moved sharply higher. In addition, there was a lot of talk of restricted exports from Russia as Wheat prices have moved sharply higher as have flour prices in local markets. For now the restrictions imposed do not seem to be onerous, but the situation bears watching. Restrictions are also being placed on Ukraine Wheat exports. It remains dry in most growing areas near the Black Sea. The dry weather pattern continues in these areas and must still be watched although it is too early for any kind of market reaction.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get showers. Temperatures should be variable. Northern areas should see a dry week. Temperatures will average near to above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should trend to near to above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 562, 547, and 539 May, with resistance at 583, 587, and 591 May. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 479, 476, and 466 May, with resistance at 494, 497, and 506 May. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 527, 519, and 516 May, and resistance is at 542, 545, and 550 May.

RICE
General Comments: Rice was higher. Mills and speculators were buyers. The domestic situation remains tight. Some producers are selling the next crop and some significant hedge selling has been seen in new crop months in futures. Demand for US Rice remains generally positive and the export sales pace in general has been very good. Mills and exporters are calling previously bought Rice to keep the market supplied. This is happening mostly in Arkansas as Gulf Coastal areas are mostly sold out of Rice.
Overnight News: The Delta should get showers. Temperatures should be above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are up with no objectives. Support is at 1399, 1380, and 1365 May, with resistance at 1425, 1436, and 1448 May.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed lower as the trade war between Saudi Arabia and Russia hurt domestic ethanol production and the effects of the Coronavirus became part of the market. Prices for Crude Oil and also gasoline and heating oil are at extremely low levels and ethanol plants in the US are shutting down or greatly reducing run times. That means a lot less Corn demand. The Saudis are using the cheaper price to punish Russia for balking at cutting production a few weeks ago but also to eliminate competition from shale oil producers in the US and Canada as well as bio fuels producers around the world. The loss in ethanol demand inside the US is very large.
Overnight News: Japan bought 113,000 tons of US Corn.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 338, 333, and 330 May, and resistance is at 350, 353, and 357 May. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 258, 252, and 248 March, and resistance is at 270, 274, and 279 May.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans closed mostly a little higher on logistical problems in South America. Soybean Meal closed mostly a little higher. Soybean Oil closed a little higher. Both the Soybeans and Soybean Meal markets were supported in part by the lack of ethanol production here in the US. Little or now ethanol production means little or no production of DDG as well, so a potential competitor to Soybean Meal in domestic and world markets has been effectively removed. Logistical problems caused by the Coronavirus in South America also played a major role in the rally. Argentina and Brazil are having trouble getting trucks from farms to crushers and exporters. The problems are especially in Argentina, where several towns have moved to block traffic in defiance of federal orders. Exports are not supposed to be affected, but there are signs that transportation inside the countries has become very difficult.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 871, 867, and 855 May, and resistance is at 892, 897, and 904 May. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to down with objectives of 315.00 and 303.00 May. Support is at 323.00, 320.00, and 318.00 May, and resistance is at 329.00, 336.00, and 337.00 May. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to up with no objectives. Support is at 2620, 2570, and 2530 May, with resistance at 2740, 2760, and 2830 May.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Canola was a little higher. Trends are mixed on the daily charts. Palm Oil was lower on ideas of slow demand. Production is also dropping. Workers are not in the fields or the processors due to the Coronavirus but buyers are not buying as import have been locked down in many cases.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 460.00, 453.00, and 451.00 May, with resistance at 467.00, 470.00, and 473.00 May. Trends in Palm Oil are up with objectives of 2600 and 2810 June. Support is at 2400, 2300, and 2270 June, with resistance at 2480, 2520, and 2550 June.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Showers. Temperatures should average near normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
April
+55 May
+145 May
+67 May
+62 May
+12 May
N/A
May
+55 May
+72 May
+60 May

June
+51 July

+56 July

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Mar 30
WINNIPEG — The following are the closing cash
canola prices from ICE Futures.
Source: ICE Futures
Price Basis Contract Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 430.90 -32.00 May 2020 up 0.10
Basis: Thunder Bay 477.50 10.00 May 2020 up 4.60
Basis: Vancouver 492.50 25.00 May 2020 up 4.60
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – April 1
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Wednesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 597.50 -07.50 Unquoted – –
May 592.50 -07.50 Unquoted – –
Jun 585.00 -07.50 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 552.50 -17.50 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 550.00 -20.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 600.00 -07.50 Unquoted – –
May 695.00 -07.50 Unquoted – –
Jun 587.50 -07.50 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 555.00 -17.50 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 552.50 -20.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 610.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 580.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 2,480.00 -40.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 182.00 -01.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.3400)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Apr 01
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 498,941 lots, or 23.56 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-20 4,866 4,885 4,723 4,814 4,873 4,799 -74 350,297 93,143
Jul-20 4,693 4,757 4,645 4,700 4,673 4,671 -2 33 181
Sep-20 4,580 4,606 4,500 4,546 4,522 4,556 34 141,977 66,258
Nov-20 4,161 4,231 4,134 4,140 4,129 4,182 53 61 321
Jan-21 4,098 4,123 4,062 4,086 4,096 4,099 3 6,573 18,492
Mar-21 – – – 4,145 4,142 4,145 3 0 25
Corn
Turnover: 629,828 lots, or 12.84 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-20 1,991 1,998 1,976 1,979 1,987 1,986 -1 68,738 253,780
Jul-20 2,021 2,030 2,009 2,011 2,018 2,020 2 26,165 64,160
Sep-20 2,048 2,056 2,032 2,037 2,044 2,044 0 514,412 758,451
Nov-20 2,066 2,071 2,050 2,053 2,061 2,061 0 3,616 8,759
Jan-21 2,092 2,093 2,071 2,076 2,083 2,081 -2 13,390 53,579
Mar-21 2,098 2,107 2,086 2,092 2,095 2,095 0 3,507 1,380
Soymeal
Turnover: 2,989,380 lots, or 86.27 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-20 2,950 2,959 2,842 2,868 2,961 2,888 -73 576,558 542,890
Jul-20 2,932 2,933 2,822 2,841 2,927 2,870 -57 105,301 83,579
Aug-20 2,940 2,940 2,830 2,850 2,931 2,893 -38 51,069 7,943
Sep-20 2,939 2,945 2,839 2,862 2,936 2,885 -51 2,167,632 1,689,083
Nov-20 2,944 2,947 2,850 2,870 2,935 2,895 -40 15,891 6,696
Dec-20 2,949 2,975 2,878 2,896 2,948 2,908 -40 31 306
Jan-21 2,933 2,943 2,845 2,863 2,919 2,893 -26 72,786 152,786
Mar-21 2,897 2,913 2,824 2,834 2,885 2,854 -31 112 432
Palm Oil
Turnover: 1,151,191 lots, or 55.79 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Apr-20 – – – 4,598 4,598 4,598 0 0 0
May-20 4,920 4,966 4,838 4,880 4,956 4,902 -54 720,515 154,774
Jun-20 4,954 5,042 4,932 4,982 5,086 4,986 -100 21 42
Jul-20 4,886 4,998 4,834 4,834 4,916 4,884 -32 17 271
Aug-20 – – – 4,918 4,950 4,918 -32 0 4
Sep-20 4,788 4,808 4,676 4,714 4,832 4,750 -82 426,011 218,728
Oct-20 4,808 4,808 4,752 4,752 4,724 4,780 56 2 8
Nov-20 – – – 4,886 4,886 4,886 0 0 6
Dec-20 4,884 4,888 4,884 4,888 4,912 4,886 -26 2 156
Jan-21 4,852 4,868 4,742 4,778 4,910 4,798 -112 4,623 20,173
Feb-21 – – – 4,906 4,906 4,906 0 0 3
Mar-21 – – – 4,862 4,974 4,862 -112 0 1
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 518,349 lots, or 28.22 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-20 5,392 5,430 5,338 5,370 5,460 5,380 -80 112,912 153,917
Jul-20 5,374 5,374 5,374 5,374 5,476 5,374 -102 1 266
Aug-20 – – – 5,450 5,450 5,450 0 0 2
Sep-20 5,504 5,510 5,414 5,446 5,534 5,458 -76 399,400 420,922
Nov-20 5,542 5,542 5,502 5,502 5,626 5,508 -118 7 702
Dec-20 5,582 5,594 5,544 5,558 5,676 5,574 -102 7 15
Jan-21 5,594 5,612 5,526 5,556 5,630 5,566 -64 6,020 31,734
Mar-21 5,500 5,504 5,500 5,504 5,670 5,502 -168 2 4
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.


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