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What Daily Stock Returns Tell Us About the Economy

alphaarchitect

16 hours ago

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One of the most enduring puzzles in finance is the apparent disconnect between Wall Street and Main Street—markets sometimes soar while the underlying economy stumbles, and vice versa. Paul Samuelson famously quipped that “the stock market has predicted nine out of the last five recessions” — capturing the frustration economists and investors have long felt trying to extract reliable economic signals from equity prices.

Fabrizio Ghezzi, author of the June 2026 paper “Main Street in Wall Stree...

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