We kickoff the day with Durable Goods Orders MoM (Mar), Durable Goods ex Transportation MoM (Mar) and Durable Goods ex Defense at 7:30 A.M., Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (Apr) at 9:30 A.M. Export Inspections at 10:00 A.M., 3-Month and 6-Month Bill Auction at 10:30 A.M., 2-Year and 5-Year Note Auction at 12:00 P.M. and Crop Progress at 3:00 P.M.

On the Corn Front we have a triple threat with a Full Moon, Export Inspections and Crop Progress to start the week. The corn market has led the way even inspiring the soybean market not to drag down on shaky if at best news. The naysayers keep bringing up how many more acres will be planted that we previously did not see or did the USDA report. At these prices that is a given to me that we will see more acreage this year, what farmer wouldn’t. And the naysayers say the acreage will crush the market with demand not going to be as great as last year. We will always find corn in harvest we never thought was there. But with the carryover market next to nothing in the U.S. and South America, and we must remind ourselves, “it is not what you plant but what you grow.” With a slow start to plantings due to weather, and I also believe global demand could very well exceed last year and funds piling on longs, you cannot say this market is overbought. In the overnight electronic session, the May corn is currently trading at 670 ½ which is 15 cents higher. The trading range has been 673 ½ to 661.

On the Ethanol Front no surprised that President Joe Biden is to propose a higher tax requirement on inherited assets and capital gains this week at a cost over $1 Trillion in new spending that paid family leave, education and domestic concerns that will affect this market and I see what is ear-marked is nothing new but raising taxes on businesses and delving cask away while these industries sink into the abyss even further. Also, this week we have the Supreme Court debating whether the authority of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) to exempt refiners from biofuel mandates. This is a start to an interesting week. There were no trades posted in the overnight electronic session. The May contract settled at 2.199 and is currently showing no market with Open Interest at 25 contracts.

On the Crude Oil Front, we start off the week with the dreaded chop in the market that has been playing out. Now the market has fallen out of bed with a rise in India’s Coronavirus cases. This is the fifth day of record numbers of Covid cases in the world’s third-biggest crude oil importer that is expected to hit demand as the market sees it at the moment. As infections hit a record peak on Monday countries including the United Kingdom, Germany and the United States pledged to send medical aid to help battle the crisis that is overwhelming the hospitals. In the overnight electronic session, the June crude oil is currently trading at 6120 which is 94 points lower. The trading range has been 4231 to 6086.

On the Natural Gas Front, the market is quiet in the early going. However, OILPRICE.com reports we could see record high natural gas production in 2022. Natural Gas production is expected to grow to a new record in 2022 at 93.3 billion cubic feet (bcf) per day. Rystad Energy’s analysts reveals the Appalachian Basis was the best-in-class in 2020 when it comes to Co2 emissions intensity, and the region is set to report record-high capital in 2021. Meanwhile the Haynesville play will offer the largest gas output growth going forward, risking bottlenecks unless more pipelines are approved. In the overnight electronic session, the May natural gas is currently trading at 2.717 which is .013 lower. The trading range has been 2.734 to 2.709.

Have A Great Trading Day!
Dan Flynn

Call me with any comments or questions at 1-888-264-5665 or 312-264-4374 cell 312-213-7678 email [email protected].