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McMillan Analysis Corp - Weekly Stock Market Commentary 12/24/2020

posted by Volatility Capture Overlay
4yrs ago 213

The bears took advantage of a small window before the "Santa Claus rally" begins to drive $SPX down a bit. Once again, support in the 3630 3650 area has held. We are still viewing 3550 as the more important support area, for if that were broken, then the $SPX chart would take on a bearish aura.


Equity-only put-call ratios continue to decline, and thus they remain on buy signals. They are extremely overbought, but that is not a sell signal.


Market breadth has begun to slip. This was the strongest indicator for the market's most recent rise since the Election. However, this week, on January 22nd, the breadth oscillators rolled over to sell signals. Those were quickly stopped out by an improvement in breadth on January 23rd, but the warning shot has been fired.


Volatility has had some surprises this week. On the 21st, $VIX generated a new "spike peak" buy signal.


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ALL ALPHAMAVEN CONTENT IS FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY. CONTENT POSTED BY MEMBERS DOES NOT NECESSARILY REFLECT THE OPINION OR BELIEFS OF ALPHAMAVEN AND HAS NOT ALWAYS BEEN INDEPENDENTLY VERIFIED BY ALPHAMAVEN. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. THIS IS NOT A SOLICITATION FOR INVESTMENT. THE MATERIAL PROVIDED HEREIN IS FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY. IT DOES NOT CONSTITUTE AN OFFER TO SELL OR A SOLICITATION OF AN OFFER TO BUY ANY INTERESTS OF ANY FUND OR ANY OTHER SECURITIES. ANY SUCH OFFERINGS CAN BE MADE ONLY IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE TERMS AND CONDITIONS SET FORTH IN THE INVESTMENT'S PRIVATE PLACEMENT MEMORANDUM. PRIOR TO INVESTING, INVESTORS ARE STRONGLY URGED TO REVIEW CAREFULLY THE PRIVATE PLACEMENT MEMORANDUM (INCLUDING THE RISK FACTORS DESCRIBED THEREIN), THE LIMITED PARTNERSHIP AGREEMENT AND THE SUBSCRIPTION DOCUMENTS, TO ASK SUCH QUESTIONS OF THE INVESTMENT MANAGER AS THEY DEEM APPROPRIATE, AND TO DISCUSS ANY PROSPECTIVE INVESTMENT IN THE FUND WITH THEIR LEGAL AND TAX ADVISERS IN ORDER TO MAKE AN INDEPENDENT DETERMINATION OF THE SUITABILITY AND CONSEQUENCES OF AN INVESTMENT.