DJ USDA Grain Inspections for Export in Metric Tons – Aug 9
WA_GR101
Washington, DC Mon Aug 09, 2021 USDA Market News
*CORRECTIONS AT BOTTOM OF REPORT ARE INCLUDED IN CURRENT MARKET YEAR TO DATE*
COUNTRY OF DESTINATION IS REPORTED AS KNOWN AT THE TIME OF EXPORTATION.
INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS REPORT REFLECTS EXPORTED GRAIN INSPECTED AND WEIGHED
THROUGH THE AUTHORITY UNDER THE U.S. GRAIN STANDARDS ACT. NO ADDITIONAL ANALYSIS,
COMPILATIONS OR DATA IS AVAILABLE.
GRAINS INSPECTED AND/OR WEIGHED FOR EXPORT
REPORTED IN WEEK ENDING AUG 05, 2021
— METRIC TONS —
————————————————————————-
CURRENT PREVIOUS
———– WEEK ENDING ———- MARKET YEAR MARKET YEAR
GRAIN 08/05/2021 07/29/2021 08/06/2020 TO DATE TO DATE
BARLEY 299 599 0 4,513 465
CORN 667,220 1,397,406 1,312,530 63,517,449 39,440,823
FLAXSEED 0 0 0 24 317
MIXED 0 0 0 48 0
OATS 0 0 0 100 800
RYE 0 0 0 0 0
SORGHUM 75,669 55,210 111,119 6,842,171 4,644,195
SOYBEANS 114,253 184,988 843,196 58,387,701 40,258,180
SUNFLOWER 0 0 0 240 0
WHEAT 605,793 405,215 477,188 4,396,900 5,167,560
Total 1,463,234 2,043,418 2,744,033 133,149,146 89,512,340

Crop Progress
Date 8-Aug 1-Aug 2020 Avg
Cotton Squaring 88 82 95 95
Cotton Setting Bolls 63 50 69 68
Cotton Bolls Opening 5 9 11
Corn Silking 95 91 96 4
Corn Dough 56 35 56 51
Corn Dented 8 10 11
Soybeans Blooming 91 86 91 89
Soybeans Setting Pods 72 58 73 68
Sorghum Headed 69 57 65 67
Sorghum Coloring 26 22 26 29
Rice Headed 74 59 73 80
Rice Harvested 7 9 8
Peanuts Pegging 92 88 93 93
Oats Harvested 64 45 63 57
Winter Wheat Harvested 95 91 89 91
Spring Wheat Harvested 35 17 14 21
Barley Harvested 35 13 14 24

Crop Condition
Very Poor Poor Fair Good Excellent
Cotton This Week 1 6 28 48 17
Cotton Last Week 1 7 32 49 11
Cotton Last Year 6 17 35 33 9

Corn This Week 3 8 25 49 15
Corn Last Week 3 8 27 47 15
Corn Last Year 2 6 21 53 18

Soybeans This Week 3 10 27 48 12
Soybeans Last Week 2 9 28 48 12
Soybeans Last Year 1 4 21 37 17

Spring Wheat This Week 29 32 28 10 1
Spring Wheat Last Week 30 34 26 9 1
Spring Wheat Last Year 2 5 24 57 12

Rice This Week 1 2 22 59 16
Rice Last Week 1 3 24 57 16
Rice Last Year 1 2 21 57 19

Barley This Week 20 26 30 20 4
Barley Last Week 22 33 24 17 4
Barley Last Year 1 9 17 59 20

Sorghum This Week 2 7 28 54 9
Sorghum Last Week 3 7 28 54 8
Sorghum Last Year 3 9 30 45 13

Peanuts This Week 1 2 23 62 12
Peanuts Last Week 1 3 23 63 10
Peanuts Last Year 1 4 22 62 11

Pasture and Range This Week 22 21 27 22 8
Pasture and Range Last Week 23 19 26 24 8
Pasture and Range Last Year 11 20 35 30 4

DJ U.S. Corn, Soybean Production Estimates — Survey
NEW YORK–The following are analysts’ estimates for 2021 U.S. corn and soybean production in millions of bushels, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal. Yield estimates are in bushels per acre and harvested acres are in million acres. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release its monthly estimates at noon on Thursday.
U.S. 2021 Production (million bushels, bushels per acre)
Average Range USDA July USDA 2020
Corn Production 14,948 14,699-15,220 15,165 14,182
Soybean Production 4,360 4,273-4,455 4,405 4,135
Corn Yield 177.1 174.0-180.0 179.5 172.0
Soybean Yield 50.3 49.3-51.4 50.8 50.2
Corn Soybean
Production Yield Production Yield
AgriSompo North America 14,978 178.1 4,370 50.4
Agrisource 14,846 175.7 4,371 50.4
Allendale 15,136 179.1 4,273 49.3
DC Analysis 14,954 177.2 4,386 50.6
Doane 14,871 176.0 4,335 50.0
EDF Man 15,000 177.5 4,352 50.2
Futures Intl 14,828 176.0 4,407 50.8
Grain Cycles 14,913 176.5 4,413 50.9
Linn Group 14,794 176.2 4,284 49.5
Sid Love Consulting 14,999 177.5 4,335 50.0
Midland Research 14,873 176.0 4,335 50.0
Midwest Market Solutions 14,699 174.5 4,289 49.5
Northstar 14,956 177.0 4,369 50.3
Prime Ag 15,210 180.0 4,420 51.0
RJ O’Brien 14,699 174.0 4,289 49.5
RMC 14,868 177.0 4,369 50.4
StoneX Group 14,948 176.9 4,336 50.0
US Commodities 15,066 178.3 4,405 50.8
Vantage RM 15,220 179.5 4,455 51.4
Western Milling 14,933 178.0 4,336 50.0
Zaner Ag Hedge 15,122 179.0 4,436 51.2

DJ U.S. Wheat Production Estimates — Survey
NEW YORK–The following are analysts’ estimates for 2021-22 U.S. wheat production, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release updated production forecasts at noon on Thursday.
2021-22 WHEAT PRODUCTION
Average Range USDA July USDA 2020-21
All Wheat 1,725 1,700-1,777 1,746 1,826
Winter Wheat 1,366 1,347-1,376 1,364 1,171
Hard Red Winter 807 795-819 805 659
Soft Red Winter 363 357-372 362 266
White Winter 193 167-220 198 246
Other Spring 324 300-365 345 586
Durum 35 30-39 37 69
All Winter Other
Wheat Wheat Hard-Red Soft-Red White Spring Durum
AgriSompo North America 1,722
Allendale 1,704 1,364 805 362 198 305 35
DC Analysis 1,718 1,364 808 366 190 320 34
Doane 1,700 1,364 805 362 198 300 36
EDF Man 1,710 1,350 800 360 190 325 35
Futures Intl 1,753 1,372 795 357 220 342 39
Grain Cycles 1,719 1,364 320 35
Linn Group 1,724 1,364 805 362 198 325 35
Sid Love Consulting 1,739 1,367 808 365 194 337 35
Midland Research 1,725 1,376 815 372 190 315 34
Midwest Market Solutions 1,731 1,370 819 358 193 325 34
Northstar 1,777 1,375 816 365 194 365 37
RJ O’Brien 1,731 1,371 819 358 194 325 34
RMC 1,735 1,370 803 360 167 310 35
StoneX Group 1,722 1,365 808 366 192 322 35
US Commodities 1,718
Vantage RM 1,719 1,347 795 362 190 335 37
Western Milling 1,700 1,365 815 370 180 305 30
Zaner Ag Hedge 1,732 1,369 800 365 204 330 33

DJ U.S. August Grain, Soybean Stockpiles Estimates — Survey
NEW YORK–The following are analysts’ estimates in millions of bushels for U.S. ending stockpiles for 2020-21 and 2021-22, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release updated supply and demand tables on Thursday at noon ET.
U.S. Stockpiles (millions)
2020-21
Average Range USDA July
Corn 1,098 1,042-1,186 1,082
Soybeans 147 130-167 135
Wheat 841 800-844 844
2021-22
Average Range USDA July
Corn 1,265 1,005-1,477 1,432
Soybeans 151 115-236 155
Wheat 645 590-690 665
2020-21 2021-22
Corn Soybeans Wheat Corn Soybeans Wheat
AgriSompo North America 1,082 135 844 1,250 120 641
Agrisource 1,182 135 844 1,210 125 660
Allendale 1,102 167 844 1,329 145 663
DC Analysis 1,082 155 1,200 155 590
Doane 1,059 150 844 1,200 120 650
EDF Man 1,111 165 844 1,295 160 596
Futures Intl 1,069 145 1,307 167 647
Grain Cycles 1,082 155 844 1,280 198 673
Linn Group 1,186 164 1,005 129 660
Sid Love Consulting 1,050 140 844 1,234 125 658
Midland Research 1,132 155 844 1,065 155 654
Midwest Market Solutions 1,059 155 844 1,159 140 680
Northstar 1,100 145 844 1,300 160 660
Prime-Ag 1,082 135 844 1,477 170 635
RJ O’Brien 1,056 153 1,159 138 690
RMC 1,100 140 800 1,385 150 635
StoneX Group 1,156 144 844 1,324 115 636
US Commodities 1,042 130 844 1,218 150 607
Vantage RM 1,090 140 844 1,472 176 638
Western Milling 1,132 144 844 1,250 145 625
Zaner Ag Hedge 1,097 140 844 1,454 236 641

DJ August World Grain, Soybean Stockpiles Estimates — Survey
NEW YORK–The following are analysts’ estimates in millions of metric tons for world grain and soybean ending stockpiles for 2020-21 and 2021-22, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release updated supply and demand tables on Thursday at noon ET.
World Stockpiles (million metric tons)
2020-21
Average Range USDA July
Corn 278.4 275.5-281.1 279.9
Soybeans 91.5 88.8-92.3 91.5
Wheat 290.0 288.5-290.9 290.2
2021-22
Average Range USDA July
Corn 288.0 282.0-292.0 291.2
Soybeans 94.8 93.0-96.7 94.5
Wheat 288.0 280.2-290.6 291.7
2020-21 2021-22
Corn Soybeans Wheat Corn Soybeans Wheat
AgriSompo North America 290.8 94.3 290.6
Allendale 276.0 91.9 289.8 287.1 95.1 285.4
EDF Man 281.0 92.0 290.0 289.0 95.0 290.0
Futures Intl 286.0 96.0 289.0
Grain Cycles 275.5 92.0 290.2 287.0 95.5 288.5
Linn Group 282.0 94.5 289.5
Northstar 278.0 92.0 290.0 286.0 94.0 288.0
Prime-Ag 280.0 92.0 290.0 292.0 95.0 290.0
RMC 275.5 91.0 288.5 289.2 93.5 290.3
StoneX Group 279.2 88.8 290.9 288.9 93.0 280.2
Western Milling 279.5 91.8 290.2 288.0 95.0 286.5
Zaner Ag Hedge 281.1 92.3 290.2 289.4 96.7 287.7

DJ Brazil Cuts 2020-2021 Total Corn Crop Forecast to 86.7M Tons
By Jeffrey T. Lewis
SAO PAULO–Brazilian crop agency Conab cut its forecast for the country’s total corn production for the 2020-2021 growing season after a drought hit the winter crop.
Brazilian farmers will produce 86.7 million metric tons of corn this season, the agency said Tuesday. In July, the agency forecast a crop of 93.4 million tons. Brazil produced 102.6 million tons of corn in the 2019-2020 season.
Brazil’s mild winters allow its farmers to produce two crops per year, one in the southern hemisphere summer and then another, normally larger crop, in the winter. Drought conditions in many agricultural areas since earlier this year, along with unusually cold weather in some places, have reduced crop yields for the winter harvest, which is currently underway.
The winter corn crop will produce 60.3 million tons this season, down from the 67 million tons Conab forecast in July and down from 75.1 million tons in the 2019-2020 season.
Conab raised slightly its estimate for the 2020-2021 soybean crop, to a record 136 million metric tons, up from its July estimate of 135.9 million tons. In 2019-2020 Brazil produced 124.8 million tons of soybeans.

WHEAT
General Comments: Winter Wheat markets closed lower on demand concerns as the Covid pandemic has returned in full force due to the Delta variant. Dry weather in southern Russia as well as the northern US Great Plains and Canadian Prairies remains a supportive feature in the market. Trends in Winter Wheat markets are still up. Crop size estimates in Russia have been reduced and are now well below the latest USDA estimates. The Russian weather has been good for production in northern and western areas but is still trending dry in southern areas and into Kazakhstan. It is still forecast to be hot and dry in the Great Plains and Canadian Prairies for the next couple of weeks and Minneapolis remains in a trading range. The market is hearing about too wet weather in China and Europe. Europe is expecting top yields as are parts of eastern Europe and northern Russia. It has been very cold in South America and the winter crops are in trouble in Brazil and Paraguay. US White Winter Wheat production is also being hurt by hot and dry weather.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get isolated showers. Temperatures should be near to above
normal. Northern areas should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will be near normal. The Canadian Prairies should see isolated showers or dry conditions. Temperatures should average near to below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 708, 695, and 690 September, with resistance at 725, 739, and 749 September. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 688, 678, and 658 September, with resistance at 719, 724, and 745 September. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 888, 879, and 859 September, and resistance is at 928, 945, and 954 September.

RICE:
General Comments: Rice closed higher as the harvest is now expanding through southern growing areas. Initial yield reports and quality reports have not been real good. The trends are mixed in the market. Traders expect average to weak production. The harvest got started in Texas and southern Louisiana but has been slow in these areas due to rain showers in the region. Both areas have been wet and cloudy this season and average at best yields are expected. Initial reports from Texas suggest that average yields are very optimistic. There have also been some quality problems reported in Texas with smut the major problem. The harvest pace is expected to be slow due to ongoing showers in both regions. Ideas of average yields at best are also heard in Arkansas and Mississippi. The market expects smaller production this year due to reduced planted area and some weather extremes seen through the growing season to date. Growing conditions have been mixed at best with many areas getting too much rain.
Overnight News: The Delta should get isolated showers. Temperatures should be near to below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are down with objectives of 1308, 1304, and 1269 September. Support is at 1310, 1298, and 1293 September, with resistance at 1341, 1348, and 1360 September.

CORN AND OATS:
General Comments: Corn was lower yesterday and continues to trade inside a narrow trading range. The market is looking ahead to the USDA reports on Thursday that are expected to show yield potential for Corn between 176 and 182 bushels per acre. Demand has improved in the past week, and the weather remains a feature of the trade. Some forecasts call for improved weather, especially in the eastern belt. The growing conditions in the US are highly variable and not likely to produce trend line or record yields. It is still too dry in many areas of the west and drier weather is expected in the east. It should stay hot in the west and cool in the east. Ideas are that Brazil Corn production will be less than 90 million tons so reduced production estimates are expected in coming reports. Oats were a little higher on the uncertain weather in the northern Great Plains and Canadian Prairies. Canadian Oats areas and those in the northern Great Plains remain too hot and dry. Some rain is now in the forecast but is too little and too late to materially help crops.
Overnight News: Mexico bought 182,880 tons of US Corn.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 540, 537, and 535 September, and resistance is at 564, 568, and 572 September. Trends in Oats are mixed to up with objectives of 483 September. Support is at 462, 450, and 448 September, and resistance is at 476, 482, and 488 September.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and Soybean Oil were lower and Soybean Meal was a little higher on more forecasts for good production and improved weather along with worries about weaker than expected demand. Demand for Soybean Oil was in focus with the drop in Crude Oil futures yesterday. The drop in petroleum could hurt demand for bio fuels. Trade ideas are that the US national yield can be 50 bushels per acre at minimum and production can be at least 4.2 billion bushels. Chart trends remain sideways or down in all three markets. US weather is still a feature in the market as it remains hot in the west and is dry in just about all areas now. Eastern Midwest areas should be cooler. Soybeans conditions in central production area started the year too wet and have suffered. Minnesota and northern Iowa and the Dakotas have been very hot and dry but eastern Nebraska got very beneficial rain over the weekend.
Overnight News: China bought 132,000 tons of US Soybeans and unknown destinations bought 130,000 tons of US Soybeans.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 1331, 1308, and 1296 September, and resistance is at 1358, 1366, and 1379 September. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 347.00, 342.00, and 339.00 September, and resistance is at 360.00, 365.00, and 371.00 September. Trends in Soybean Oil mixed to down with objectives of 5600 and 5000 September. Support is at 5940, 5870, and 5740 September, with resistance at 6240, 6310, and 6390 September.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil closed higher Friday and has developed into a trading range market on ideas of tight supplies due to labor problems. Futures were lower today along with weakness in Crude Oil futures. There are just not enough workers in the fields due to Coronavirus restrictions. Production has also been down to more than offset the export losses so prices have trended higher. Canola closed higher today as damaging weather continues in the Canadian Prairies and northern Great Plains. Production ideas are down due to the extreme weather seen in these areas. It remains generally dry and warm in the Prairies. Some showers in the forecast for this week have no chance to be very beneficial as the Prairies crops are in big trouble now due to previous hot and dry weather and the rains are coming too late.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 859.00, 823.00, and 807.00 November, with resistance at 906.00, 932.00, and 949.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are down with objectives of 3965 October. Support is at 4190, 4090, and 4000 October, with resistance at 4370, 4480, and 4500 October.

DJ Malaysia Palm Oil Faces ESG Concerns, But Prices Tipped to Keep Rising — Market Talk
0800 GMT – Malaysia’s crude palm oil plantation sector faces continued pressure from ESG concerns, UOB Kay Hian says as it downgrades the sector to underweight from market weight. The commodity has faced criticism from advocates who say it drives deforestation, poor labor conditions and other social and environmental problems. Still, UOB KH expects CPO prices to trend higher this year, raising its 2021 view to MYR3,300 a metric ton from MYR3,000. It tips Malaysian CPO prices at MYR4,300-MYR4,500 a ton in 4Q. The supply outlook is mixed, as Indonesia’s CPO production is likely to rise in 4Q–along with other vegetable oils–while Malaysian output will likely fall over the next two or three quarters. The benchmark contract for October last closed MYR77 lower at MYR4,197. ([email protected])

Midwest Weather Forecast: Isolated showers north and west, showers and storms south and east. Temperatures should average near normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
June July May May May
July July July July
August July July July

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Aug 9
WINNIPEG — The following are the closing cash canola prices
from ICE Futures.
Source: ICE Futures
1 Canada NCC Best Bid
Price Basis Contract Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 916.80 25.00 Nov. 2021 up 12.40
Basis: Thunder Bay 932.20 50.00 Nov. 2021 dn 9.60
Basis: Vancouver 962.20 80.00 Nov. 2021 dn 9.60
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada ([email protected],
or 204-414-9084