Key Takeaways
- • Zerodha Varsity's backtest from February 2011 to September 2026 found Ray Dalio's All Weather portfolio returned an average annual 9.9%, below the 60:40 portfolio's 10.4% and the Nifty 500 TRI's 12%.
- • The All Weather portfolio recorded volatility of 5.7% and a maximum drawdown of 6.4%, versus 10.5% and 17.6% for the 60:40 portfolio and 17.5% and 31.8% for the Nifty 500 TRI.
- • A ₹1 lakh investment grew to approximately ₹4.4 lakh in the All Weather portfolio, ₹4.7 lakh in the 60:40 portfolio and ₹5.9 lakh in the Nifty 500 TRI over the period.
- • During the Covid-19 crash the All Weather portfolio fell 6.4%, against 17.6% for the 60:40 portfolio and 31.7% for the Nifty 500 TRI.
- • Between January and September 2026 the All Weather portfolio gained 1.2% while the Nifty 500 TRI fell 6% and the 60:40 portfolio fell 2.8%, which Zerodha attributes largely to gold.
Summary
A Zerodha Varsity backtest, as reported by Mint, compared Ray Dalio's All Weather portfolio with a traditional 60:40 portfolio and an all-equity Nifty 500 total returns index (TRI) portfolio for Indian investors over February 2011 to September 2026. The All Weather portfolio returned an average annual 9.9%, trailing the 60:40 portfolio at 10.4% and the Nifty 500 TRI at 12%. Its principal advantage was lower volatility and shallower drawdowns.
An investment of ₹1 lakh would have grown to about ₹4.4 lakh in the All Weather portfolio, ₹4.7 lakh in the 60:40 portfolio and ₹5.9 lakh in the Nifty 500 TRI. Reported volatility was 5.7% for the All Weather portfolio, 10.5% for the 60:40 portfolio and 17.5% for the Nifty 500 TRI. The largest peak-to-trough declines were 6.4%, 17.6% and 31.8%, respectively.
The gap was most visible in stress periods. The All Weather portfolio recorded smaller declines during the 2013 taper tantrum and the Covid-19 crash, when the Nifty 500 TRI fell 31.7% and the 60:40 portfolio declined 17.6%, against 6.4% for the All Weather portfolio. In the most recent period, from January to September 2026, the Nifty 500 TRI declined 6% and the 60:40 portfolio fell 2.8%, while the All Weather portfolio gained 1.2%. Zerodha's analysis attributes much of that resilience to gold. The article cautions that these results do not show the All Weather portfolio will always outperform in a downturn, as outcomes depend on how stocks, bonds and gold respond to the economic conditions behind a sell-off.
Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, built the approach around holding assets that respond differently to changes in growth and inflation rather than predicting the next economic environment. For the Indian version, Zerodha Varsity replaced the commodities allocation with gold, given limited availability of broad commodity funds for retail investors. Zerodha's 60:40 portfolio held 60% in the Nifty 500 TRI, 20% in 10-year government securities and 20% in five-year government securities. Both portfolios were rebalanced every December. The lower equity weighting explains why the All Weather portfolio captured less of the market's gains.
Mint notes the backtest does not establish that the All Weather portfolio is universally superior. Investors with long horizons and high volatility tolerance may prefer greater equity exposure, while those concerned about large losses may value diversification. Multi-asset allocation mutual funds are an alternative, though their allocations, rebalancing, costs and risk profiles vary and they should not be treated as equivalent to the All Weather strategy. The core finding is that the All Weather portfolio delivered returns close to the 60:40 portfolio with substantially lower volatility and drawdowns.
An investment of ₹1 lakh would have grown to about ₹4.4 lakh in the All Weather portfolio, ₹4.7 lakh in the 60:40 portfolio and ₹5.9 lakh in the Nifty 500 TRI. Reported volatility was 5.7% for the All Weather portfolio, 10.5% for the 60:40 portfolio and 17.5% for the Nifty 500 TRI. The largest peak-to-trough declines were 6.4%, 17.6% and 31.8%, respectively.
The gap was most visible in stress periods. The All Weather portfolio recorded smaller declines during the 2013 taper tantrum and the Covid-19 crash, when the Nifty 500 TRI fell 31.7% and the 60:40 portfolio declined 17.6%, against 6.4% for the All Weather portfolio. In the most recent period, from January to September 2026, the Nifty 500 TRI declined 6% and the 60:40 portfolio fell 2.8%, while the All Weather portfolio gained 1.2%. Zerodha's analysis attributes much of that resilience to gold. The article cautions that these results do not show the All Weather portfolio will always outperform in a downturn, as outcomes depend on how stocks, bonds and gold respond to the economic conditions behind a sell-off.
Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, built the approach around holding assets that respond differently to changes in growth and inflation rather than predicting the next economic environment. For the Indian version, Zerodha Varsity replaced the commodities allocation with gold, given limited availability of broad commodity funds for retail investors. Zerodha's 60:40 portfolio held 60% in the Nifty 500 TRI, 20% in 10-year government securities and 20% in five-year government securities. Both portfolios were rebalanced every December. The lower equity weighting explains why the All Weather portfolio captured less of the market's gains.
Mint notes the backtest does not establish that the All Weather portfolio is universally superior. Investors with long horizons and high volatility tolerance may prefer greater equity exposure, while those concerned about large losses may value diversification. Multi-asset allocation mutual funds are an alternative, though their allocations, rebalancing, costs and risk profiles vary and they should not be treated as equivalent to the All Weather strategy. The core finding is that the All Weather portfolio delivered returns close to the 60:40 portfolio with substantially lower volatility and drawdowns.
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