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3yrs ago Managed Futures blog.pricegroup Views: 386

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – Jul 15
Source: CME Group
Contract Quantity Next Trade
Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date Available
SOYBEAN MEAL July Jul. 16, 2020 24 Jul 14, 2020
SOYBEAN OIL July Jul. 16, 2020 168 Jul 14, 2020
ROUGH RICE July Jul. 16, 2020 87 Jun 26, 2020
KC HRW WHEAT July Jul. 16, 2020 16 Jul 14, 2020
WHEAT July Jul. 16, 2020 1 Jul 14, 2020

WHEAT
General Comments: Winter Wheat markets were mixed as world prices held stronger. The US Winter Wheat harvest is moving forward and yield reports are still better than expected. Spring Wheat is developing well. Russian and French crops are still suffering stress and Russian yield reports have been disappointing to farmers there. The Winter Wheat markets hold to bearish trends on the weekly charts. Spring Wheat markets show down trends as good conditions are also reported in much of Canada. It remains dry in the western sections of the Great Plains but this will aid harvest progress now. Australia remains in good condition.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get scattered showers. Temperatures should be near to below normal. Northern areas should see scattered showers. Temperatures will average near to above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average near to above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to up with no objectives. Support is at 521, 506, and 501 September, with resistance at 539, 545, and 555 September. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 443, 440, and 432 September, with resistance at 464, 468, and 473 September. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 515, 510, and 506 September, and resistance is at 531, 538, and 540 September.

RICE
General Comments: Rice was mostly a little lower in consolidation trading. New crop prospects appear solid for increased production in the coming year. The combination of good export buying in general and the buying inside the US due to the Coronavirus has made the market short old crop Rice. There are ideas that the mills are well covered into new crop, but little Rice is available from producers. The crops that got planted are in very good condition in the south and near the Gulf Coast but planting was more problematic in parts of Mississippi, Arkansas, and Missouri. Ideas are that the long grain got planted and producers did not plant medium grain if some prevent planting was needed. USDA increased domestic demand but cut export demand in its estimates on Friday. World ending stocks estimates were increased with most of the increase in importer countries.
Overnight News: The Delta should get isolated showers. Temperatures should be near to above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are down with no objectives. Support is at 1183, 1180, and 1166 September, with resistance at 1207, 1213, and 1219 September.

DJ USDA World Market Rice Prices – Jul 15
USDA today announced the prevailing world market prices
of milled and rough rice, adjusted for U.S. milling yields
and location, and the resulting marketing loan gain (MLG)
and loan deficiency payment LDP) rates. Source: USDA
—–World Price—– MLG/LDP Rate
Milled Value Rough Rough
($/cwt) ($/cwt) ($/cwt)
Long Grain 17.72 11.19 0.00
Medium/Short Grain 17.37 11.93 0.00
Brokens 11.24 —- —-

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn was lower in reaction to news of big Chinese corn purchases and slight deterioration in the USDA crop condition reports Monday night. It was a bad reaction to bullish news. The ability of futures to hold rallies will depend on how much heat and for how long it stays dry in the Midwest. Current forecasts are hot and dry for only about 20% of the Midwest. There have also been problems with demand. Meats processors are back and are aiming to restore 80% to 85% of capacity kill rates in their plants. The backlog of Cattle and Hogs will slowly disappear under this scenario and meats wholesale and retail prices are falling. Ethanol demand is also improving as lock down orders are lifter in most states and in Europe, but remains generally poor.
Overnight News: China bought 132,000 tons of US Corn.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are down with objectives of 314 September. Support is at 326, 322, and 316 September, and resistance is at 336, 340, and 346 September. Trends in Oats are down with objectives of 266 September. Support is at 272, 268, and 265 September, and resistance is at 280, 288, and 290 September.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans were higher on renewed Chinese demand for US Soybeans and on the slight drop in crop condition as shown by USDA. China has become a much more active buyer of Soybeans here in the US and has promised to ramp up purchases in order to comply with commitments it made under the Phase One trade deal. However, those promises were thrown into doubt as the US announced it would not start Phase 2 negotiations at this time due to political problems with China. Ideas are that China will have much less incentive to complete Phase 1 purchases. China has remained a very active buyer in South America even as it has increased Soybeans buying here in the US, so the overall amount taken from the US might not match the hopes of the trade. Brazil prices have been creeping higher for the rest of the world as it starts to run out of Soybeans to export, so China and the rest of the world will look to the US and Argentina for additional supplies. The US weather is considered good for growing Soybeans at this time.
Overnight News: China bought 389,000 tons of US Soybeans.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are down with objectives of 865 August. Support is at 868, 863, and 856 August, and resistance is at 885, 890, and 892 August. Trends in Soybean Meal are down with objectives of 280.00 and 277.00 August. Support is at 284.00, 279.00, and 276.00 August, and resistance is at 290.00, 292.00, and 296.00 August. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 2790, 2710, and 2680 August, with resistance at 2840, 2890, and 2910 August.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil closed higher on follow through buying and chart patterns. Palm Oil has been hoping for better demand from importers as world economies slowly open after being closed by the Coronavirus epidemic. Indonesia continues to focus its Palm Oil on internal demand for bio fuels. Canola was lower on chart based selling and the price action in Chicago. Some Prairies areas got needed rain over the weekend.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 471.00, 470.00, and 468.00 November, with resistance at 480.00, 484.00, and 487.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 2350, 2340, and 2290 September, with resistance at 2470, 2490, and 2510 September.

DJ Malaysia July 1-10 Palm Oil Exports Down 20.4% -SGS
Malaysia’s palm oil exports during the July 1-10 period are estimated down 20.4% on month at 461,806 metric tons, cargo surveyor SGS (Malaysia) Bhd. said Wednesday.
The following are the major items in the SGS estimate
(All figures in metric tons)
July 1-10 June 1-10
RBD Palm Olein 137,936 257,644
RBD Palm Oil 41,790 62,535
RBD Palm Stearin 66,150 65,783
Crude Palm Oil 75,385 68,569
Total* 461,806 580,096

DJ Malaysia July 1-15 Palm Oil Exports Decline 10%, AmSpec Says
Malaysia’s palm oil exports during the July 1-15 period are estimated 10% lower from the prior month at 829,294 metric tons, cargo surveyor AmSpec Agri Malaysia said Wednesday.
The following are the major items in the AmSpec estimate:
(All figures in metric tons)
July 1-15 June 1-15
RBD Palm Olein 234,423 343,504
RBD Palm Oil 68,820 87,645
RBD Palm Stearin 72,250 72,073
Crude Palm Oil 235,651 218,424
Total* 829,294 922,251

Midwest Weather Forecast: Mostly dry. Temperatures should average below normal

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
July +53 Sep +145 Sep +50 Sep +61 July N/A N/A
August +54 Sep +50 Sep +64 Aug
September +56 Sep +45 Sep +65 Nov

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Jul 14
WINNIPEG, July 14 (MarketsFarm) – The following are the closing cash
canola prices from ICE Futures. Source: ICE Futures
Price Basis Contract Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 459.40 -13.00 Nov 2020 dn 2.10
Basis: Thunder Bay 494.20 15.00 Nov 2020 up 1.80
Basis: Vancouver 499.20 25.00 Nov 2020 up 1.80
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – July 15
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Wednesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
July Unquoted Unquoted Unquoted – –
Aug 632.50 +07.50 Unquoted – –
Sept 617.50 +07.50 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 607.50 +07.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
July Unquoted Unquoted Unquoted – –
Aug 635.00 +07.50 Unquoted – –
Sept 620.00 +07.50 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 610.00 +07.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
July 605.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
July 530.00 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
July 2,600.00 +50.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
July 170.00 +02.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.2610)


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