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3yrs ago Managed Futures blog.pricegroup Views: 325

COTTON
General Comments: Cotton closed lower and gave back some of the gains made on Monday. The weather has improved after a couple of hurricanes hit the Delta and Southeast. It is now drier there. It remains dry in West Texas. Harvest is ongoing so increased rains now can only delay things and not improve conditions much. Reports indicate that some Cotton could have been damaged in Georgia and the Carolinas and into eastern Virginia due to the excessive rains caused by the hurricanes. The rains and winds could have damaged fiber and blown fiber out of the bolls. Demand should stay generally weak as long as the Coronavirus is around, but the recent announcements of vaccines to become available helped support better demand ideas. Ideas are that economic activity will greatly improve once the vaccines become readily available in several months from now. India is also harvesting under what appear to be good conditions. Good production is expected.
Overnight News: The Delta could get scattered showers on Sunday and Southeast will get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average near to above normal in the Delta and in the Southeast. Texas will have mostly dry conditions except for some scattered showers on Sunday and above normal temperatures. The USDA average price is now 68.19 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 121,109 bales, from 119,220 bales yesterday. ICE said that 51 notices were posted for delivery against December contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 245 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed to up with objectives of 7540 and 7870 March. Support is at 7190, 7100, and 7020 March, with resistance of 7230, 7260 and 7290 March.

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ was a little higher. Florida has been spared any hurricanes or other serious storms this year in a year that has been very active for tropical storms. The Coronavirus is still promoting consumption of FCOJ at home. Restaurant and food service demand has been much less as no one is dining out. The weather in Florida is good with frequent showers to promote good tree health and fruit formation. Brazil has been too dry and irrigation is being used. Showers are falling in Brazil now and these need to continue to ensure good tree health. However, it could turn warm and dry again next week. Mexican crop conditions are called good with rains.
Overnight News: Florida should get isolated showers or dry conditions. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Brazil should get scattered showers and near to above normal temperatures. ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against November contracts and that total deliveries for the month are 0 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are up with objectives of 130.00 January. Support is at 124.00, 122.00, and 120.00 January, with resistance at 130.00, 131.00, and 134.00 January.

COFFEE
General Comments: Futures were lower once again as the growing conditions in Central America and Vietnam continued to improve after tropical systems damaged Vietnam and Central America. It has been a weather market. The rains in Vietnam finally started to end last week and Central America has seen drier weather as well. The demand from coffee shops and other food service operations is still at very low levels as consumers are still drinking Coffee at home. Reports indicate that consumers at home are consuming blends with more Robusta and less Arabica. The Brazil harvest is over and producers are selling. Ideas are that production is very strong this year as it is the on year for the trees. Central America is also offering right now and offers are increasing. The weather is good in Colombia and Peru.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are higher today at 1.247 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 110.22 ct/lb. Brazil will get scattered showers with near to above normal temperatures. Central America will get scattered showers after a hurricane earlier this week. Vietnam will see some big rains. ICE said that 0 contracts were tendered for delivery against December futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 735 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 115.00, 113.00, and 110.00 March, and resistance is at 121.00, 124.00 and 128.00 March. Trends in London are down with objectives of 1370, 1330, and 1310 January. Support is at 1340, 1330, and 1310 January, and resistance is at 1390, 1410, and 1450 January.

DJ Indonesia’s Green Coffee Bean Exports to Fall on Lower Demand — Market Talk
0126 GMT – Indonesia’s green coffee bean exports are expected to fall 1.6% to 6.0 million bags in the year ending April 2021 due to pandemic-related weakening demand in key markets, says the U.S. Department of Agriculture. It says there are still some bright spots for Indonesian exports, with lower prices helping to increase buying from countries including Malaysia, Japan, Russia, India and U.K. In terms of Indonesian domestic consumption, its recently booming coffee and cafe industry continues to suffer as a result of weaker demand related to Covid-19. “Consumption is expected to decline 9%, with higher-end Arabica experiencing significant declines as customers stay home and consume less costly varieties.” ([email protected])

SUGAR
General Comments: Both markets closed lower. Chart patterns suggest that tops are forming or have formed in both markets World production ideas have been dropping. It has been dry in south central Brazil and the production of cane has been affected. Brazil mills have been producing more Sugar and less Ethanol due to weak world and domestic petroleum prices. About 45% of the crush this year will go to Sugar, from 35% last year. India has a very big crop of Sugarcane this year. The Indian government has not announced the subsidy for exporters of Sugar so no exports are coming out of India yet. Sources told wire services that any subsidy will need to be significant to get export sales on the books. Thailand might have less this year due to reduced planted area and erratic rains during the monsoon season. Rains are moving through the country now from Vietnam and the Pacific. The EU is having problems with its Sugarbeets crop due to weather and disease. Coronavirus has returned to the US and Europe and has caused some demand concerns.
Overnight News: Brazil will get scattered showers. Temperatures should average above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down with objectives of 1480, 1420, and 1300 March. Support is at 1470, 1460, and 1430 March, and resistance is at 1530, 1560, and 1580 March. Trends in London are mixed to down with objectives of 401.00 and 384.00 March. Support is at 406.00, 404.00, and 401.00 March, and resistance is at 414.00, 419.00, and 427.00 March.

DJ USDA Projects World Sugar Production to Rise — Market Talk
16:02 ET – A surge in sugar production in Brazil is expected to drive a global uptick in sugar supply, the USDA says. It forecasts global production for the 2020/21 marketing year will rise 16M metric tons to 182M tons, with Brazil accounting for roughly 75% of that growth. 48% of the Brazilian sugarcane crop is expected to be used for sugar while the other 52% is going to ethanol, a much closer split than last year’s 65%/35% split in favor of ethanol. Sugar futures have posted a strong recovery on the Intercontinental Exchange since finding a 13-year low in late April, with the contract currently trading at just over 15 cents per pound Tuesday. Global sugar consumption is also expected to rise, outpacing production, the USDA says. ([email protected], @kirkmaltais)

COCOA
General Comments: New York and London closed higher once again. Importers are still looking to find a way to source Cocoa without paying a premium demanded by Ivory Coast and Ghana. Both countries have instituted a living wage for producers there and are looking to tax exports to pay the increased wages. The harvest for the next main crop is almost done for much of West Africa and very strong production is expected. There are a lot of demand worries as the Coronavirus is making a comeback in the US. Europe is also seeing a return of the pandemic.
Overnight News: Scattered showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be near normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get scattered showers and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 3.129 million bags. ICE said that 0 contracts were tendered against December Cocoa and that total deliveries for the month are now 1,137 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with no objectives. Support is at 2690, 2670, and 2650 March, with resistance at 2830, 2850, and 2880 March. Trends in London are up with no objectives. Support is at 1830, 1790, and 1750 March, with resistance at 1890, 1920, and 1950 March.


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