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2yrs ago Managed Futures blog.pricegroup Views: 412

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets were lower on reports of better weather for growing areas. Showers and rains were seen in parts of Western Texas and in Oklahoma and also in the northern Great Plains. Kansas and the Canadian Prairies got some beneficial rain. Scattered showers are in the forecast for this week in western Texas and rains are possible into Kansas. These rains should be very beneficial for planting and initial growth, and more is in the forecast. Wheat remains a weather market, but the demand side has been weak. Demand remains disappointing but the production might not be there for better demand in the coming year. Corn prices are high so demand for feed wheat could increase.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get scattered showers. Temperatures should be near to below normal. Northern areas should see scattered showers. Temperatures will be near to below normal. The Canadian Prairies should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average near to below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are down with objectives of 652 and 646 July. Support is at 651, 646, and 640 July, with resistance at 672, 593, and 707 July. Trends in Kansas City are down with objectives of 578 and 576 July. Support is at 604, 599, and 595 July, with resistance at 622, 643, and 650 July. Trends in Minneapolis are down with no objectives. Support is at 676, 664, and 658 July, and resistance is at 690, 710, and 716 July.

RICE
General Comments: Rice prices were a little lower again on what appeared to be follow through speculative selling due to increased precipitation and warmer temperatures for US growing areas. Rice areas have generally been wet. Louisiana and parts of Texas are saturated. Warm temperatures are finally spreading north into Arkansas and Missouri and the crop progress is improving. Texas and Louisiana are almost out of Rice, but there is Rice available in the other states, especially Arkansas.
Overnight News: The Delta should get scattered showers. Temperatures should be near to above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are down with objectives of 1296, 1272, and 1264 July. Support is at 1309, 1307, and 1301 July, with resistance at 1328, 1338, and 1347 July.

CORN AND OATS:
General Comments: Corn closed lower on improved Midwest weather, but managed to recover from the worst losses by the close. Improved weather forecasts and reports and higher acreage estimates have been the bearish factors in the market. Western sections of the Midwest got crops planted with speed, but eastern areas are slower. Emergence has been about average in all areas. Emergence has been slow due to cold temperatures but the Midwest has warmed up in the last week and is expected to stay generally warm this week. There will be precipitation that will benefit crops. Overall planting and initial growth conditions should be fairly good over the next week. There are problems with the production potential for the Safrinha crop in Brazil as growing areas have been warm and dry and look to stay that way longer term. Reports indicate that crops are being stressed due to the lack of rain. It is drier in central and parts of northern Brazil, but southern Safrinha areas got some timely and somewhat beneficial precipitation over the weekend. It has been dry in major Winter Corn growing areas.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 653, 637, and 630 July, and resistance is at 671, 674, and 703 July. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 354, 351, and 348 July, and resistance is at 366, 375, and 380 July.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and the products were mixed, with Soybeans mixed and the products generally a little higher. Some of the selling was in response to the improved Midwest and Great Plains weather that showed precipitation in many areas with more coming. Some selling came on ideas of less demand as NOPA showed less crush than anticipated early this week. However, it appears that the crushers are having trouble sourcing beans. The Dakotas and much of the Great Plains as well as much of the Midwest got beneficial rains. There is still crush demand and a little export demand even though the demand is less now than before. The US does not have a lot of Soybeans in the country anymore as most producers have already sold. Buyers are scrambling for what is left. Brazil is rapidly exporting Soybeans.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed to down with objectives of 1481 and 1387 July. Support is at 1491, 1470, and 1440 July, and resistance is at 1557, 1563, and 1575 July. Trends in Soybean Meal are down with objectives of 396.00 and 391.00 July. Support is at 396.00, 393.00, and 390.00 July, and resistance is at 405.00, 411.00, and 415.00 July. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 6420, 6300, and 5970 July, with resistance at 6740, 6790, and 7050 July.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil was lower on Friday and much lower for the week. It was lower today in sympathy with other vegetable oils markets. The private sources showed that export demand is running ahead of last month so far this month, but the market fears the loss of Indian demand due to the big Coronavirus outbreak in India that could cut demand. Ideas of tight supplies are still around but supplies are expected to increase in the short term. Canola was closed for a holiday. Demand is feared to be less because of a strong Canadian Dollar and on improved growing and planting conditions. Worries about South American production are supporting both markets as is dry weather in the Prairies. Some showers were seen in all areas late last week and there is the potential for more this week. Demand is thought to be OK with crush margins favoring a lot of production of vegetable oils to feed the demand but less exports. The demand for bio fuels is about to increase and is one reason to see much stronger Soybean Oil and Canola prices.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 857.00, 837.00, and 828.00 July, with resistance at 903.00, 920.00, and 962.00 July. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to down with objectives of 3700 and 3300 August. Support is at 3700, 3300, and 3290 August, with resistance at 4080, 4200, and 4320 August.

DJ Malaysia May 1-25 Palm Oil Exports Down 2.7%, SGS Says
Malaysia’s palm oil exports during the May 1-25 period are estimated down 2.7% on month at 1,086,676 metric tons, cargo surveyor SGS (Malaysia) Bhd. said Tuesday.
The following are the major items in the SGS estimate:
(All figures in metric tons)
May 1-25 April 1-25
RBD Palm Olein 331,455 258,892
RBD Palm Oil 76,473 60,967
RBD Palm Stearin 79,386 74,887
Crude Palm Oil 330,469 342,290
Total* 1,086,676 1,116,919
*Palm oil product volumes don’t add up to total as some products aren’t included
SGS Malaysia is a division of the Switzerland-based Societe Generale de Surveillance Group.

DJ Malaysia May 1-25 Palm Oil Exports 1,107,570 Tons, Up 0.3%, AmSpec Says
By Yi Wei Wong
Malaysia’s palm oil exports during the May 1-25 period are estimated up 0.3% on month at 1,107,570 metric tons, cargo surveyor AmSpec Agri Malaysia said Tuesday.
The following are the major items in the AmSpec estimate:
(All figures in metric tons)
May 1-25 April 1-25
RBD Palm Olein 284,168 266,158
RBD Palm Oil 86,890 62,300
RBD Palm Stearin 77,350 79,797
Crude Palm Oil 364,919 368,005
Total* 1,107,570 1,103,864
*Palm oil product volumes don’t add up to total as some products aren’t included.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Scattered showers in almost all areas. Temperatures should average near to above normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
May +97 July +160 May +95 May +74 May
June +88 July +60 July +85 July
July +63 July +65 July +71 July

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – May 21
WINNIPEG — The following are the closing cash canola prices
from ICE Futures.
Source: ICE Futures
1 Canada NCC Best Bid
Price Basis Contract Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 919.00 15.80 July 2021 dn 30.00
Basis: Thunder Bay 796.80 90.00 Nov. 2021 dn 10.90
Basis: Vancouver 811.80 105.00 Nov. 2021 dn 10.90
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.
*Quote for previous day
NOTE: Canadian markets will be closed on May 24 for the Victoria
Day holiday.
Source: Commodity News Service Canada ([email protected],
or 204-414-9084)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – May 25
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Tuesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jun 1132.50 +30.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 1025.00 +22.50 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 947.50 +20.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jun 1135.00 +30.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 1027.50 +22.50 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 950.00 +20.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jun 1085.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jun 985.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jun 4,400.00 +140.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jun 337.00 +03. 00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.142)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – May 25
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 235,135 lots, or 13.88 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-21 5,806 5,939 5,797 5,809 5,850 5,863 13 13,656 7,087
Sep-21 5,834 5,985 5,827 5,852 5,881 5,903 22 205,046 105,344
Nov-21 5,861 6,003 5,848 5,886 5,901 5,936 35 4,610 21,699
Jan-22 5,896 6,023 5,868 5,901 5,915 5,946 31 10,034 13,831
Mar-22 5,903 6,039 5,903 5,925 5,930 5,983 53 1,599 5,920
May-22 5,916 6,025 5,914 5,953 5,940 5,979 39 190 231
Corn
Turnover: 635,043 lots, or 17.36 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-21 2,772 2,787 2,756 2,767 2,781 2,772 -9 35,895 77,050
Sep-21 2,735 2,760 2,724 2,730 2,745 2,740 -5 478,360 526,333
Nov-21 2,690 2,711 2,678 2,687 2,700 2,692 -8 66,963 189,590
Jan-22 2,708 2,718 2,690 2,697 2,705 2,701 -4 35,065 111,817
Mar-22 2,700 2,715 2,688 2,696 2,704 2,700 -4 18,366 29,164
May-22 2,698 2,700 2,681 2,686 2,690 2,691 1 394 1,307
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,147,990 lots, or 40.44 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-21 3,452 3,487 3,437 3,461 3,431 3,463 32 80,020 109,458
Aug-21 3,542 3,576 3,532 3,553 3,525 3,553 28 8,470 4,478
Sep-21 3,530 3,556 3,518 3,538 3,514 3,536 22 846,481 1,340,672
Nov-21 3,535 3,562 3,525 3,547 3,519 3,540 21 17,815 10,503
Dec-21 3,546 3,546 3,536 3,536 3,509 3,540 31 5 279
Jan-22 3,502 3,531 3,492 3,515 3,488 3,511 23 159,798 368,482
Mar-22 3,367 3,391 3,354 3,375 3,358 3,373 15 28,841 192,201
May-22 3,315 3,326 3,302 3,316 3,304 3,314 10 6,560 13,815
Palm Oil
Turnover: 830,583 lots, or 62.97 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jun-21 8,656 8,820 8,656 8,820 8,696 8,764 68 6 190
Jul-21 8,538 8,606 8,472 8,606 8,490 8,558 68 7 505
Aug-21 7,912 7,986 7,912 7,986 7,922 7,948 26 2 167
Sep-21 7,560 7,696 7,556 7,626 7,590 7,622 32 745,130 345,759
Oct-21 7,390 7,532 7,390 7,460 7,416 7,460 44 18,317 20,701
Nov-21 7,278 7,420 7,278 7,354 7,302 7,346 44 5,054 27,465
Dec-21 7,194 7,310 7,186 7,234 7,194 7,236 42 6,001 33,324
Jan-22 7,076 7,214 7,076 7,150 7,066 7,142 76 44,067 53,507
Feb-22 7,014 7,146 7,008 7,082 7,014 7,080 66 10,449 3,964
Mar-22 7,042 7,146 7,006 7,044 7,020 7,074 54 787 1,340
Apr-22 7,058 7,110 7,058 7,070 7,022 7,080 58 211 246
May-22 7,036 7,132 7,006 7,044 7,002 7,064 62 552 705
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 1,004,348 lots, or 8.55 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-21 8,890 8,992 8,862 8,968 8,790 8,936 146 1,298 3,461
Aug-21 8,568 8,610 8,556 8,556 8,458 8,584 126 10 406
Sep-21 8,508 8,606 8,486 8,576 8,456 8,544 88 884,936 485,690
Nov-21 8,376 8,468 8,352 8,400 8,332 8,402 70 28,902 35,517
Dec-21 8,314 8,400 8,284 8,316 8,276 8,328 52 5,833 50,920
Jan-22 8,228 8,352 8,226 8,250 8,238 8,274 36 81,509 73,633
Mar-22 8,160 8,262 8,124 8,138 8,174 8,178 4 1,063 2,542
May-22 8,100 8,136 8,024 8,034 8,050 8,076 26 797 879
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.


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