Key Takeaways
- • Marquette Associates research partner Greg Leonberger frames 2026 as a market where most stock indices were on track for a fourth consecutive year of double-digit returns through September 30.
- • The article identifies a sharp run-up in interest rates during the third quarter of 2026 as the key risk that could change market direction before year-end.
- • Leonberger argues the final outcome will not be determined until December 31, drawing an analogy to the difficult final miles of a marathon.
- • The piece is a research commentary and does not include specific rate levels, index figures beyond the general return trend, or formal forecasts.
Summary
In an October 22, 2026 research note, Marquette Associates Partner and Director of Research Greg Leonberger assesses whether higher interest rates could weigh on equity markets. According to the piece, most stock indices were headed for their fourth consecutive year of double-digit returns through September 30, 2026. Leonberger notes, however, that a substantial rise in rates during the third quarter shows how quickly market conditions can shift.
Leonberger uses a marathon analogy to frame the outlook. He argues that a strong first portion of a race does not guarantee a strong finish, and that the closing stretch depends on how participants handle late-stage pressure. Applied to markets, he suggests the year is not settled until the close on December 31, 2026.
The article is commentary rather than a data-driven forecast. It does not provide specific yield levels, index performance figures for the fourth quarter, or explicit recommendations. The publisher summary and disclaimer state that the views are those of Marquette Associates, are subject to change, and do not constitute financial advice.
Leonberger uses a marathon analogy to frame the outlook. He argues that a strong first portion of a race does not guarantee a strong finish, and that the closing stretch depends on how participants handle late-stage pressure. Applied to markets, he suggests the year is not settled until the close on December 31, 2026.
The article is commentary rather than a data-driven forecast. It does not provide specific yield levels, index performance figures for the fourth quarter, or explicit recommendations. The publisher summary and disclaimer state that the views are those of Marquette Associates, are subject to change, and do not constitute financial advice.
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