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QCAM Monthly January 2021 – Reflation And Its Risks

January 2021 - Hedge Fund

posted by QCAM FX BIAS
4yrs ago 43

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QCAM Insight


The deployment of Corona vaccines is widely expected to reflate the global economy in 2021. The big risk is that the vaccination campaign disappoints. The other concern is that reflation will boost inflation and central banks will be reluctant to tighten policy. Global reflation is widely seen as USD negative. Thus, vaccination failing to deliver the expected results could be USD positive.


Economy and Interest Rates


First-quarter growth is depressed by the rise in Corona infections in Europe and the US. However, manufacturing activity is holding up well and the outlook improves in the second quarter with the expected wide-spread deployment of Corona vaccines.


FX Markets


The USD depreciated further versus all major currencies over the last months on continued positive risk sentiment. Safe-haven currencies like the CHF and the JPY performed well, but the GBP lagged a bit behind since the closure of the EU-UK trade deal.


FX Analytics


Going into more detail: Based on our proprietary analytical framework to take scalable exchange rate positions we are taking a close look on individual currency pairs.


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ALL ALPHAMAVEN CONTENT IS FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY. CONTENT POSTED BY MEMBERS DOES NOT NECESSARILY REFLECT THE OPINION OR BELIEFS OF ALPHAMAVEN AND HAS NOT ALWAYS BEEN INDEPENDENTLY VERIFIED BY ALPHAMAVEN. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. THIS IS NOT A SOLICITATION FOR INVESTMENT. THE MATERIAL PROVIDED HEREIN IS FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY. IT DOES NOT CONSTITUTE AN OFFER TO SELL OR A SOLICITATION OF AN OFFER TO BUY ANY INTERESTS OF ANY FUND OR ANY OTHER SECURITIES. ANY SUCH OFFERINGS CAN BE MADE ONLY IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE TERMS AND CONDITIONS SET FORTH IN THE INVESTMENT'S PRIVATE PLACEMENT MEMORANDUM. PRIOR TO INVESTING, INVESTORS ARE STRONGLY URGED TO REVIEW CAREFULLY THE PRIVATE PLACEMENT MEMORANDUM (INCLUDING THE RISK FACTORS DESCRIBED THEREIN), THE LIMITED PARTNERSHIP AGREEMENT AND THE SUBSCRIPTION DOCUMENTS, TO ASK SUCH QUESTIONS OF THE INVESTMENT MANAGER AS THEY DEEM APPROPRIATE, AND TO DISCUSS ANY PROSPECTIVE INVESTMENT IN THE FUND WITH THEIR LEGAL AND TAX ADVISERS IN ORDER TO MAKE AN INDEPENDENT DETERMINATION OF THE SUITABILITY AND CONSEQUENCES OF AN INVESTMENT.