Key Takeaways
- • Megadeals of at least $100 million accounted for 87.5% of U.S. venture capital deployed in the first half of 2026, according to PitchBook, as investors concentrate capital in AI companies.
- • Some family offices are deliberately moving the other way, seeking outsized returns from smaller, earlier-stage startup bets.
- • Jason Blanck, who founded his namesake family office in 2024, argues late-stage rounds offer peak market multiples and slower growth rather than de-risking.
- • John Morrissey of Shea Ventures says family offices prioritize investment multiples and long-term compounding over short-term internal rate of return, a preference that differs from large institutions and sovereign wealth funds.
- • Shea Ventures' Shakti fund, five years old, backs startups at inception, sometimes before a product or revenue exists.
Summary
Investors are concentrating capital in artificial-intelligence companies, writing larger checks to fewer startups. Megadeals, defined as rounds of at least $100 million, made up 87.5% of U.S. venture capital deployed in the first half of 2026, according to PitchBook, as AI companies absorb massive capital needs. A subset of family offices is pursuing the opposite strategy, seeking outsized returns from smaller bets on younger companies, according to CNBC's reporting.
Jason Blanck, who started his namesake family office in 2024, challenged the view that large checks into late-stage rounds reduce risk. "In reality, they're paying essentially peak market multiples and slower growth, so they're not really getting much upside," he said. Blanck describes a barbell approach in which venture assets, including direct early-stage investments and secondaries, form a minority of the portfolio alongside a core base of public equities. Shea Ventures and Blanck Capital both also invest in growth equity to balance risk.
John Morrissey, managing director of Shea Ventures, said family offices that invest across generations can accept longer holding periods for a larger relative return. The Shea family, whose construction company helped build the Golden Gate Bridge and the Hoover Dam, has invested in venture capital since the late 1960s. Morrissey said he seeks funds whose limited partners prioritize investment multiple over internal rate of return, noting that large institutions and sovereign wealth funds often want capital returned sooner and face different tax considerations. He also argued that early-stage managers are better aligned with family office goals, since late-stage managers earn substantial carry from momentum in mega rounds, while smaller-firm funds need much higher multiples to earn comparable incentive income. He cautioned that few family offices can match the scale of entities such as Yale's endowment or the family offices of David Rubenstein and Josh Harris.
Shea Ventures invests directly and through funds including Shakti, which backs startups at inception, sometimes before they have a product or revenue. Shakti partner and founder Keval Desai said "there are healthy, meaning low, valuations available" for investors willing to be unconventional. Shakti backs AI-related startups but targets less crowded niches, including two robotics companies that collect garbage, one focused on space.
Blanck Capital has backed Longshot Space Technology since its pre-seed round in 2023. The company is building what it calls a "space gun" to launch payloads into orbit and has secured contracts with the U.S. Air Force, DARPA and the U.S. Navy. Blanck has also invested in Anthropic but said it is not his most important holding.
Jason Blanck, who started his namesake family office in 2024, challenged the view that large checks into late-stage rounds reduce risk. "In reality, they're paying essentially peak market multiples and slower growth, so they're not really getting much upside," he said. Blanck describes a barbell approach in which venture assets, including direct early-stage investments and secondaries, form a minority of the portfolio alongside a core base of public equities. Shea Ventures and Blanck Capital both also invest in growth equity to balance risk.
John Morrissey, managing director of Shea Ventures, said family offices that invest across generations can accept longer holding periods for a larger relative return. The Shea family, whose construction company helped build the Golden Gate Bridge and the Hoover Dam, has invested in venture capital since the late 1960s. Morrissey said he seeks funds whose limited partners prioritize investment multiple over internal rate of return, noting that large institutions and sovereign wealth funds often want capital returned sooner and face different tax considerations. He also argued that early-stage managers are better aligned with family office goals, since late-stage managers earn substantial carry from momentum in mega rounds, while smaller-firm funds need much higher multiples to earn comparable incentive income. He cautioned that few family offices can match the scale of entities such as Yale's endowment or the family offices of David Rubenstein and Josh Harris.
Shea Ventures invests directly and through funds including Shakti, which backs startups at inception, sometimes before they have a product or revenue. Shakti partner and founder Keval Desai said "there are healthy, meaning low, valuations available" for investors willing to be unconventional. Shakti backs AI-related startups but targets less crowded niches, including two robotics companies that collect garbage, one focused on space.
Blanck Capital has backed Longshot Space Technology since its pre-seed round in 2023. The company is building what it calls a "space gun" to launch payloads into orbit and has secured contracts with the U.S. Air Force, DARPA and the U.S. Navy. Blanck has also invested in Anthropic but said it is not his most important holding.
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