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3yrs ago Managed Futures blog.pricegroup Views: 765

WHEAT
General Comments: Winter Wheat markets were higher as world market prices held at higher levels. Australian supplies have also increased with its harvest mow complete, nut the increased offers have done little to dent the world price. US weather is mixed with good conditions in the majority of the country but still dry conditions in the western Great Plains. Parts of eastern Ukraine and southern Russia are getting some showers too. These have been late to help much with establishment but will help with soil moisture into the Spring. Western Australia conditions are improving after some recent rains. The demand has held well and world prices remain high. The market in Russia has remained high on limited supply as farmer hold the Wheat back due to the drought.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get dry weather. Temperatures should be above normal. Northern areas should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will be near to above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see scattered snow showers. Temperatures should average near to below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to up with objectives of 630, 65, and 655 December. Support is at 598, 594, and 590 December, with resistance at 613, 616, and 626 December. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 555, 542, and 538 December, with resistance at 562, 569, and 581 December. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 540, 534, and 530 December, and resistance is at 557, 561, and 566 December.

RICE
General Comments: Rice close a little lower after another quiet session. The cash market is slow and the lack of business is reflected in futures volumes traded. Reports indicate that domestic demand has been poor to average with better consumer demand more than offset by much less demand from schools and other institutions. The harvest is over in northern states with good field yields reported. Southern Louisiana and Texas are almost done harvesting the second crop and yield reports have been good. Quality is said to be very good everywhere.
Overnight News: The Delta should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be near to above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1223, 1220, and 1214 January, with resistance at 1248, 1250, and 1257 January.

DJ USDA World Market Rice Prices – Nov 25
USDA today announced the prevailing world market prices
of milled and rough rice, adjusted for U.S. milling yields
and location, and the resulting marketing loan gain (MLG)
and loan deficiency payment LDP) rates. Source: USDA
—–World Price—– MLG/LDP Rate
Milled Value Rough Rough
($/cwt) ($/cwt) ($/cwt)
Long Grain 16.98 10.84 0.00
Medium/Short Grain 16.67 11.22 0.00
Brokens 10.77 —- —-

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn was mixed, with nearby months a little lower and deferred months a little higher. Oats were lower and trends are down on the daily charts. US weather was great for harvesting last week with warm and dry conditions for much of the Midwest. The harvest should be all but over now so weather will have less importance soon. Yield reports have generally been good except for the drought and derecho areas of Iowa. Ukraine has been in drought and central and northern Brazil have also experienced drought. Better conditions are seen din Argentina and far southern Brazil due to rains this week There has been some damage to crops in these areas. The drought is especially serious in South America for the first Corn crop but the second crop could also be affected due to late planting in central and northern Brazil. Dry weather has delayed the Soybeans planting and that will delay the second Corn planting later. Farmers will not plant if it gets too late in the year as the rains will shut off before the crop gets home.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 417, 412, and 404 December, and resistance is at 431, 434, and 437 December. Trends in Oats are down with objectives of 279 and 277 December. Support is at 283, 279, and 278 December, and resistance is at 291, 295, and 300 December.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybean Meal closed a little higher on the warm and dry weather in South America. Soybeans was mixed and Soybean Oil was lower. Production potential is being threatened in Brazil due to the lack of rainfall. It is drier again in central Brazil and farther to the north, but conditions are a little better in far southern Brazil and Argentina. The world will need very strong production from South America to meet the projected demand, but the weather is hurting production ideas. The stocks to use ration for Soybeans is now very small and the situation is the tightest projected in years. Higher Soybeans prices are likely. There was talk that China had washed out on a couple of sales of Soybeans. China has not appeared in the daily sales announcements from USDA in over three weeks except for one time, but the country was once again a significant buyer in the weekly export sales report. China still needs to buy for crushers, but appears to have bought what was necessary for the reserve. The weather in the US is good for any remaining harvest as it was drier last week.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are up with objectives of 1203 January. Support is at 1168, 1162, and 1161 January, and resistance is at 1200, 1208, and 1220 January. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to up with objectives of 405.00 December. Support is at 391.00, 384.00, and 380.00 December, and resistance is at 401.00, 404.00, and 407.00 December. Trends in Soybean Oil are up with objectives of 3960 December. Support is at 3760, 3720, and 3660 December, with resistance at 3930, 3960, and 3990 December.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil closed lower on weakness in the outside markets. Palm Oil prices are relatively high right now so importers are looking at importing Soybean Oil instead due to cost and quality. Chart trends are still up. It is seasonally a time for trees to produce more due to more regular rains. Getting workers to do the harvest remains hard and the lack of labor has been a big problem. Canola was lower along with Chicago and Malaysia. Very strong Palm Oil prices have made buying Soybean and Canola oils the better option. Trends are still up. Canola farmers have reduced selling by now so demand is chasing after fewer supplies. Harvest in the Prairies is done and yields are reported to be very strong.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are up with no objectives. Support is at 572.00, 564.00, and 560.00 January, with resistance at 586.00, 589.00, and 592.00 January. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 3240, 3220, and 3200 February, with resistance at 3320, 3420, and 3440 February.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Mostly dry this week and rain this weekend. Temperatures should average near to below normal

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
November +69 Dec +155 Dec +85 Dec +57 Jan +15 Dec N/A
December +70 Dec +90 Dec +65 Jan
January +72 Mar +90 Mar +74 Jan

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Nov 24
WINNIPEG — The following are the closing cash
canola prices from ICE Futures.
Source: ICE Futures
Price Basis Contract Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 551.70 -32.40 Jan 2021 up 7.60
Basis: Thunder Bay 601.80 25.00 Jan 2021 dn 7.30
Basis: Vancouver 611.80 35.00 Jan 2021 dn 7.30
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada
([email protected], 204-414-9084, or cell
204-782-5944)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – Nov 25
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Wednesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Dec 882.50 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 842.50 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 792.50 +12.50 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 750.00 +10.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Dec 885.00 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 845.00 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 795.00 +12.50 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 752.50 +10.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Dec 885.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Dec 760.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Dec 3,480.00 +30.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Dec 275.00 -02.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.083)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Nov 25
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 221,584 lots, or 11.99 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-21 5,390 5,458 5,365 5,448 5,375 5,416 41 192,382 127,801
Mar-21 5,386 5,429 5,363 5,409 5,379 5,394 15 3,344 3,953
May-21 5,350 5,394 5,341 5,380 5,354 5,371 17 24,187 32,265
Jul-21 5,363 5,406 5,355 5,396 5,373 5,383 10 1,335 4,635
Sep-21 5,295 5,345 5,295 5,328 5,317 5,325 8 335 1,710
Nov-21 5,227 5,227 5,227 5,227 5,221 5,227 6 1 11
Corn
Turnover: 1,131,375 lots, or 29.53 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-21 2,570 2,590 2,551 2,575 2,588 2,572 -16 516,376 620,656
Mar-21 2,602 2,620 2,581 2,606 2,617 2,607 -10 47,699 38,206
May-21 2,630 2,659 2,615 2,643 2,653 2,639 -14 441,793 901,640
Jul-21 2,675 2,681 2,640 2,665 2,679 2,666 -13 89,628 119,121
Sep-21 2,645 2,664 2,627 2,646 2,663 2,649 -14 32,739 177,645
Nov-21 2,598 2,605 2,578 2,588 2,609 2,593 -16 3,140 5,790
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,707,613 lots, or 5.49 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Dec-20 3,154 3,155 3,127 3,139 3,173 3,140 -33 37 5,128
Jan-21 3,161 3,180 3,141 3,165 3,190 3,159 -31 393,590 632,030
Mar-21 3,200 3,211 3,175 3,198 3,221 3,192 -29 36,433 34,369
May-21 3,230 3,253 3,214 3,237 3,249 3,233 -16 987,154 1,728,524
Jul-21 3,205 3,216 3,182 3,208 3,211 3,196 -15 178,777 51,096
Aug-21 3,246 3,257 3,222 3,251 3,246 3,237 -9 26,411 12,386
Sep-21 3,245 3,267 3,231 3,257 3,258 3,250 -8 85,008 322,707
Nov-21 3,212 3,229 3,196 3,214 3,222 3,212 -10 203 511
Palm Oil
Turnover: 1,263,448 lots, or 84.05 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Dec-20 6,650 6,720 6,616 6,630 6,564 6,656 92 47 1,849
Jan-21 6,660 6,790 6,646 6,730 6,662 6,722 60 848,502 279,597
Feb-21 6,580 6,704 6,570 6,640 6,586 6,648 62 175,889 31,630
Mar-21 6,532 6,656 6,526 6,598 6,538 6,600 62 6,714 7,047
Apr-21 6,450 6,556 6,422 6,494 6,472 6,494 22 46,783 2,298
May-21 6,332 6,448 6,310 6,382 6,364 6,384 20 175,301 191,164
Jun-21 – – – 6,296 6,296 6,296 0 0 4
Jul-21 6,146 6,240 6,146 6,210 6,186 6,194 8 10 15
Aug-21 – – – 6,202 6,202 6,202 0 0 9
Sep-21 6,072 6,130 6,028 6,094 6,098 6,062 -36 10,196 12,170
Oct-21 – – – 6,078 6,090 6,078 -12 0 19
Nov-21 5,972 6,076 5,972 6,076 6,024 6,034 10 6 19
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 1,118,725 lots, or 85.26 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Dec-20 7,692 7,920 7,658 7,768 7,732 7,780 48 10 514
Jan-21 7,660 7,824 7,620 7,794 7,706 7,754 48 747,976 404,901
Mar-21 7,580 7,702 7,560 7,670 7,634 7,658 24 7,729 8,837
May-21 7,304 7,460 7,288 7,404 7,398 7,388 -10 295,981 385,049
Jul-21 7,128 7,246 7,086 7,210 7,168 7,188 20 35,950 17,046
Aug-21 7,054 7,188 7,040 7,144 7,098 7,144 46 11,993 1,437
Sep-21 6,992 7,154 6,990 7,112 7,102 7,074 -28 19,083 44,065
Nov-21 7,086 7,096 7,072 7,072 7,050 7,084 34 3 26
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.


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