The Iran War is testing markets’ tendency to look past geopolitical shocks. Alternative shipping routes, inventory drawdowns, and supply outside the Middle East have kept crude moving, but refined fuels and LNG remain constrained, leaving little room to absorb further disruption. Our base case is a simmering conflict with partial energy flows and elevated, volatile costs, while wider disruption could push inflation higher and slow growth. Investors should stress-test portfolios alongside spending needs and other obligations, reduce overlapping exposures, and add distinct return drivers while retaining growth holdings supported by long-term valuations.
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