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4yrs ago Managed Futures blog.pricegroup Views: 222

MORNING GRAINS COMMENTS
Jack Scoville

Wednesday, December 18, 2019

Price Futures Group, CBOT
Chicago, IL
(312) 264-4322
[email protected]

JSL, SA de CV
San Salvador, El Salvador (503) 2260-7806 [email protected]

JSL, SA
San José, Costa Rica (506) 2282-7024
[email protected]

DJ USDA Monthly Grain Inspections: Exported by Rail – Dec 18
MS_GR210
Minneapolis, MN Wed DECEMBER 18, 2019 USDA MARKET NEWS
GRAINS INSPECTED AND/OR WEIGHED FOR EXPORT BY RAIL TO CANADA AND MEXICO
REPORT FOR MONTH ENDING NOVEMBER 2019
————————————————————————
Nov-19 Oct-19 Year to Date
CANADA Rail Cars Metric Tons Metric Tons Metric Tons
BARLEY 0 0 0 0
BARLEY MALTING 0 0 0 0
CORN WHITE 0 0 0 0
CORN YELLOW 0 0 0 0
RYE 0 0 0 200
FLAXSEED 0 0 0 0
WHEAT DU 0 0 0 0
WHEAT HDWH 0 0 0 0
WHEAT HRS 54 5,389 999 6,388
WHEAT HRW 0 0 0 0
WHEAT SRW 0 0 0 698
WHEAT MIXED 0 0 0 100
MEXICO
BARLEY 36 3,593 2,595 12,076
CORN WHITE 79 7,884 11,384 R 149,898
CORN YELLOW 8,039 802,219 530,583 6,335,265
CORN MIXED 0 0 299 299
FLAXSEED 0 0 100 200
OATS 1 100 0 2,696
SORGHUM 327 32,631 27,742 114,561
SOYBEANS 2,031 202,674 356,253 2,903,705
SUNFLOWER 0 0 0 0
WHEAT HDWH 0 0 11,376 29,837
WHEAT HRS 121 12,075 15,968 186,712
WHEAT HRW 1,131 112,864 98,396 1,310,897
WHEAT SRW 99 9,881 35,626 328,220
WHEAT SWH 111 11,077 1,397 21,754
WHEAT UNCL 0 0 0 0
————————————————————————-
COUNTRY OF DESTINATION IS REPORTED AS KNOWN AT THE TIME OF EXPORTATION.
INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS REPORT REFLECTS EXPORTED GRAIN INSPECTED AND
WEIGHED THROUGH GIPSA’S AUTHORITY UNDER THE U.S. GRAIN STANDARDS ACT.
NO ADDITIONAL ANALYSIS, COMPILATIONS OR DATA IS AVAILABLE.
R=Revised (YTD Revision Entails Past Month Revisisions)
Year to Date is January to current or end of year
Wheat
DU=Durum
HDWH= Hard White
HRS=Hard Red Spring
HRW=Hard Red Winter
SRW=Soft Red Winter
SWH=Soft White
UNCL=Unclassed
Source: USDA, FGIS
USDA MARKET NEWS SERVICE

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets were higher again yesterday. The markets continued to react to news of new taxes on Argentine exports and also noted the dryer than normal conditions in Kansas. The charts showed the potential for the markets to move significantly higher after breaking some significant resistance in the HRW market above 450 per bushel. Production increases in the northern parts of the world are greater than production decreases in southern countries and that has hurt the bull case for improved US Wheat demand. World prices have been weaker in the last couple of weeks but have turned a little higher with the new Argentine export taxes. World prices will still be dictated by what happens in Europe and the Black Sea area and US prices will most likely remain a follower as the US tries to compete for sales.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should trend to near to above normal. Northern areas should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average near to above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry weather but light snow is possible in northern areas tomorrow and in all areas late in the week. Temperatures should be near to above normal by the middle of this week.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are up with objectives of 570 March. Support is at 546, 537, and 534 March, with resistance at 567, 573, and 576 March. Trends in Kansas City are up with objectives of 478 and 525 March. Support is at 451, 444, and 435 March, with resistance at 470, 482, and 485 March. Trends in Minneapolis are up with objectives of 548 March. Support is at 531, 521, and 520 March, and resistance is at 543, 545, and 549 March.

RICE
General Comments: Rice was higher again yesterday. The weekly charts are bullish. Demand for US Rice remains generally positive as the western nations have been buying. The export sales pace in general has been very good and USDA could be forced to increase export demand and cut ending stocks estimate in future reports. The US domestic market is now quiet with the harvest mostly done and no one real interested in selling. Mills and exporters are thought to be covered but anyone who needs to buy paddy Rice from farmers will be forced to pay higher prices. Brazil prices are also sharply higher and this is supporting Chicago. There is plenty of Rice in the eastern part of the world, but not so much in the west and the US Rice crop is sold in the west.
Overnight News: The Delta should get dry weather. Temperatures should be below normal but near to above normal this weekend.
Chart Analysis: Trends are up with objectives of 1265 January. Support is at 1263, 1256, and 1249 January, with resistance at 1282, 1288, and 1300 January.

DJ USDA World Market Rice Prices – Dec 18
USDA today announced the prevailing world market prices
of milled and rough rice, adjusted for U.S. milling yields
and location, and the resulting marketing loan gain (MLG)
and loan deficiency payment LDP) rates. Source: USDA
—-World Price—– MLG/LDP Rate
Milled Value Rough
($/cwt) ($/cwt) ($/cwt)
Long Grain 14.43 9.21 0.00
Medium/Short Grain 14.09 9.44 0.00
Brokens 8.70 —- —-

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed higher on chart based buying. News of an accord with China was helpful as Was news from Argentina where the government imposed new export taxes. The market has been short Corn as farmers have been holding and speculators have been selling. That means that there is very little Corn available to the domestic and international cash market. Ukraine has been selling and offers from Argentina have been less, but almost nothing is available here in the US and the US is still the king when it comes to Corn. The charts show a new up move has started and the move could last until 395 or 400 March.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are up with objectives of 398 and 411 March. Support is at 385, 380, and 378 March, and resistance is at 392, 393, and 397 March. Trends in Oats are up with objectives of 308 and 319 March. Support is at 299, 297, and 288 March, and resistance is at 309, 312, and 316 March.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans and the products were higher yesterday. The US-China trade deal became a reality over the weekend and has led to higher prices for the US. The deal calls for the Chinese to sharply ramp up purchases of US ag products including Soybeans and products. The US harvest is over now and many producers have put their Soybeans into storage and not selling. This has caused basis levels to firm in the country and at the Gulf of Mexico. The charts show that strong resistance lies just overhead at about 930 January and the market might have trouble rallying much further without some concrete action on the art of the Chinese. China will buy but will also buy a lot of pork and products and beef and products as well.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed to up with objectives of 928 January. Support is at 923, 921, and 917 January, and resistance is at 939, 942, and 947 January. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 297.00, 293.00, and 290.00 January, and resistance is at 304.00, 306.00, and 310.00 January. Trends in Soybean Oil are up with objectives of 3600 January. Support is at 3320, 3290, and 3260 January, with resistance at 3430, 3460, and 3490 January.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Canola was higher on price action in Chicago Soybean Oil and on the China news. Prices are still in a range that has held for the week. Demand from crusher is reported to be good but there is a lot of Canola in the pipeline right now. Palm Oil was lower on some profit taking. Ideas are that Palm has moved higher faster than the demand. Ideas are that the rally can continue after a pause. USDA projected world vegetable oils ending stocks at the lowest level in 40 years in its recent reports.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed to up with objectives of 467.00 and 475.00 January. Support is at 461.00, 459.00, and 458.00 January, with resistance at 468.00, 471.00, and 473.00 January. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 2850, 2780, and 2740 March, with resistance at 2920, 2940, and 2970 March.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Some light rain or snow today, then mostly dry. Temperatures should average near to above normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
December +42 mr +165 Mar +95 Mar +59 Jan +12 JN N/A
January +53 MR +100 Mar +59 Jan
February +57 Mar +100 Mar +44 mR
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Dec 17
WINNIPEG – The following are the closing cash canola prices from
ICE Futures for Dec. 17, 2019.
Source: ICE Futures
CANOLA
1 Canada NCC Best Bid
Spot Price Basis Contract Change
*Par Region 436.00 -26.00 Jan 2020 up 1.00
Track Thunder Bay 476.40 10.00 Jan 2020 up 4.40
Track Vancouver 484.40 18.00 Jan 2020 up 4.40
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada ([email protected], or
204-414-9084)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – December 18
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Wednesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Dec 715.00 -07.50 Unquoted – –
Jan 715.00 -07.50 Unquoted – –
Feb/Mar 715.00 -07.50 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 700.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Dec 717.50 -07.50 Unquoted – –
Jan 717.50 -07.50 Unquoted – –
Feb/Mar 717.50 -07.50 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 702.50 -05.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Dec 717.50 -07.50 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Dec 620.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Dec 2,900.00 -30.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Dec 240.00 -03.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.1365)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Dec 18
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 119,140 lots, or 4.57 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-20 3,472 3,472 3,416 3,416 3,428 3,426 -2 5,952 42,504
Mar-20 3,460 3,483 3,446 3,467 3,474 3,465 -9 18 434
May-20 3,875 3,884 3,839 3,850 3,869 3,854 -15 110,564 168,514
Jul-20 – – – 3,910 3,910 3,910 0 0 54
Sep-20 3,913 3,920 3,883 3,894 3,913 3,896 -17 2,598 20,920
Nov-20 3,806 3,806 3,801 3,806 3,811 3,804 -7 8 124
Corn
Turnover: 531,314 lots, or 10.03 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-20 1,830 1,837 1,829 1,832 1,833 1,833 0 43,700 131,372
Mar-20 1,848 1,850 1,844 1,848 1,848 1,847 -1 17,014 612,216
May-20 1,886 1,894 1,885 1,891 1,892 1,888 -4 411,276 1,287,566
Jul-20 1,913 1,920 1,912 1,919 1,919 1,916 -3 1,128 8,826
Sep-20 1,929 1,935 1,926 1,932 1,934 1,930 -4 55,880 225,564
Nov-20 1,944 1,949 1,940 1,949 1,948 1,943 -5 2,316 4,876
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,958,502 lots, or 54.26 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-20 2,762 2,767 2,751 2,757 2,766 2,758 -8 70,424 221,062
Mar-20 2,721 2,733 2,713 2,725 2,719 2,723 4 128,522 501,224
May-20 2,754 2,772 2,750 2,763 2,755 2,761 6 1,438,894 3,101,318
Jul-20 2,778 2,791 2,778 2,787 2,774 2,785 11 64 2,210
Aug-20 2,821 2,821 2,807 2,807 2,802 2,814 12 4 156
Sep-20 2,822 2,840 2,820 2,831 2,823 2,830 7 320,012 1,608,430
Nov-20 2,822 2,852 2,821 2,840 2,818 2,840 22 576 378
Dec-20 2,834 2,853 2,832 2,832 2,866 2,839 -27 6 14
Palm Oil
Turnover: 2,931,610 lots, or 17.41 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-20 6,028 6,066 5,972 5,980 6,008 6,020 12 228,796 230,880
Feb-20 6,026 6,026 6,020 6,020 6,010 6,024 14 8 1,012
Mar-20 6,070 6,088 6,024 6,044 6,074 6,060 -14 64 226
Apr-20 5,980 5,980 5,980 5,980 5,964 5,980 16 2 12
May-20 5,968 5,980 5,888 5,890 5,958 5,938 -20 2,636,900 1,190,032
Jun-20 – – – 5,936 5,954 5,936 -18 0 20
Jul-20 – – – 5,788 5,806 5,788 -18 0 604
Aug-20 – – – 5,716 5,734 5,716 -18 0 12
Sep-20 5,664 5,686 5,622 5,626 5,650 5,656 6 65,832 120,340
Oct-20 – – – 5,714 5,708 5,714 6 0 4
Nov-20 5,642 5,642 5,642 5,642 5,644 5,642 -2 2 10
Dec-20 5,642 5,646 5,642 5,644 5,876 5,644 -232 6 2
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 1,369,040 lots, or 90.05 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-20 6,618 6,642 6,576 6,580 6,586 6,608 22 53,484 69,680
Mar-20 6,666 6,666 6,666 6,666 6,612 6,666 54 6 756
May-20 6,592 6,614 6,546 6,552 6,550 6,580 30 1,250,346 1,236,486
Jul-20 6,292 6,568 6,292 6,554 6,550 6,488 -62 10 532
Aug-20 – – – 6,404 6,464 6,404 -60 0 0
Sep-20 6,498 6,528 6,468 6,470 6,458 6,494 36 65,194 256,850
Nov-20 – – – 6,418 6,418 6,418 0 0 18
Dec-20 – – – 6,368 6,334 6,368 34 0 0
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

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Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investing in futures can involve substantial risk & is not for everyone. The information and data in this report were obtained from sources considered reliable. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any securities or futures.
The Price Futures Group, its officers, directors, employees, and brokers may in the normal course of business have positions, which may or may not agree with the opinions expressed in this report. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in this report will be the full responsibility of the person authorizing such transaction. Reproduction and/or distribution of any portion of this report are strictly prohibited without the written permission of the author.
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