We start off the day with Export Sales, Initial Jobless Claims (15/MAY), Jobless Claims 4-Week Average (15/MAY), Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index and Continuing Jobless Claims (08/MAY at 7:30 A.M., CB Leading Index MoM (APR) at 9:00 A.M. EIA Gas Storage at 9:30 A.M. 4-Week and 8-Week Bill Auction at 10:00 A.M. and 10-Year TIPS Auction at 12:00 P.M.

On the corn Front it was a wild ride in yesterday’s action with rains that fell, and the market was pressed even further as funds were net sellers of 10,000 contracts. The market buoyed off the lows when common sense came back into play. The funds were still jittery over a private forecaster predicted increased acreage and they sold on panic. I thought the panic was over, but they clearly wanted to clear the decks with long positions. As the market rallied and came back the funds bought 2,000 contracts. We must remember the Chinese came in 4 times in this month alone and purchased over 1 million tons of U.S. corn at a crack. So, the Export Sales number will be critical as the market made quite the recovery in yesterday’s action. In the overnight electronic session, the July corn is currently trading at 659 ¼ which is 1 cent higher. The trading range has been 667 ½ to 659.

On the Ethanol Front production and stocks were up modestly this week. The EIA showed production averaged 1.032 million barrels a day, the highest weekly average since March 2020, (The beginning of the pandemic shutdowns), also up 52,000 on the week and 369,000 on the year. Ethanol stocks were reported at 19,433 million barrels, 40,000 above a week ago, but down 4,193 million a year ago in the shutdown.  The Renewable Fuels Administration said input for blenders and refineries and the volume of gasoline to the market had a week to week and year to year increases. The USDA said Midwest ethanol prices were higher last week. The next USDA corn for ethanol use is June 10th. There were no trades posted in the overnight electronic session. The June contract settled at 2.350 and currently showing no market with Open Interest at 21 contracts.

On the Crude Oil Front the June contract expires today. Crude oil prices tumbled on the EIA reported builds of 1.3 million barrels compared to the API build of 620,000 and compared to a draw of 400,000 barrels a week ago. This week some refineries on the Gulf Coast have been experiencing weather related trouble that has affected their processing rates. How severe will show up in next week’s EIA report. Again, according to the current administration pipeline are bad in the U.S. but good for Vladimir Putin’s Russia. With one stroke of the pen President Biden took off sanctions on Russia just as swiftly as the pen shutdown Keystone Pipeline XL, a disaster to long-term high paying U.S. jobs. We will see how the Jobs number looks June 4th. In the overnight electronic session, the July crude oil is currently trading at 6243 which is 92 points lower. The trading range has been 6395 to 6209. $70 crude oil by the Memorial Day weekend is not out of the question.

On the Natural Gas Front, the EIA Gas number will be out this morning and a poll by Thomson Reuters with 16 analysts participating estimates range from injection builds of 54bcf to 71bcf. This compares to the one-year injection of 105bcf and the five-year average build of 91bcf. Barring a surprise number, we should see weather traders come out a little more as the mercury is climbing to summertime temperatures from now into the weekend. We should see electricity demand rise like the mercury as air-conditioners will be put to the test. In the overnight electronic session, the June natural gas is currently trading at 2.972 which is .008 higher. The trading range has been 2.978 to 2.950.

Tune in this morning at 7:30 A.M. as I discuss Export Sales numbers as they are released and Energy prices on Rural Radio Channel 147 Sirius XM.

Have A Great Trading Day!

Dan Flynn

Catch me on Rural Radio on Thursdays discussing Export Sales and Energy prices on Channel 147 Sirius XM.

Call me with any questions or trading advice at 1-888-264-5665 or 312-264-4374 cell 312-213-7678 email [email protected]