Key Takeaways
- • CryptoQuant's Bitcoin Bull Score reached 80 (with reports suggesting a peak near 90), driven by eight of ten underlying indicators turning bullish, signaling renewed market momentum after a significant weekly jump from 30.
- • Bitcoin long-term holders are realizing gains of approximately 72%, substantially below the 350% peak observed in December 2024, indicating limited selling pressure and suggesting holders remain positioned for further upside.
- • Bitcoin closed above its 365-day moving average for the first time since March 2023, a technical signal historically associated with past bull markets and suggesting a potential shift in longer-term sentiment.
- • The recent 90-day upward price trajectory demonstrates technical characteristics resembling prior bull-market rallies, though near-term trading ranges suggest consolidation with resistance levels near $87,300.
- • Current profit-taking remains in a "relatively mild phase" compared to historical bull-market tops, with long-term holder behavior suggesting they are deferring aggressive selling in anticipation of additional gains.
Summary
Bitcoin's technical indicators have flashed a notably bullish signal, with CryptoQuant's Bull Score reaching elevated levels—reported at both 80 and approaching 90—representing a dramatic single-week surge from 30. This advancement is notable because eight of the index's ten underlying indicators have turned bullish simultaneously, a clustering that historically correlates with sustained market strength. The score's rapid acceleration reflects a confluence of positive technical and on-chain signals that have attracted institutional attention.
A critical indicator of sustainable rally potential lies in long-term holder behavior. Analysis by CryptoQuant contributor Darkfost, published September 25, shows that Bitcoin long-term holders are currently realizing gains of approximately 72%—a level notably detached from historical bull-market peaks. In December 2024, for comparison, realized gains reached approximately 350%. The current 72% figure represents roughly one-fifth of that prior peak, suggesting that despite substantial price appreciation, long-term holders—a cohort traditionally less reactive to price volatility—have not yet reached the profit-taking thresholds that would typically trigger aggressive selling pressure. This dynamic indicates that the market remains in what analysts characterize as a "relatively mild profit-taking phase," with the behavioral pattern resembling earlier bear markets rather than euphoric bull-market cycles.
Technical chart patterns reinforce this constructive intermediate-term outlook. Bitcoin's breach above its 365-day moving average—achieved for the first time since March 2023—represents a significant milestone, as CryptoQuant associates this signal with prior bull-market regimes. The 90-day upward trend in price action has been characterized by market analysts as displaying "renewed bullish momentum," with technical formations targeting further consolidation and potential breakout scenarios. Near-term resistance levels are positioned around $87,300, with trading activity suggesting buyers would need to sustain clearance above this level to unlock additional upside.
The divergence between bullish technical signals and measured long-term holder profit-realization levels creates an important nuance for institutional investors. While the Bull Score elevation and 365-day moving average breach suggest technical strength and potential for continued appreciation, the relatively low realized gains by long-term holders simultaneously indicate that these sophisticated market participants remain positioned for further gains rather than moving into distributional phases. This alignment of long-term holders' intentions with bullish technical signals may support further price appreciation, provided that intermediate resistance and near-term consolidation patterns are successfully navigated.
A critical indicator of sustainable rally potential lies in long-term holder behavior. Analysis by CryptoQuant contributor Darkfost, published September 25, shows that Bitcoin long-term holders are currently realizing gains of approximately 72%—a level notably detached from historical bull-market peaks. In December 2024, for comparison, realized gains reached approximately 350%. The current 72% figure represents roughly one-fifth of that prior peak, suggesting that despite substantial price appreciation, long-term holders—a cohort traditionally less reactive to price volatility—have not yet reached the profit-taking thresholds that would typically trigger aggressive selling pressure. This dynamic indicates that the market remains in what analysts characterize as a "relatively mild profit-taking phase," with the behavioral pattern resembling earlier bear markets rather than euphoric bull-market cycles.
Technical chart patterns reinforce this constructive intermediate-term outlook. Bitcoin's breach above its 365-day moving average—achieved for the first time since March 2023—represents a significant milestone, as CryptoQuant associates this signal with prior bull-market regimes. The 90-day upward trend in price action has been characterized by market analysts as displaying "renewed bullish momentum," with technical formations targeting further consolidation and potential breakout scenarios. Near-term resistance levels are positioned around $87,300, with trading activity suggesting buyers would need to sustain clearance above this level to unlock additional upside.
The divergence between bullish technical signals and measured long-term holder profit-realization levels creates an important nuance for institutional investors. While the Bull Score elevation and 365-day moving average breach suggest technical strength and potential for continued appreciation, the relatively low realized gains by long-term holders simultaneously indicate that these sophisticated market participants remain positioned for further gains rather than moving into distributional phases. This alignment of long-term holders' intentions with bullish technical signals may support further price appreciation, provided that intermediate resistance and near-term consolidation patterns are successfully navigated.
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