Key Takeaways
- • U.S. tax-exempt institutions had $562.4 billion invested with real estate managers in 2026, down 0.6% from a year earlier, according to Pensions & Investments' survey of 39 managers, even as property values stabilize and rents strengthen.
- • Worldwide private real estate AUM for the surveyed managers rose 2.2% to $1.65 trillion as of June 30, 2026, with PGIM leading at $133.8 billion, followed by MetLife Investment Management at $127.4 billion and Nuveen at $122.1 billion.
- • Higher financing costs and too few completed sales are slowing distributions from older investments, so institutions are reluctant to make new commitments until they recycle cash from existing holdings.
- • The 10-year Treasury yield near 5% and a Federal Reserve quarter-point rate increase in September have led some prospective deals to be repriced or abandoned, widening the gap between appraised values and transaction prices.
- • Investors are favoring debt strategies, core-plus and value-added equity, and specific managers, while data center exposure remains minimal at about 0.2% of U.S. tax-exempt real estate exposure.
Summary
U.S. tax-exempt institutions had $562.4 billion invested with managers in the private real estate sector in 2026, down 0.6% from a year earlier, according to Pensions & Investments' real estate survey. The flat allocation comes even as property values stabilize, transaction volume ticks up and rents strengthen in previously struggling markets. Among 39 investment managers that supplied comparable figures for 2025 and 2026, worldwide private real estate AUM rose 2.2% to $1.65 trillion as of June 30, 2026. Industry participants say the asset class is recovering from a weak 2025 and a difficult post-COVID-19 period, but institutional cash has not yet flowed freely.
The central constraint is the gap between higher valuations and cash proceeds. Lori Campana, a partner at Monument Group, said some multifamily markets have stabilized as new apartments are absorbed, but owners have not necessarily sold and returned proceeds. "Performance can be very good, but it's not necessarily translating to exits across the board to provide investors with liquidity," she said. Colin Hill, managing principal at Meketa Investment Group, said the gap between buyer and seller pricing had briefly narrowed earlier this year but "seems to have widened again" as borrowing costs rose. Shelley Santulli, principal for real assets at NEPC, said appraised values have not fully reset to transaction prices, and that unresolved exits are restricting new fundraising. Rob Kohn of Park Madison Partners said the firm's market improved over the past 60 to 90 days, but investors are spending more time on manager track records because they have received little capital back.
Macroeconomic conditions remain a headwind. According to the article, inflation stubbornness and Middle East conflicts pushed the 10-year Treasury yield to around 5%, and the Federal Reserve raised rates by a quarter point in September. Ben Maslan of RCLCO Fund Advisors said rising bond yields have prompted some deals to be repriced or abandoned, so stronger rents do not automatically translate into acceptable sale prices.
Capital is shifting selectively. Debt has gained appeal: PGIM's Cathy Marcus said core commercial real estate debt can return around 7% and transitional loans around 10%, though competition for quality loans has tightened spreads. Equity investors are moving from older diversified core funds toward core-plus and value-added strategies, according to Mercer's Rohit Nerurkar, and Clarion Partners' Josh Pristaw said "the case for owning the equity in real estate is you're generally buying way below replacement costs." Clarion reported more than $45.6 billion in worldwide AUM, up 2.4% year over year. Smaller managers can still raise capital if they have differentiated sectors and credible track records, Kohn said.
By property type, P&I's survey of 28 managers reporting U.S. tax-exempt allocations showed industrial at 31.7% in 2026, multifamily at 25.5%, retail up to 10.3% from 8.9%, and office down to 14.9% from 16.4%. Data centers and technology represented only about 0.2% of exposure, with MSCI estimating average power-project waits exceeding five years in key development areas. Experts cite limited power capacity, permitting issues and lease-end value uncertainty as risks. Sweeney of Park Madison said a durable rebound will require renewed institutional interest to turn into commitments and for older investments to produce realizations.
The central constraint is the gap between higher valuations and cash proceeds. Lori Campana, a partner at Monument Group, said some multifamily markets have stabilized as new apartments are absorbed, but owners have not necessarily sold and returned proceeds. "Performance can be very good, but it's not necessarily translating to exits across the board to provide investors with liquidity," she said. Colin Hill, managing principal at Meketa Investment Group, said the gap between buyer and seller pricing had briefly narrowed earlier this year but "seems to have widened again" as borrowing costs rose. Shelley Santulli, principal for real assets at NEPC, said appraised values have not fully reset to transaction prices, and that unresolved exits are restricting new fundraising. Rob Kohn of Park Madison Partners said the firm's market improved over the past 60 to 90 days, but investors are spending more time on manager track records because they have received little capital back.
Macroeconomic conditions remain a headwind. According to the article, inflation stubbornness and Middle East conflicts pushed the 10-year Treasury yield to around 5%, and the Federal Reserve raised rates by a quarter point in September. Ben Maslan of RCLCO Fund Advisors said rising bond yields have prompted some deals to be repriced or abandoned, so stronger rents do not automatically translate into acceptable sale prices.
Capital is shifting selectively. Debt has gained appeal: PGIM's Cathy Marcus said core commercial real estate debt can return around 7% and transitional loans around 10%, though competition for quality loans has tightened spreads. Equity investors are moving from older diversified core funds toward core-plus and value-added strategies, according to Mercer's Rohit Nerurkar, and Clarion Partners' Josh Pristaw said "the case for owning the equity in real estate is you're generally buying way below replacement costs." Clarion reported more than $45.6 billion in worldwide AUM, up 2.4% year over year. Smaller managers can still raise capital if they have differentiated sectors and credible track records, Kohn said.
By property type, P&I's survey of 28 managers reporting U.S. tax-exempt allocations showed industrial at 31.7% in 2026, multifamily at 25.5%, retail up to 10.3% from 8.9%, and office down to 14.9% from 16.4%. Data centers and technology represented only about 0.2% of exposure, with MSCI estimating average power-project waits exceeding five years in key development areas. Experts cite limited power capacity, permitting issues and lease-end value uncertainty as risks. Sweeney of Park Madison said a durable rebound will require renewed institutional interest to turn into commitments and for older investments to produce realizations.
Go deeper than the headline
Research every firm in this story, track the ones that matter and get the daily briefing — free for 7 days.