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2yrs ago Managed Futures blog.pricegroup Views: 401

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets were mixed as Wheat remains a weather market. The weather remains too dry in the northern Great Plains and in the Canadian Prairies and farmers can’t plant. It has been very cold and some Winterkill was possible in the central and southern Great Plains. Any damage is expected to be light. There will be some precipitation with the colder air which should be mostly light but beneficial for the short term. Demand remains disappointing with net cancellations of export sales in the weekly report last week. The chart trends are up on the daily charts and on the weekly charts.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be below normal. Northern areas should see general rains. Temperatures will be below normal. The Canadian Prairies should see showers and rains. Temperatures should average below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are up with objectives of 670 and 709 May. Support is at 644, 637, and 628 May, with resistance at 665, 669, and 672 May. Trends in Kansas City are up with objectives of 614, 648, and 678 May. Support is at 609, 600, and 591 May, with resistance at 620, 623, and 629 May. Trends in Minneapolis are up with objectives of 671 and 690 May. Support is at 658, 650, and 639 May, and resistance is at 670, 674, and 680 May.

RICE
General Comments: Rice was a little lower in the front months on what appeared to be speculative selling tied to ideas of weaker demand. Demand has been solid for exports but less for the mills and this remains the feature of the trade. The export demand has been primarily for paddy Rice and not for milled Rice. The cash market has not felt any increased demand lately and mill operations are reported to be on the slow side. Texas is about out of Rice, but there is Rice available in the other states, especially Arkansas. Asian and Mercosur markets were steady to lower last week. New crop Rice is getting planted in Texas and planting is more than three quarters done in Louisiana. Mississippi and Arkansas are starting planting.
Overnight News: The Delta should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are down with objectives of 1267, 1264, and 1246 May. Support is at 1279, 1276, and 1273 May, with resistance at 1300, 1304, and 1309 May.

CORN AND OATS:
General Comments: Corn closed higher on what appeared to be speculative buying based on ideas of strong demand and long term weather outlooks for warm and dry weather west of the Mississippi River. It is currently very cold in the US and some recently planted Corn could get hurt or at least be very slow to emerge. There are also concerns about the production potential for the Safrinha crop in Brazil as growing areas have been warm and dry. Oats were unchanged. Chinese demand had been strong until recently and it looks like they need the Corn. Prices inside China for Corn remain extremely high. It is drier in central and parts of northern Brazil, and farmers have finally harvested the Soybeans area and planted the Winter Corn. The Winter Corn crop progress is well behind normal and it has been dry in major growing areas. Some showers are possible in southern areas this week. Showers could also fall in the north for some temporary support to Corn in both areas, but much more and more general rains are needed. Demand for US Corn has been coming at a stronger pace than estimated by USDA and it looks like US ending stocks can be significantly less than current projections by the end of the year.
Overnight News: Mexico bought 114,300 tons of US Corn.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are up with objectives of 604, 607, and 614 May. Support is at 584, 566, and 561 May, and resistance is at 602, 608, and 614 May. Trends in Oats are mixed to up with objectives of 391, 409, and 457 May. Support is at 379, 376, and 371 May, and resistance is at 386, 387, and 390 May.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and Soybean Meal were higher. Soybean Oil was a little lower. There is still crush demand and export demand even though the demand is less now than before. The US does not have a lot of Soybeans in the country anymore as most producers have already sold. Buyers are scrambling for what is left. The Brazil harvest had been delayed due to late planting dates early due to dry weather and now too much rain that has caused harvest delays and some quality problems in the north as well. Harvest activities have increased but the harvest remains very slow overall. China has been buying for next year here but now is buying mostly in South America. US internal demand has been strong. Soybean Meal is under pressure due to the big buying seen in Soybean Oil although that reversed a bit yesterday. Production of DDG can increase in the near future as ethanol demand improves and more people start driving again.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed to up with objectives of 1344, 1387, and 1400 May. Support is at 1417, 1399, and 1378 May, and resistance is at 1446, 1456, and 1460 May. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 402.00, 395.00, and 390.00 May, and resistance is at 409.00, 418.00, and 424.00 May. Trends in Soybean Oil are up with objectives of 5900, 5920, and 6440 May. Support is at 5490, 5340, and 5090 May, with resistance at 5920, 5980, and 6040 May.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil was lower today on hopes for increasing supplies. Ideas of tight supplies are still around but MPOB did show higher than expected ending stocks in its March data released last week. The production of Palm Oil is down in both Malaysia and Indonesia. Canola was mostly higher on ideas of tight supplies combined with a drought in the Canadian Prairies. May was weaker on news stories that Canada had bought a couple of cargoes of Rapeseed from Ukraine and might buy more due to price spreads between the two producing countries. Worries about South American production are supporting both markets. Demand is thought to be great with crush margins favoring a lot of production of vegetable oils to feed the demand. The demand for bio fuels is about to increase and is one reason to see much stronger Soybean Oi and Canola prices.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are up with objectives of 840.00 and 878.00 May. Support is at 816.00, 805.00, and 796.00 May, with resistance at 844.00, 848.00, and 854.00 May. Trends in Palm Oil are up with objectives of 3860 July. Support is at 3650, 3600, and 3540 July, with resistance at 3720, 3780, and 3830 July.

 

 


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