Key Takeaways
- • Sandra Ramirez, vice-president of economic research at the Ontario Municipal Employees' Retirement System (OMERS), told the Canadian Investment Review's 2026 Endowment & Foundation Investment Forum that the global system is becoming more prone to supply shocks due to structural, not solely U.S.-driven, forces.
- • Ramirez cited populism, U.S.-China fragmentation and climate-related physical risks as drivers, and said she sees higher inflation as a permanent market feature with central banks expected to hold rates higher.
- • Ramirez views Canada's fiscal position as stronger than most G7 peers, with infrastructure spending of around 6% of GDP expected over the next five years.
- • Ramirez does not expect free trade to return and warned that a U.S. removal of current tariff exemptions could roughly double tariffs on Canada, a scenario she said is not her baseline.
Summary
Sandra Ramirez, vice-president of economic research at the Ontario Municipal Employees' Retirement System, used the opening keynote of the Canadian Investment Review's 2026 Endowment & Foundation Investment Forum to argue that geopolitical instability reflects secular shifts that leave the global system more prone to disruption. She rejected the idea that the trend is simply a product of U.S. President Donald Trump, describing it instead as a structural trend in which interacting forces make the world "more supply shock prone."
According to Ramirez, populism is fuelling interventionist policies from governments of all sizes, while fragmentation between China and the United States is rising. She also said climate change is straining supply chains through physical risks and the investment needed to adapt to a warming planet. She characterized the U.S. as shifting from a guarantor of free trade and global stability toward a "global disruptor," with direct effects in Venezuela and Iran so far this year. For investors, she said the environment requires greater preparedness rather than retreat.
Ramirez said a rapid succession of supply-chain shocks is driving inflation volatility, prompting central banks to adjust and to expect higher interest rates. She sees higher inflation as a permanent feature of markets.
Canada, in her assessment, is better positioned than most countries amid these shocks, given its fiscal standing within the G7. She expects strong fiscal spending on defence and investment, and further trade diversification. She also flagged significant risk from ongoing Canada-U.S.-Mexico trade negotiations, describing Canada as going through a difficult transition that could produce an economic resurgence over the next three to five years. "Ultimately, we think that, for some time, Canada is going to outperform before it stabilizes over the long term," she said.
This view is supported by federal infrastructure programs, with roughly 6% of GDP expected to be spent on infrastructure over the next five years. Citing research, Ramirez said infrastructure investment carries a multiplier above one and so will crowd in private capital rather than displace it.
Regardless of the outcome of the Canada-U.S.-Mexico Agreement negotiations, Ramirez does not expect free trade to return and believes a sectoral tariff regime is here to stay, with no U.S. agreement considered immovable. She described the worst case as the U.S. removing Canada's current tariff exemptions, which she estimated could roughly double tariffs and would be significant for Canada, though she said it is not her baseline scenario.
According to Ramirez, populism is fuelling interventionist policies from governments of all sizes, while fragmentation between China and the United States is rising. She also said climate change is straining supply chains through physical risks and the investment needed to adapt to a warming planet. She characterized the U.S. as shifting from a guarantor of free trade and global stability toward a "global disruptor," with direct effects in Venezuela and Iran so far this year. For investors, she said the environment requires greater preparedness rather than retreat.
Ramirez said a rapid succession of supply-chain shocks is driving inflation volatility, prompting central banks to adjust and to expect higher interest rates. She sees higher inflation as a permanent feature of markets.
Canada, in her assessment, is better positioned than most countries amid these shocks, given its fiscal standing within the G7. She expects strong fiscal spending on defence and investment, and further trade diversification. She also flagged significant risk from ongoing Canada-U.S.-Mexico trade negotiations, describing Canada as going through a difficult transition that could produce an economic resurgence over the next three to five years. "Ultimately, we think that, for some time, Canada is going to outperform before it stabilizes over the long term," she said.
This view is supported by federal infrastructure programs, with roughly 6% of GDP expected to be spent on infrastructure over the next five years. Citing research, Ramirez said infrastructure investment carries a multiplier above one and so will crowd in private capital rather than displace it.
Regardless of the outcome of the Canada-U.S.-Mexico Agreement negotiations, Ramirez does not expect free trade to return and believes a sectoral tariff regime is here to stay, with no U.S. agreement considered immovable. She described the worst case as the U.S. removing Canada's current tariff exemptions, which she estimated could roughly double tariffs and would be significant for Canada, though she said it is not her baseline scenario.
Go deeper than the headline
Research every firm in this story, track the ones that matter and get the daily briefing — free for 7 days.