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First Quadrant Insights - How High Can We Go?
March 2021 - Hedge Fund
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Folks have been concerned about rising yields (in particular, on the long end of the curve) for some time. Some of those fears have been realized, as we have seen the 10-year yield rise from its all-time low in early August 2020 (just above 0.5%) to nearly 1.7% recently.
But how high can yields go?
The FOMC has largely communicated that they don’t expect to tighten monetary policy, either by liquidity/balance sheet changes or short-term interest rate setting, for some time. So asking “how high can yields go?” essentially is the same as asking “how steep can the yield curve get?”
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