DJ USDA Report: Summary for U.S. Quarterly Grain Stocks
The following are key numbers from the USDA’s Quarterly Grain, Soybean Stockpiles and how the government’s estimates compared with analysts’ forecasts in a Wall Street Journal survey.
U.S. Stockpiles on Sept. 1, 2020 (million bushels)
Actual Average USDA
USDA Forecast Range June 2020
Corn 1,995 2,243 2,120-2,355 5,019
Soybeans 523 575 559-608 1,381
Wheat 2,159 2,163 925-2,380 1,028

DJ USDA Report: Summary for U.S. Wheat Production
The following are key numbers from the USDA’s crop report and how the government’s estimates compared to analysts’ forecasts in a Wall Street Journal survey.
U.S. Wheat Production (million bushels)
Actual Average
USDA Forecast Range USDA August
All Wheat 1,826 1,835 1,817-1,850 1,838
Winter Wheat 1,171 1,195 1,185-1,204 1,198
Hard Red Winter 659 692 684-700 695
Soft Red Winter 266 276 272-280 277
White Winter 246 227 224-230 226
Other Spring 586 578 568-590 577
Durum 69 62 60-64 62

DJ U.S. Export Sales: Weekly Sales Totals – Oct 1
For the week ended Sep 24, in thousand metric tons, except cotton in
thousand running bales. Net changes in commitments are gross sales,
less cancellations, buy-backs and other downward adjustments. Total
commitments are total export shipments plus total sales.
The marketing year for wheat and barley began Jun 1, cotton and
and rice Aug 1, corn, soybeans and sorghum Sep 1, and soymeal and
soyoil Oct 1. Source: USDA
wk’s net chg total
in commitments commitments undlvd sales
this yr next yr this yr last yr this yr next yr
wheat 506.3 1.3 13990.2 12904.5 5202.3 18.5
hrw 282.2 0.0 5291.4 4880.0 1633.2 10.9
srw 2.8 1.3 1127.5 1672.8 321.0 2.6
hrs 107.4 0.0 4055.5 3552.9 1709.8 5.0
white 116.2 0.0 2983.5 2354.2 1304.5 0.0
durum -2.3 0.0 532.4 444.6 233.8 0.0
corn 2027.1 0.0 24622.2 9711.5 21879.2 206.0
soybeans 2591.2 0.0 38128.9 14159.0 33447.8 60.0
soymeal 13.6 523.1 12122.2 12243.1 520.2 2885.7
soyoil 6.3 0.6 1287.7 925.9 68.7 122.9
upland cotton 233.8 20.6 7956.0 8740.3 5785.9 470.6
pima cotton 19.5 0.0 308.7 188.4 221.3 0.7
sorghum 38.8 136.0 2802.7 135.2 2567.6 136.0
barley 0.0 0.0 42.1 57.5 33.6 0.0
rice 127.1 0.0 751.4 1234.4 547.3 0.0

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – Oct 1
Source: CME Group
Contract Quantity Next Trade
Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date Available
SOYBEAN MEAL October Oct. 02, 2020 22 Aug 28, 2020

WHEAT
General Comments: Winter Wheat markets closed higher with HRW and SRW the strongest markets. HRS closed higher but did not rally as much as the winter markets. USDA found that ending stocks levels were close to projections of the trade. However, there were differences in the mix, with less Winter Wheat production and more Spring Wheat production. The markets also rallied on overseas prices and prices for Corn and Soybeans in Chicago. The trade is watching the weather and growing conditions around the world as well as the world Wheat price. World demand for US Wheat depends mostly on lower prices for US Wheat to compete with Russia, Europe, and other sellers and a weaker US Dollar. The overseas weather is mixed. Western Europe is likely to get some rains in the short term, but southern Russia could stay dry. Some showers are forecast for Ukraine this week. The country has also been dry. These areas are trying to plant the next Winter Wheat crop but the dry weather and the dry soils are keeping farmers out of the fields. Argentina got some very beneficial rains over the weekend. Australia has seen some cold temperatures in recent days and some southern growing areas could have seen a frost or a freeze. Conditions are improved in the US after some rains fell in the Great Plains.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be near to below normal. Northern areas should see isolated showers. Temperatures will average near to below normal. The Canadian Prairies should see isolated showers. Temperatures should average near to below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are up with no objectives. Support is at 578, 568, and 557 December, with resistance at 587, 590, and 599 December. Trends in Kansas City are up with no objectives. Support is at 509, 500, and 490 December, with resistance at 515, 525, and 528 December. Trends in Minneapolis are up with no objectives. Support is at 536, 531, and 523 December, and resistance is at 547, 549, and 553 December.

RICE
General Comments Rice was slightly lower in range trading. The harvest has been active in most states with good field yields reported. Quality is said to be very good, especially in Arkansas. Milling yields are higher and appearance is very good with minimal chalk or peck showing.
Overnight News: The Delta should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1237, 1232, and 1222 November, with resistance at 1260, 1267, and 1290 November.

DJ USDA World Market Rice Prices – Sep 30
USDA today announced the prevailing world market prices
of milled and rough rice, adjusted for U.S. milling yields
and location, and the resulting marketing loan gain (MLG)
and loan deficiency payment LDP) rates. Source: USDA
—–World Price—– MLG/LDP Rate
Milled Value Rough Rough
($/cwt) ($/cwt) ($/cwt)
Long Grain 16.60 10.60 0.00
Medium/Short Grain 16.30 10.97 0.00
Brokens 10.53 —- —-

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn was and Oats were higher. USDA surprised the market by reporting quarterly stocks well below the lowest trade guess. It was a bullish surprise. Demand is holding strong for exports, but it is harvest time and yield reports have been mixed but generally strong. The demand has come primarily from China as the state companies bought for the reserve, but that buying appears to be completed now. Mexico was the strongest importer of US Corn last month. USDA has found less damage to crops in Iowa and northern Illinois due to the drought and derecho winds that hit both areas a month ago. That allowed for the higher yield, production, and ending stocks estimates. The harvest has expanded into the Midwest with very good harvest conditions. The yield reports appear to be good overall. The harvest will produce a good crop, but maybe not a great crop.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are up with objectives of 386 December. Support is at 373, 370, and 367 December, and resistance is at 383, 386, and 389 December. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 279, 275, and 270 December, and resistance is at 289, 291, and 294 December.

DJ USDA Crop Production: U.S. Oats-Sep 30
Oats: Yield and Production United States, 2019-20
===========================================================================
Yield Production
State ====================================================================
2019 2020 2020 2019 2020 2020
Aug 1 Final Aug 1 Final
===========================================================================
========== Bushels ======== ======== 1,000 Bushels ========
U.S. 64.3 65.0 65.1 53,258 64,907 65,355
===========================================================================
Oats: Area Planted and Harvested United States, 2019-20
===========================================================================
Area Planted 1/ Area Harvested
State ====================================================================
2019 2020 2019 2020 2020
Aug 1 Final
===========================================================================
======== 1,000 Acres ======
U.S. 2,830 2,984 828 998 1,004
===========================================================================
(NA) Not available.
1/ Includes area planted in preceding fall.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans and the products were higher due to the USDA quarterly stocks report. USDA reported stocks that were well below the lowest trade guess and these were a bullish surprise. USDQA changed its production estimate for last year to 3.552 billion bushels. Funds and other speculators were the best Buyers in Soybeans. Soybeans were the leader to the upside due to the strong Chinese demand until last week. Now it appears that China is away from the market. The trade generally expects China to shift its buying back to Brazil in the near future, but central and northern Brazil has been dry and some of the early planting has been delayed. The lack of rain might keep the Chinese buying in the US for a little longer, but only for the crushers and not for the reserve. Buying volumes should be less from China and the weekly export sales report should start to reflect less demand this week;
Overnight News: Egypt bought 120,000 tons of US Soybeans.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are up with objectives of 1070 November. Support is at 1013, 995, and 993 November, and resistance is at 1035, 1037, and 1048 November. Trends in Soybean Meal are up with no objectives. Support is at 340.00, 335.00, and 330.00 December, and resistance is at 350.00, 353.00, and 356.00 December. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 3220, 3210, and 3170 December, with resistance at 3400, 3470, and 3550 December.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil closed higher on Chicago price action and strong export demand. It is seasonally a time for trees to produce more due to more regular rains. Getting workers to do the harvest has been hard, though, and the lack of labor has been a big problem. At least some of the plantation owners have asked for more migrant workers to cover the lack of workers that can be sourced locally. Demand reports from the private surveyors are stronger this month. China has been a major buyer as vegetable oils prices inside the country have been very strong. Most importers seem to have enough stocks on hand due to the Coronavirus pandemic. Canola was higher with Chicago. Canola farmers and speculators are selling due to harvest pressure. There is still a lot of uncertainty over the Canola yields. The Canadian Dollar was higher.
Overnight News: SGS said that Malaysian Palm Oil exports are now 1.604 million tons so far this month, from 1.442 million tons last mionth.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 514.00, 508.00, and 505.00 November, with resistance at 521.00, 524.00, and 528.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are down with objectives of 2630 and 2490 December. Support is at 2700, 2670, and 2590 December, with resistance at 2780, 2830, and 2870 December.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Occasional scattered showers, mostly near the weekend. Temperatures should average near to below normal

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
September +65 Dec +170 Dec +60 Sep +71 Nov +15 Dec N/A
October +66 Dec +60 Dec +75 Nov
November +69 Dec +65 Dec +78 Nov

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Sep 30
ICE Canola Cash Close
WINNIPEG– The following are the closing cash canola prices
from ICE Futures for Sept. 30, 2020.
Source: ICE Futures
CANOLA
1 Canada NCC Best Bid
Spot Price Basis Contract Change
*Par Region 474.00 -38.00 Nov 20 dn 2.30
Basis: Thunder Bay 535.40 15.00 Nov 20 up 8.40
Basis: Vancouver 546.40 26.00 Nov 20 up 8.40
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada ([email protected], or
204-414-9084)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – Oct 1
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Thursday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 745.00 +15.00 Unquoted – –
Nov 722.50 — Unquoted – –
Dec 712.50 — Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 690.00 +20.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 670.00 +17.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 747.50 +15.00 Unquoted – –
Nov 725.00 — Unquoted – –
Dec 715.00 — Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 692.50 +20.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 672.50 +17.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 745.00 +15.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 685.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 2,940.00 +60.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 192.00 +02.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.1480)