Key Takeaways
- • 25% of Canadian institutional investors are planning significant reductions in both active and passive Canadian equities, with zero institutions planning to meaningfully increase passive Canadian equity allocations and only 8% planning major increases to active Canadian equities.
- • Private markets are becoming the primary destination for capital flight, with approximately one-third of institutions planning large increases to private credit and 36% planning major increases to private infrastructure equity allocations over the next three years.
- • 38% of Canadian institutions plan substantial increases to private equity allocations, though roughly 25% are planning significant reductions in this asset class, indicating more divergence in strategy compared to other alternatives.
- • Global passive equities are attracting significant inflows, with about 30% of institutions planning large increases to passive global equity allocations, positioning international markets as the primary beneficiary of domestic equity reductions.
- • This reallocation reflects a structural shift in Canadian institutional portfolio construction, with private markets expanding their footprint in institutional portfolios domestically and globally over the next three-year planning horizon.
Summary
The capital displacement is stark: not a single institution participating in the study intends to meaningfully increase allocations to passive Canadian equities, and only 8% plan to significantly increase active Canadian equity exposures. This near-universal retreat from domestic equities represents a fundamental rebalancing of Canadian institutional portfolios, with assets expected to migrate toward global markets and alternative asset classes rather than remaining domestically invested.
The beneficiaries of this capital redeployment are clear. Approximately 30% of institutions plan large increases to passive global equity allocations, making international equities the primary traditional asset class destination. However, the more substantial shift is directional: private markets are capturing significantly larger portions of institutional capital. According to Mark Buckley, Global Co-Head of Investment Management at Crisil Coalition Greenwich, "Many of the assets shifting out of Canadian equities will move to alternative asset classes. Private markets are making up a bigger part of institutional portfolios in Canada and around the world, and Canadian institutions are clearly committed to increasing exposure further in the next three years."
Within alternatives, private credit and private infrastructure equity are attracting the broadest institutional commitment, with roughly one-third of Canadian institutions planning large increases to private credit and 36% planning major increases to private infrastructure equity over the three-year planning window. In both asset classes, fewer than 10% of institutions are planning significant reductions. Private equity allocations present a more mixed picture, with 38% of institutions planning substantial increases but approximately 25% planning significant reductions, suggesting greater heterogeneity in institutional views on this asset class compared to other alternatives.
This reallocation dynamic reflects ongoing portfolio optimization among Canadian institutions as they recalibrate expected returns and diversification objectives. The preference for private markets and global passive exposure over Canadian equities indicates institutional conviction that enhanced returns and risk-adjusted performance are more attainable through alternative asset classes and international markets than through continued concentration in the domestic equity market.
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