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DJ USDA Grain Inspections for Export in Metric Tons – Aug 17
COUNTRY OF DESTINATION IS REPORTED AS KNOWN AT THE TIME OF EXPORTATION.
INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS REPORT REFLECTS EXPORTED GRAIN INSPECTED AND
WEIGHED THROUGH THE AUTHORITY UNDER THE U.S. GRAIN STANDARDS ACT.
NO ADDITIONAL ANALYSIS, COMPILATIONS OR DATA IS AVAILABLE.
GRAINS INSPECTED AND/OR WEIGHED FOR EXPORT
REPORTED IN WEEK ENDING AUG 13, 2020
— METRIC TONS —
————————————————————————-
CURRENT PREVIOUS
———– WEEK ENDING ———- MARKET YEAR MARKET YEAR
GRAIN 08/13/2020 08/06/2020 08/15/2019 TO DATE TO DATE
BARLEY 1,996 0 0 2,461 2,938
CORN 1,036,985 1,288,883 510,334 40,312,783 46,168,508
FLAXSEED 0 0 0 317 48
MIXED 0 0 0 0 0
OATS 0 0 0 800 299
RYE 0 0 0 0 0
SORGHUM 83,934 109,012 56,802 4,723,598 1,999,455
SOYBEANS 785,075 785,568 1,158,755 40,950,167 43,485,255
SUNFLOWER 0 0 0 0 0
WHEAT 461,699 476,698 564,632 5,625,441 5,521,334
Total 2,369,689 2,660,161 2,290,523 91,615,567 97,177,837
————————————————————————-
CROP MARKETING YEARS BEGIN JUNE 1 FOR WHEAT, RYE, OATS, BARLEY AND
FLAXSEED; SEPTEMBER 1 FOR CORN, SORGHUM, SOYBEANS AND SUNFLOWER SEEDS.
INCLUDES WATERWAY SHIPMENTS TO CANADA.

DJ Analysts’ Estimates for August USDA Cattle-on-Feed Report
The following estimates, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal for the nation’s feedyards with a capacity of 1,000 or more head, are in percentages of the year-earlier figure. High and low projections were dropped in the calculation of averages. The U.S. Department of Agriculture report is scheduled for release at 3 p.m. ET (1900 GMT) Friday.
Average Range
of estimates of estimates
On-feed Aug 1 100.8 99.7- 101.4
Placed in July 106.2 101.7- 108.7
Marketed in July 99.6 98.8- 101.5
Analyst On-Feed Placements Marketed
Aug 1 in July in July
Allegiant Commodity Group 101.3 108.7 98.8
Allendale Inc. 100.1 101.7 99.8
HedgersEdge 100.8 106.2 99.4
Linn Group 100.5 106.7 101.4
Livestock Mktg Info Ctr 101.0 106.7 98.9
NFC Markets 100.9 107.0 99.1
Texas A&M Extension 101.4 108.0 98.9
U.S. Commodities 99.7 102.5 101.5

Crop Progress
Date 9-Aug 2-Aug 2019 Avg
Cotton Squaring 96 91 97 96
Cotton Setting Bolls 80 71 83 82
Cotton Bolls Opening 15 9 23 14
Corn Dough 76 59 50 69
Corn Dented 23 11 13 24
Soybeans Blooming 96 92 88 94
Soybeans Setting Pods 84 75 64 79
Sorghum Headed 83 70 71 80
Sorghum Coloring thirty four 27 30 38
Rice Headed 86 75 85 91
Rice Harvested 15 10 9 13
Peanuts Pegging 96 93 97 97
Oats Harvested 74 65 57 73
Winter Wheat Harvested 93 90 92 96
Spring Wheat Harvested 30 15 14 43
Barley Harvested 34 16 26 53

Crop Condition
Very Poor Poor Fair Good Excellent
Cotton This Week 7 15 33 35 10
Cotton Last Week 6 17 35 33 9
Cotton Last Year 2 13 36 41 8

Spring Wheat This Week 2 4 24 58 12
Spring Wheat Last Week 2 5 24 57 12
Spring Wheat Last Year 1 6 21 58 12

Corn This Week 3 7 21 52 17
Corn Last Week 2 6 21 53 18
Corn Last Year 3 11 30 46 10

Soybeans This Week 2 5 21 56 16
Soybeans Last Week 1 4 21 57 17
Soybeans Last Year 4 10 33 44 9

Sorghum This Week 5 9 29 45 12
Sorghum Last Week 3 9 30 45 13
Sorghum Last Year 1 6 28 52 13

Rice This Week 1 3 20 59 17
Rice Last Week 1 2 21 57 19
Rice Last Year 1 5 26 46 22

Peanuts This Week 1 4 20 62 13
Peanuts Last Week 1 4 22 62 11
Peanuts Last Year 1 5 28 57 9

Barley This Week 1 3 19 59 18
Barley Last Week 1 3 17 59 20
Barley Last Year 2 5 20 58 15

Pastures and Ranges This Week 13 22 33 29 4
Pastures and Ranges Last Week 11 20 35 30 4
Pastures and Ranges Last Year 4 13 29 45 9

WHEAT
General Comments: Winter Wheat markets were higher in reaction to news that Unknown Destinations bought 130,000 tons of HRW. The market assumes that China was the buyer, but some think the sales could have been made to Brazil. Brazil has also been short Wheat and has not been able to source as much as it needs from Argentina this year. Spring Wheat was developing under good growing conditions in both the US and Canada. Yield reports from the central and southern Great Plains have been variable, but generally a little better than expected. Soft Red Winter yields are high. It is still dry in France and Russia and now Spring Wheat areas of Russia are being affected. Russian Winter Wheat yields have improved over time as harvesters move into areas that had better growing conditions. Australia remains in good condition. About half of the Argentine Wheat belt is too dry.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be above normal. Northern areas should see scattered showers. Temperatures will average near to above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average near to above normal. Unknown destinations bought 130,000 tons of US HRW Wheat.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are up with objectives of 525 and 527 September. Support is at 506, 497, and 486 September, with resistance at 517, 529, and 534 September. Trends in Kansas City are up with objectives of 444 and 524 September. Support is at 426, 420, and 406 September, with resistance at 440, 455, and 464 September. Trends in Minneapolis are up with objectives of 522 September. Support is at 502, 495, and 492 September, and resistance is at 512, 520, and 531 September.

RICE
General Comments Rice was higher as the harvest is active near the Gulf Coast. The daily charts imply that higher prices are coming. New crop prospects appear solid for increased production in the coming year. The area is larger and the growing conditions are mostly good. The crops are called in good condition in Mississippi, Arkansas, and Missouri, but it has been dry in the mid south. Texas and southern Louisiana field yield reports are strong. Export demand for the new crop Rice has been slow to develop as buyers wait for lower prices. Domestic demand has also been less. It looks like many buyers bought and hoarded Rice during the first pandemic scare and are now full of supplies.
Overnight News: The Delta should get scattered showers. Temperatures should be near to below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed to up with objectives of 1200, 1207, and 1257 September. Support is at 1177, 1166, and 1160 September, with resistance at 1200, 1207, and 1208 September.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments Corn was higher on the bullish FSA data and as a derecho in Iowa and northern Illinois flattened many Corn crops in both states. FSA showed less than expected certified area for Corn in its August update released late last week, but cautioned that the data was very incomplete due to restrictions imposed by Covid 19. The derecho brought 100 mph winds to parts of Iowa and Illinois and flattened many Corn crops. Some of these crops will not recover. Some silos and other storage and processing facilities were damaged or destroyed. It is not known how much of the Corn can recover. Initial loss estimates are up to a half million bushels lost. Corn in surrounding areas looks good and USDA called for record yield potential in its reports last week. These ideas are now in doubt due to the derecho and the losses it caused. The Pro Farmer Crop Tour found good crop potential in Ohio and eastern Indiana and also in South Dakota and northern Nebraska. The tour will cover western Indiana and eastern Illinois and the rest of Nebraska today.
Overnight News: USDA said that China bought 195,000 tons of US Corn and unknown destinations bought 130,000 tons of US Corn.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are up with objectives of 365 September. Support is at 325, 322, and 319 September, and resistance is at 338, 340, and 351 September. Trends in Oats are mixed to up with objectives of 283 and 305 September. Support is at 272, 268, and 265 September, and resistance is at 277, 280, and 281 September.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans were higher in response to a derecho passing through Iowa and Illinois and bullishly construed FSA certified acres data. The FSA data showed much less than expected certified acres in its August reports. FSA said that the data was very incomplete due to a lack of registration due to Covid 19 restrictions. It found additional support from a derecho that damaged some Soybeans, especially in Iowa and northern Illinois. China was absent from the Soybeans market in the daily reporting system from USDA. China has become a much more active buyer of Soybeans here in the US and has promised to ramp up purchases in order to comply with commitments it made under the Phase One trade deal. Its commitments have been thrown into doubt by the continued political tensions between the two countries. Brazil prices are higher for the rest of the world as it starts to run out of Soybeans to export, so China and the rest of the world will look to the US for additional supplies. The US weather is considered mixed for Soybeans with cooler temperatures and some rain in the north, but dry conditions further to the south. The Pro Farmer crop tour found good production potential on both legs of the tour. Crops were examined in South Dakota and northern Nebraska as well as in western Ohio and eastern Indiana. The tour will cover the rest of Nebraska and western Indiana and eastern Illinois today.
Overnight News: USDA said that unknown destinations bought 130,000 tons of US Soybeans.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are up with objectives of 914 September. Support is at 904, 898, and 888 September, and resistance is at 915, 920, and 923 September. Trends in Soybean Meal are up with no objectives. Support is at 294.00, 290.00, and 287.00 September, and resistance is at 298.00, 301.00, and 302.00 September. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 3100, 3050, and 2980 September, with resistance at 3160, 3190, and 3220 September.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil was higher this morning on reports of Chinese demand before some holidays. Wire reports from Indonesia last week highlighted more than 8% less production and 7% esports from that country. Flooding and a lack of workers for the plantations have been the reasons to see less production in Malaysia. Palm Oil has been getting better demand from importers as world economies slowly open after being closed by the Coronavirus epidemic. Indonesia continues to focus its Palm Oil on internal demand for bio fuels. Canola closed higher on Chicago price action and the weaker Canadian Dollar. The strength in the Canadian Dollar is more about weakness in the US Dollar than anything going on in Canada. Crop conditions are mostly good and farmers have been selling old crop supplies. The weather has been warmer the past couple of weeks and most areas have seen rain.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed to up with objectives of 490.00 and 495.00 November. Support is at 485.00, 481.00, and 480.00 November, with resistance at 489.00, 491.00, and 492.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 2600, 2570, and 2530 November, with resistance at 2730, 2760, and 2790 November.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Mostly dry in all areas. Temperatures should average near to below normal

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
August +53 Sep +137 Sep +58 Sep +73 Nov N/A N/A
September +55 Sep +60 Sep +73 Nov
October +48 Dec +65 Dec +72 Nov

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Aug 14
WINNIPEG, Aug. 14 (MarketsFarm) – The following are the closing
cash canola prices from ICE Futures. Source: ICE Futures
Price Basis Contract Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 450.70 -13.00 Nov 2020 up 0.30
Basis: Thunder Bay 498.80 15.00 Nov 2020 dn 0.90
Basis: Vancouver 509.80 25.00 Nov 2020 dn 0.90
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – Aug 18
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Tuesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sept 710.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 670.00 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 657.50 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 647.50 +05.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sept 712.50 00.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 672.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 660.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 650.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sep 707.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sep 625.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sep 2,820.00 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sep 182.00 +02.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.1815)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Aug 18
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 190,253 lots, or 8.54 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-20 4,651 4,693 4,634 4,658 4,660 4,663 3 90,362 62,042
Nov-20 4,340 4,363 4,325 4,350 4,330 4,342 12 2,783 4,413
Jan-21 4,345 4,360 4,310 4,339 4,323 4,334 11 94,763 87,475
Mar-21 4,334 4,438 4,308 4,352 4,328 4,345 17 1,009 711
May-21 4,368 4,379 4,336 4,358 4,346 4,351 5 834 4,715
Jul-21 4,346 4,378 4,341 4,357 4,348 4,359 11 502 437
Corn
Turnover: 1,142,562 lots, or 26.34 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-20 2,270 2,288 2,261 2,263 2,265 2,274 9 52,341 71,442
Nov-20 2,284 2,303 2,273 2,274 2,280 2,288 8 44,238 56,719
Jan-21 2,299 2,322 2,286 2,290 2,295 2,302 7 908,989 1,157,236
Mar-21 2,322 2,347 2,313 2,316 2,317 2,328 11 24,176 11,774
May-21 2,335 2,358 2,325 2,330 2,330 2,340 10 98,293 334,269
Jul-21 2,420 2,420 2,352 2,357 2,354 2,364 10 14,525 37,538
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,283,768 lots, or 37.04 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-20 2,863 2,877 2,850 2,860 2,850 2,862 12 159,260 210,649
Nov-20 2,915 2,915 2,884 2,892 2,886 2,897 11 73,257 70,026
Dec-20 2,910 2,933 2,905 2,914 2,900 2,917 17 30,709 7,550
Jan-21 2,910 2,937 2,908 2,916 2,899 2,920 21 822,376 1,356,705
Mar-21 2,782 2,806 2,779 2,785 2,771 2,793 22 3,608 9,609
May-21 2,741 2,761 2,736 2,742 2,731 2,748 17 194,411 724,961
Jul-21 2,771 2,779 2,760 2,760 2,751 2,767 16 36 649
Aug-21 2,838 2,838 2,793 2,803 2,809 2,816 7 111 76
Palm Oil
Turnover: 987,315 lots, or 56.55 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-20 5,936 5,954 5,852 5,878 5,892 5,914 22 151,567 78,587
Oct-20 5,844 5,866 5,752 5,836 5,826 5,820 -6 17,519 10,338
Nov-20 5,772 5,812 5,716 5,764 5,790 5,774 -16 10,568 5,225
Dec-20 5,722 5,756 5,662 5,708 5,748 5,716 -32 6,754 1,709
Jan-21 5,706 5,736 5,632 5,678 5,692 5,690 -2 786,637 376,989
Feb-21 5,634 5,642 5,590 5,590 5,508 5,620 112 5 119
Mar-21 5,646 5,646 5,646 5,646 5,600 5,646 46 3 17
Apr-21 – – – 5,576 5,556 5,576 20 0 152
May-21 5,620 5,650 5,566 5,610 5,628 5,620 -8 14,262 29,447
Jun-21 – – – 5,560 5,560 5,560 0 0 2
Jul-21 – – – 5,696 5,696 5,696 0 0 5
Aug-21 – – – 5,688 5,696 5,688 -8 0 0
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 649,664 lots, or 42.04 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-20 6,492 6,542 6,454 6,500 6,454 6,502 48 76,624 70,002
Nov-20 6,500 6,564 6,486 6,542 6,490 6,536 46 13,933 11,161
Dec-20 6,470 6,534 6,458 6,508 6,466 6,508 42 10,686 4,087
Jan-21 6,468 6,506 6,422 6,474 6,434 6,470 36 521,434 602,678
Mar-21 6,410 6,446 6,368 6,408 6,392 6,410 18 6,697 676
May-21 6,320 6,354 6,292 6,338 6,290 6,328 38 20,290 90,179
Jul-21 – – – 6,316 6,316 6,316 0 0 5
Aug-21 – – – 6,304 6,304 6,304 0 0 0
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.


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