Key Takeaways
- • Private-credit-heavy alternative asset managers have posted sharp declines year-to-date in 2026, with Apollo down 12%, Ares down 15%, KKR down 16%, and Blue Owl down 18%, driven by uncertainty in equity and credit markets tied to fiscal, tariff, and monetary policies.
- • Apollo Global Management derives 86% of fee-earning assets and 72% of base fees from private credit; Ares derives 66% and 65% respectively; Blue Owl derives 53% and 61%; and KKR derives 48% and 30%—making these firms most exposed to private credit headwinds.
- • Blackstone, with a more balanced portfolio where only 34% of fee-earning assets and 25% of base fees come from credit and insurance, has declined 12% despite being the industry leader, reflecting sector-wide pressure rather than credit-specific concerns.
- • Alternative managers with less private-credit exposure have weathered the downturn better: Brookfield Asset Management is up 1.0% year-to-date and Carlyle Group is down just 2.4%, benefiting from real estate/real assets exposure and weaker prior-year comparisons respectively.
- • Investor concerns about private credit markets intensified following September 2025 collapses of Tricolor (a subprime auto lender) and First Brands (an auto parts supplier), though analysis shows these failures were not primarily private credit-originated events.
Summary
Alternative asset manager stocks have suffered significant declines through mid-March 2026, with private-credit-dependent firms experiencing the steepest losses. The selloff has been triggered by mounting uncertainty surrounding equity and credit market conditions, including concerns about fiscal policy, tariffs, monetary policy direction, and economic growth prospects. Additionally, investors have grown increasingly anxious about the health of the private credit market itself, which has become the primary lending channel for riskier borrowers since the global financial crisis.
The firms most vulnerable to these headwinds are those with the highest concentration of revenues tied to private credit operations. Apollo Global Management, the most exposed, derives 86% of fee-earning assets and 72% of base fees from this segment and has declined approximately 12% year-to-date. Ares Management, with 66% of fee-earning assets and 65% of base fees from private credit, has lost 15%. Blue Owl, dependent on private credit for 53% of fee-earning assets and 61% of base fees, has fallen nearly 18%—the steepest decline in the group. KKR, where private credit represents 48% of fee-earning assets and 30% of base fees, has dropped just shy of 16%.
Blackstone, despite being the industry leader and commanding the highest valuation multiples, has declined 12% year-to-date. Its more resilient position reflects a materially different business composition: only 34% of fee-earning assets and 25% of base fees originate from its credit and insurance segment. This diversified portfolio across buyout, real estate, hedge funds, and other strategies has provided some buffer against private-credit-specific concerns, though the firm remains subject to broader market pressures affecting all alternatives.
Managers with minimal private credit exposure have performed considerably better. Brookfield Asset Management, benefiting from substantial real estate and real assets holdings, is up 1.0% year-to-date. Carlyle Group, down just 2.4%, has been aided by easier year-over-year comparisons following weak performance in 2024 and 2025.
Investor anxiety intensified following the September 2025 collapses of Tricolor, a subprime auto lender, and First Brands, an auto parts supplier, both of which suffered from debt-fueled expansions, opaque financing structures, and fraud allegations. However, closer analysis indicates these failures were not primarily private credit originations: the bulk of First Brands' term loan debt originated in the broadly syndicated loan market, suggesting that finger-pointing at private credit may have outpaced the actual underlying exposure these managers carry to the failed entities.
The firms most vulnerable to these headwinds are those with the highest concentration of revenues tied to private credit operations. Apollo Global Management, the most exposed, derives 86% of fee-earning assets and 72% of base fees from this segment and has declined approximately 12% year-to-date. Ares Management, with 66% of fee-earning assets and 65% of base fees from private credit, has lost 15%. Blue Owl, dependent on private credit for 53% of fee-earning assets and 61% of base fees, has fallen nearly 18%—the steepest decline in the group. KKR, where private credit represents 48% of fee-earning assets and 30% of base fees, has dropped just shy of 16%.
Blackstone, despite being the industry leader and commanding the highest valuation multiples, has declined 12% year-to-date. Its more resilient position reflects a materially different business composition: only 34% of fee-earning assets and 25% of base fees originate from its credit and insurance segment. This diversified portfolio across buyout, real estate, hedge funds, and other strategies has provided some buffer against private-credit-specific concerns, though the firm remains subject to broader market pressures affecting all alternatives.
Managers with minimal private credit exposure have performed considerably better. Brookfield Asset Management, benefiting from substantial real estate and real assets holdings, is up 1.0% year-to-date. Carlyle Group, down just 2.4%, has been aided by easier year-over-year comparisons following weak performance in 2024 and 2025.
Investor anxiety intensified following the September 2025 collapses of Tricolor, a subprime auto lender, and First Brands, an auto parts supplier, both of which suffered from debt-fueled expansions, opaque financing structures, and fraud allegations. However, closer analysis indicates these failures were not primarily private credit originations: the bulk of First Brands' term loan debt originated in the broadly syndicated loan market, suggesting that finger-pointing at private credit may have outpaced the actual underlying exposure these managers carry to the failed entities.
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