WHEAT
General Comments: Winter Wheat markets were higher and made new highs for the move Last week. USDA released its stocks estimates and stocks were close to expectations at 2.158 billion bushels. US Whet production for 2020 was estimated by USDA at 1.83 billion bushels, down 5% from 2019. Soft Red Winter and Hard Red Winter production were down, but increases were noted for White Winter, Durum, and Other Spring Wheat. World demand for US Wheat depends mostly on lower prices for US Wheat to compete with Russia, Europe, and other sellers. The overseas weather is mixed. Western Europe is likely to get some big rains in the short term, but southern Russia could stay dry. Some showers are forecast for Ukraine this week. The country has also been dry. These areas are trying to plant the next Winter Wheat crop but the dry weather and the dry soils are keeping farmers out of the fields. Less production is likely in Argentina due to drought. About quarter of Argentine growing areas are affected after some beneficial rains in some areas last week. Conditions are improved in the US after some rains fell in the Great Plains but the western Great Plains remains mostly hot and dry. The Midwest has had good rains.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be near to below normal. Northern areas should see isolated showers. Temperatures will average near to below normal. The Canadian Prairies should see isolated showers. Temperatures should average near to above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to up with no objectives. Support is at 561, 557, and 552 December, with resistance at 578, 587, and 590 December. Trends in Kansas City are up with no objectives. Support is at 498, 490, and 483 December, with resistance at 515, 525, and 528 December. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 531, 523, and 519 December, and resistance is at 540, 547, and 549 December.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of September 29, 2020
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
WHEAT-SRW – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #001602 Open Interest is 464,516
: Positions :
: 64,768 80,935 139,074 48,439 153,870 183,476 44,934 435,757 418,812: 28,759 45,704
: Changes from: September 22, 2020 (Change in open interest: -29,057) :
: -7,112 -4,379 -18,505 -2,399 -4,072 -602 -2,268 -28,618 -29,224: -439 167
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 13.9 17.4 29.9 10.4 33.1 39.5 9.7 93.8 90.2: 6.2 9.8
: Total Traders: 370 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 79 109 104 71 114 48 24 272 286:
——————————————————————————————————————-

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of September 29, 2020
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
WHEAT-HRW – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #001612 Open Interest is 239,008
: Positions :
: 50,220 49,241 47,186 48,909 109,698 72,798 11,418 219,113 217,543: 19,895 21,465
: Changes from: September 22, 2020 (Change in open interest: -10,287) :
: -1,181 3,793 -8,267 -74 -5,879 -815 -1,395 -10,337 -11,747: 50 1,460
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 21.0 20.6 19.7 20.5 45.9 30.5 4.8 91.7 91.0: 8.3 9.0
: Total Traders: 248 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 56 51 52 68 83 35 12 187 175:
——————————————————————————————————————-

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of September 29, 2020
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
WHEAT-HRSpring – MINNEAPOLIS GRAIN EXCHANGE (CONTRACTS OF 5,000 BUSHELS) :
CFTC Code #001626 Open Interest is 63,612 :
: Positions :
: 29,188 28,664 2,806 5 286 10,912 15,742 1,319 4,257 2,701 3,077 :
: Changes from: September 22, 2020 :
: 1,181 -618 298 -190 -4 438 2,970 -654 -278 -340 743 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 45.9 45.1 4.4 0.0 0.4 17.2 24.7 2.1 6.7 4.2 4.8 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 93 :
: 37 37 . . . 10 12 4 8 5 7 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of September 29, 2020
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
BLACK SEA WHEAT FINANCIAL – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE 50 Metric Tons :
CFTC Code #00160F Open Interest is 25,477 :
: Positions :
: 9,001 22,901 0 653 57 14,673 0 95 356 160 743 :
: Changes from: September 22, 2020 :
: 563 147 0 100 0 -783 0 0 178 -52 33 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 35.3 89.9 0.0 2.6 0.2 57.6 0.0 0.4 1.4 0.6 2.9 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 35 :
: 11 24 0 . . 6 0 . . . . :
—————————————————————————————————————-

RICE
General Comments Rice was slightly higher last week as the harvest pressure went against improved demand ideas. US export demand was very strong last week with over 121,000 tons sold. Brazil was the main buyer with over 70,000 tons purchased. Mexico and Honduras were also good buyers. There was talk in the market that Iraq had tendered, but there was no result announced. The rebound in demand supported futures and pushed the market to test recent highs for the move. The harvest has been active in most states with good field yields reported. Southern Louisiana and Texas are down with the first crop harvest and are waiting for he second crop to mature. Quality is said to be very good, especially in Arkansas. Milling yields are higher and appearance is very good with minimal chalk or peck showing.
Overnight News: The Delta should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1239, 1237, and 1222 November, with resistance at 1260, 1267, and 1290 November.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of September 29, 2020
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
ROUGH RICE – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE (CONTRACTS OF 200,000 POUNDS) :
CFTC Code #039601 Open Interest is 10,166 :
: Positions :
: 4,528 8,565 100 0 0 2,546 467 0 1,007 150 263 :
: Changes from: September 22, 2020 :
: -175 -325 -2 0 0 95 0 0 -172 9 -61 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 44.5 84.3 1.0 0.0 0.0 25.0 4.6 0.0 9.9 1.5 2.6 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 44 :
: 13 16 . 0 0 11 . 0 8 . . :
—————————————————————————————————————-

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn moved higher in response to the bullish USDA stocks in all positions reports. USDA said that Corn stocks were 1.995 billion bushels, below the average trade guess and below the lowest trade guess. It was much less than what USDA had forecast in the WASDE reports just a month earlier. Demand is holding strong for exports, but it is harvest time and initial yield reports have been mixed but generally strong. The demand has come primarily from China as the state companies bought for the reserve, but that buying appears to be almost complete now. The harvest is still concentrated in the southeast and Delta for now, but has expanded into the Midwest with very good harvest conditions. The Midwest harvest has been slow as the Corn is slow to dry down. The yield reports have been mixed but appear to be good overall. The harvest will produce a good crop, but maybe not a great crop.
Overnight News: Mexico bought 160,020 tons of US Corn.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are up with objectives of 386 December. Support is at 373, 370, and 367 December, and resistance is at 386, 389, and 392 December. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 279, 275, and 270 December, and resistance is at 286, 289, and 291 December.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of September 29, 2020
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
CORN – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #002602 Open Interest is 1,879,842
: Positions :
: 232,957 144,880 471,870 572,230 916,941 434,916 98,956 1,711,973 1,632,647: 167,869 247,195
: Changes from: September 22, 2020 (Change in open interest: -32,464) :
: -135 -12,602 -12,440 9,539 12,008 -21,641 -12,781 -24,677 -25,816: -7,787 -6,648
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 12.4 7.7 25.1 30.4 48.8 23.1 5.3 91.1 86.9: 8.9 13.1
: Total Traders: 808 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 168 142 172 328 371 48 27 645 623:
——————————————————————————————————————-

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of September 29, 2020
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
OATS – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE (CONTRACTS OF 5,000 BUSHELS) :
CFTC Code #004603 Open Interest is 5,693 :
: Positions :
: 1,481 4,668 124 0 0 1,219 0 0 622 4 291 :
: Changes from: September 22, 2020 :
: 190 -125 -2 0 0 56 0 0 -38 -14 -19 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 26.0 82.0 2.2 0.0 0.0 21.4 0.0 0.0 10.9 0.1 5.1 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 27 :
: 8 10 . 0 0 8 0 0 4 . . :
—————————————————————————————————————-

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans and Soybean Meal closed higher for the week in reaction to the USDA stocks in all positions report. The report showed US Soybeans stocks at 523 million bushels, lower than the average trade guess and lower than the lowest trade guess. The harvest has started to expand and reports indicated that the producer is selling Soybeans right off the combine or is delivering against previous contracts. Chinese buying for the reserve is almost finished. Ideas are that individual crushers are still with positions to buy. Soybeans were the leader to the upside due to the strong Chinese demand until this week. The trade generally expects China to shift its buying back to Brazil in the near future, but Brazil has been hot and dry and parts of Argentina have also been dry and some of the early planting has been delayed. That might keep the Chinese buying in the US for a little longer, but only for the crushers and not for the reserve. Buying volumes should be less from China and the weekly export sales report should start to reflect less demand in the near future.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are up with objectives of 1070 November. Support is at 1013, 995, and 993 November, and resistance is at 1035, 1037, and 1048 November. Trends in Soybean Meal are up with no objectives. Support is at 340.00, 335.00, and 330.00 December, and resistance is at 350.00, 353.00, and 356.00 December. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 3220, 3210, and 3170 December, with resistance at 3340, 3400, and 3470 December.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of September 29, 2020
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SOYBEANS – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #005602 Open Interest is 1,190,425
: Positions :
: 225,120 44,671 298,668 329,570 686,034 265,879 62,725 1,119,237 1,092,098: 71,189 98,328
: Changes from: September 22, 2020 (Change in open interest: -28,016) :
: 11,867 -1,014 -30,589 -5,018 6,785 -175 -4,756 -23,915 -29,574: -4,102 1,558
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 18.9 3.8 25.1 27.7 57.6 22.3 5.3 94.0 91.7: 6.0 8.3
: Total Traders: 682 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 199 119 189 206 265 54 23 547 527:
——————————————————————————————————————-

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of September 29, 2020
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SOYBEAN OIL – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #007601 Open Interest is 517,491
: Positions :
: 94,473 18,090 103,898 133,968 342,376 144,214 27,031 476,553 491,395: 40,938 26,096
: Changes from: September 22, 2020 (Change in open interest: -10,703) :
: -8,537 -897 3,845 -2,407 -13,056 2,721 1,024 -4,377 -9,085: -6,326 -1,618
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 18.3 3.5 20.1 25.9 66.2 27.9 5.2 92.1 95.0: 7.9 5.0
: Total Traders: 303 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 98 43 91 76 83 40 22 258 208:
——————————————————————————————————————-

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of September 29, 2020
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SOYBEAN MEAL – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #026603 Open Interest is 499,034
: Positions :
: 77,413 17,515 105,631 144,563 322,504 119,981 23,922 447,588 469,573: 51,446 29,461
: Changes from: September 22, 2020 (Change in open interest: -40,809) :
: 794 -1,696 -19,886 -25,125 -17,828 2,069 -4,082 -42,148 -43,492: 1,339 2,683
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 15.5 3.5 21.2 29.0 64.6 24.0 4.8 89.7 94.1: 10.3 5.9
: Total Traders: 278 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 90 35 73 81 88 37 18 236 192:
——————————————————————————————————————-

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil closed lower on crude oil price action and nes that the president had contracted the Covid 19. It is seasonally a time for trees to produce more due to more regular rains. Getting workers to do the harvest has been hard, though, and the lack of labor has been a big problem. At least some of the plantation owners have asked for more migrant workers to cover the lack of workers that can be sourced locally. Demand reports from the private surveyors are stronger this month. China has been a major buyer as vegetable oils prices inside the country have been very strong. Most importers seem to have enough stocks on hand due to the Coronavirus pandemic. Canola was lower. Canola farmers and speculators are selling due to harvest pressure. There is still a lot of uncertainty over the Canola yields. The Canadian Dollar was higher.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 514.00, 508.00, and 505.00 November, with resistance at 521.00, 524.00, and 528.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 2700, 2670, and 2590 December, with resistance at 2830, 2870, and 2920 December.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of September 29, 2020
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
CANOLA – ICE FUTURES U.S. (20 Metric Tonnes) :
CFTC Code #135731 Open Interest is 245,378 :
: Positions :
: 149,853 199,276 1,609 3,659 1,187 58,753 1,923 7,614 7,723 11,532 17,349 :
: Changes from: September 22, 2020 :
: -9,928 -8,083 1,507 -1,259 1,046 850 590 394 -862 254 -885 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 61.1 81.2 0.7 1.5 0.5 23.9 0.8 3.1 3.1 4.7 7.1 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 310 :
: 37 82 4 6 . 48 12 12 37 109 26 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

DJ Canadian Grain Handling Summary – Oct 1
WINNIPEG–The following are Canadian grain handling summary
statistics for the week ended Sept. 27, 2020. Figures in thousands of
metric tons.
Source: Canadian Grain Commission.
Durum
Wheat Wheat Oats Barley Flax Canola Peas Corn Total*
COMMERCIAL STOCKS
This Week 2586.3 853.7 417.5 516.6 30.8 1660.9 558.3 36.5 7448.9
Week Ago 2688.0 817.4 387.2 472.7 27.8 1433.5 532.6 39.2 7136.9
Year Ago 1985.0 645.9 198.6 376.2 16.3 894.7 454.1 50.0 5015.0
PRODUCER DELIVERIES
This Week 487.1 96.9 88.3 114.1 9.9 676.1 80.5 8.6 1744.2
Week Ago 508.8 133.4 83.7 113.9 8.4 734.1 104.4 6.3 1818.6
To Date 3336.5 759.0 603.9 788.6 37.7 3570.2 1357.4 63.8 11482.2
Year Ago 2917.7 629.6 475.8 541.5 14.0 2543.9 1085.7 66.9 8737.8
TERMINAL RECEIPTS
This Week 395.4 114.0 12.6 65.2 0.4 301.4 130.4 0.0 1212.4
Week Ago 474.2 88.5 27.4 75.3 0.2 269.5 148.5 2.1 1159.6
To Date 4478.0 748.7 95.0 415.1 17.4 1859.3 847.4 15.1 9089.4
Year Ago 2820.1 946.4 75.7 148.9 0.7 1326.7 680.3 7.2 6567.2
EXPORTS
This Week 374.9 80.5 33.0 96.9 1.8 291.1 76.8 0.0 1036.1
Week Ago 314.5 6.6 54.0 83.9 0.8 165.4 203.5 0.0 886.3
To Date 3222.9 436.1 295.2 409.6 41.9 1656.4 733.3 10.1 7166.6
Year Ago 2455.5 758.0 243.6 157.8 7.7 1148.7 606.2 12.5 6007.0
DOMESTIC DISAPPEARANCE
This Week 102.2 3.2 14.1 22.1 1.6 200.1 4.0 15.7 386.2
Week Ago 111.4 24.5 13.6 22.4 0.9 166.1 4.3 16.7 374.6
To Date 890.1 65.8 103.7 180.2 10.2 1555.7 27.5 151.5 3166.0
Year Ago 684.8 52.4 53.1 198.1 6.5 1605.1 27.3 146.0 2966.4
*Totals include data from other crops not shown including rye, soybeans,
canaryseed, mustard seed, beans, lentils and chickpeas.
Source: Commodity News Service Canada ([email protected], or 204-414-
9084)

Midwest Weather Forecast: Occasional scattered showers, mostly near the weekend. Temperatures should average near to below normal

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
October +66 Dec +172 Dec +60 Dec +73 Nov +15 Dec N/A
November +68 Dec +65 Dec +79 Nov
December +69 Dec +65 Dec +77 Jan

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Oct 2
WINNIPEG–The following are the closing cash canola prices
from ICE Futures for Oct. 2, 2020.
Source: ICE Futures
CANOLA
1 Canada NCC Best Bid
Spot Price Basis Contract Change
*Par Region 488.30 -29.00 Nov 20 up 5.90
Basis: Thunder Bay 532.10 15.00 Nov 20 dn 0.20
Basis: Vancouver 543.10 26.00 Nov 20 dn 0.20
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada ([email protected], or
204-414-9084)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – Oct 5
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Monday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 730.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Nov 710.00 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Dec 692.50 00.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 667.50 +07.50 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 655.00 +07.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 732.50 00.00 Unquoted – –
Nov 712.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Dec 695.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 670.00 +07.50 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 657.50 +07.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 735.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 675.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 2,890.00 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 187.00 -01.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.150)