Key Takeaways
- • NHX CTA Index posted gains in September 2025, driven predominantly by precious metals as gold surged to record highs above $3,800 per troy ounce amid expectations of U.S. Federal Reserve rate cuts and concerns over central bank independence.
- • Time-Series Momentum (TSMOM) increased steadily from ultra-low levels, supported by broad-based trends across equities, foreign exchange, and commodities; global stock markets reached new record highs as the Fed cut rates and weak jobs data signaled further cuts ahead.
- • Performance was positive across most managers and sub-strategies, with trends emerging in equities, softs, and precious metals offsetting choppy fixed income and flat energy markets; Bitcoin posted its strongest September performance since 2012.
- • U.S. dollar depreciated significantly against peers; fixed income yields initially fell before reversing amid federal government shutdown concerns; oil prices remained range-bound despite Russian supply risks and declining U.S. inventories.
Summary
The NHX CTA Index delivered gains in September 2025 as a broad-based trend environment benefited most managed-futures strategies. Precious metals dominated performance, with gold prices breaking through successive record highs, ultimately reaching $3,800 per troy ounce. The rally was underpinned by two key factors: anticipated U.S. interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve and mounting concerns regarding central bank independence, both of which typically support gold valuations.
Time-Series Momentum indicators, as tracked by RPM's Market Divergence Index (MDI), strengthened steadily from depressed levels throughout the month. Equity markets provided substantive support, with global stock indices advancing to new record highs following the Fed's first rate cut of the year. Weak U.S. labor data reinforced expectations for additional monetary easing, generating what market participants term the "good news is bad news" dynamic. In foreign exchange, the U.S. dollar weakened materially against major currency pairs. Fixed income dynamics proved more volatile, with yields initially declining ahead of Fed action before reversing course amid uncertainty surrounding a potential federal government shutdown—which ultimately occurred.
Commodity performance was mixed. Beyond gold's stellar advance, oil prices showed minimal directional bias, with offsetting pressures from Russian supply disruptions caused by Ukrainian attacks on energy infrastructure, Trump administration actions toward India, and declining U.S. crude inventories. Agricultural commodities diverged sharply: wheat prices retreated on forecasts of continued precipitation in key growing regions, while beef prices declined modestly from earlier record levels. Cryptocurrency markets displayed notable strength, with Bitcoin gaining more in September 2025 than in any September since 2012, marking a new bull market record and defying typical seasonal weakness patterns.
Performance was broadly constructive across managers and sub-strategies, reflecting the diversified nature of the trending environment that supported momentum-driven approaches throughout the month.
Time-Series Momentum indicators, as tracked by RPM's Market Divergence Index (MDI), strengthened steadily from depressed levels throughout the month. Equity markets provided substantive support, with global stock indices advancing to new record highs following the Fed's first rate cut of the year. Weak U.S. labor data reinforced expectations for additional monetary easing, generating what market participants term the "good news is bad news" dynamic. In foreign exchange, the U.S. dollar weakened materially against major currency pairs. Fixed income dynamics proved more volatile, with yields initially declining ahead of Fed action before reversing course amid uncertainty surrounding a potential federal government shutdown—which ultimately occurred.
Commodity performance was mixed. Beyond gold's stellar advance, oil prices showed minimal directional bias, with offsetting pressures from Russian supply disruptions caused by Ukrainian attacks on energy infrastructure, Trump administration actions toward India, and declining U.S. crude inventories. Agricultural commodities diverged sharply: wheat prices retreated on forecasts of continued precipitation in key growing regions, while beef prices declined modestly from earlier record levels. Cryptocurrency markets displayed notable strength, with Bitcoin gaining more in September 2025 than in any September since 2012, marking a new bull market record and defying typical seasonal weakness patterns.
Performance was broadly constructive across managers and sub-strategies, reflecting the diversified nature of the trending environment that supported momentum-driven approaches throughout the month.
Go deeper than the headline
Research every firm in this story, track the ones that matter and get the daily briefing — free for 7 days.