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2yrs ago Managed Futures futuresmag Views: 277



U.S. benchmarks have pared some of Friday’s enthusiasm ahead of Monday’s opening bell. Last night, a deluge of economic data from China was in line with expectations, but generally underwhelmed, signaling the sharp pandemic rebound has dissipated.The real inflation that everyone’s been yelling about has finally impacted a closely-watched economic indicator: CPI. With the Fed right again and again, why should we doubt their belief that such inflation will be transitory?U.S. benchmarks are sharply off Friday’s closing levels, and this should come as no surprise. As we discussed, all too often we’ve seen Nonfarm Payroll gains dissipate at the onset of a new week.Friday’s jobs report, or lack thereof, was a surprise to everyone. Many could’ve predicted a bad number, but not by nearly 900,000 jobs. Yes, when you combine April’s whiff and March’s revision, Friday’s Nonfarm Payroll report was the largest miss in history, by 858,000 jobs. The Dow set a fresh record high yesterday, whereas the Nasdaq is down 2.5% on the week and trading 4% from its record. As for the S&P, it’s trading slightly lower on the week, a blend of the 2.We’ve been calling for a choppy start to May as the market digests April’s gains, and Monday’s soft close alluded to many investors broadly taking the same approach. Per our discussion here yesterday, it was no surprise to see stocks move higher through the opening bell; they’ve done just that for each of the last 3 months.The strong start to the month should come as no surprise as February, March, and April each started out with gains of 1.6%, 2.3%, and 1.1%, respectively, after soft finishes on the last day of the prior month.Doves flew yesterday as the Federal Reserve reiterated steadfast support for the economy and that it’s not yet thinking about tapering its unprecedented asset purchases.Between the heart of earnings season, the Fed, and President Biden’s speech tonight, we could easily characterize today as critical.

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