Key Takeaways
- • RE/MAX Canada projects national home sales to rise 3.4% in 2026, marking the first meaningful recovery after years of market contraction, while average prices are expected to decline a further 3.7% as the reset continues.
- • A Leger survey commissioned by RE/MAX Canada reveals 10% of respondents plan to purchase a home within 12 months—half of them first-time buyers—signaling cautious but genuine demand returning to the market after prolonged buyer hesitation.
- • Price softening combined with potential Bank of Canada rate cuts is creating a dual incentive for market entry: 23% of survey respondents indicated willingness to buy if rates fell an additional 0.5–1%, while 25% expect improved affordability in their local markets during 2026.
- • First-time buyers aged 18–34 (often with children) represent the strongest near-term intent cohort at 17% of survey respondents planning home purchases, with industry observers noting these buyers are employing "creative" savings strategies to overcome affordability barriers.
- • Market stabilization indicators including normalized inventory levels, price stabilization trends since April 2025, and easing financing conditions are positioning 2026 as a transition year from distress to gradual recovery across Canada's housing sector.
Summary
Canada's housing market is entering a recovery phase after an extended downturn, with institutional confidence returning as fundamental conditions align to support buyer re-entry in 2026. According to RE/MAX Canada's 2026 Housing Market Outlook, national home sales are expected to increase 3.4% next year despite continued price adjustments. This projection represents a meaningful inflection point following years of market weakness, as falling prices and rising listings begin attracting previously sidelined purchasers back to active participation.
The demand recovery is grounded in tangible affordability improvements and financing tailwinds. RE/MAX-commissioned Leger survey data shows that 10% of poll participants plan to acquire a home within the next 12 months, with 50% of this cohort being first-time entrants to the market. Critically, 25% of respondents believe their local markets will become more affordable in 2026—a marked psychological shift after the prolonged price escalation that characterized recent years. The survey also identifies a substantial conditional buyer segment: 23% of respondents expressed readiness to purchase if Bank of Canada interest rates declined by an additional 0.5–1%, demonstrating that modest rate relief could unlock significant latent demand.
Demographic analysis reveals strongest purchasing intent among younger households. Approximately 17% of total survey respondents indicated intent to buy a home at some point, with the 18–34 age cohort (particularly those with children) showing the most acute near-term motivation. Don Kottick, President of RE/MAX Canada, noted that "first-time buyers in particular [are] finding creative ways to save and enter the market," suggesting adaptive household financial strategies are overcoming structural affordability constraints.
Market stabilization indicators corroborate the demand thesis. RBC Economics has documented that home resales have been on a "winning streak since April," with inventory levels normalizing and benchmark prices showing early signs of stabilization despite remaining below prior-year levels. The combination of price softening—with further 3.7% declines anticipated in 2026—alongside moderating inventory and potential continued monetary easing by the Bank of Canada is creating what institutional observers characterize as a "gradual recovery" trajectory. This foundation positions 2026 as a normalization year rather than a speculative rebound, with modest but sustained demand growth likely as household confidence rebuilds around improved entry economics.
The demand recovery is grounded in tangible affordability improvements and financing tailwinds. RE/MAX-commissioned Leger survey data shows that 10% of poll participants plan to acquire a home within the next 12 months, with 50% of this cohort being first-time entrants to the market. Critically, 25% of respondents believe their local markets will become more affordable in 2026—a marked psychological shift after the prolonged price escalation that characterized recent years. The survey also identifies a substantial conditional buyer segment: 23% of respondents expressed readiness to purchase if Bank of Canada interest rates declined by an additional 0.5–1%, demonstrating that modest rate relief could unlock significant latent demand.
Demographic analysis reveals strongest purchasing intent among younger households. Approximately 17% of total survey respondents indicated intent to buy a home at some point, with the 18–34 age cohort (particularly those with children) showing the most acute near-term motivation. Don Kottick, President of RE/MAX Canada, noted that "first-time buyers in particular [are] finding creative ways to save and enter the market," suggesting adaptive household financial strategies are overcoming structural affordability constraints.
Market stabilization indicators corroborate the demand thesis. RBC Economics has documented that home resales have been on a "winning streak since April," with inventory levels normalizing and benchmark prices showing early signs of stabilization despite remaining below prior-year levels. The combination of price softening—with further 3.7% declines anticipated in 2026—alongside moderating inventory and potential continued monetary easing by the Bank of Canada is creating what institutional observers characterize as a "gradual recovery" trajectory. This foundation positions 2026 as a normalization year rather than a speculative rebound, with modest but sustained demand growth likely as household confidence rebuilds around improved entry economics.
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