Key Takeaways
- • Keefe, Bruyette & Woods analyst Stephen Glagola assigns a 75% probability to a cryptocurrency cycle turn as of September 28, 2026, based on bitcoin's recovery from its June 30 low.
- • Bitcoin declined 53% from its October 2025 peak to the June 30 closing low over approximately 8.8 months—a shorter and shallower drawdown than the previous three bear markets, which averaged 82% declines over roughly 12 months.
- • Historical bitcoin bear markets have been followed by false rallies exceeding 30% that subsequently reversed, creating material risk of further decline despite current recovery momentum.
- • Onchain indicators have not yet demonstrated the deep capitulation typically observed near previous market bottoms, suggesting the cycle assessment carries meaningful uncertainty.
- • The analyst's 75% probability figure reflects the likelihood of a cycle inflection point, not a price forecast, and the firm resumed coverage of crypto exchange Coinbase (Nasdaq: COIN) alongside this assessment.
Summary
A September 28 report from investment bank Keefe, Bruyette & Woods assesses the cryptocurrency market's prospects following bitcoin's recovery from recent lows. Analyst Stephen Glagola assigns a 75% probability to a turn in the digital asset cycle, using bitcoin as a proxy for the broader crypto market. This assessment was accompanied by the firm's resumption of coverage on Coinbase Global Inc., signaling renewed institutional attention to the sector.
The analysis rests on comparative examination of bitcoin's current drawdown against historical bear market patterns. Bitcoin fell 53% from its October 2025 peak to a June 30 closing low, a decline that materialized over approximately 8.8 months. By contrast, the previous three bitcoin bear markets averaged declines of roughly 82% over periods averaging 12 months. The shallower magnitude and shorter duration of the current cycle's decline suggest a potential inflection point, though Glagola emphasizes this remains probabilistic rather than definitive.
However, the analyst explicitly flags meaningful downside risks. Previous bitcoin bear markets have included rallies exceeding 30% that ultimately failed to establish sustained recovery, leaving open the possibility of renewed decline from current levels. Additionally, onchain indicators—metrics tracking activity on the blockchain—have not yet demonstrated the deep capitulation patterns historically observed near previous market bottoms. This technical divergence underscores the conditional nature of the cycle-turn thesis and the heterogeneity of signals across different analytical frameworks.
The 75% probability figure represents Glagola's assessment of cycle dynamics, not a directional price forecast. For institutional investors and alternative asset managers tracking cryptocurrency exposure and market structure, the assessment suggests asymmetric positioning may be warranted until onchain metrics align with price recovery or additional time confirms the cycle inflection.
The analysis rests on comparative examination of bitcoin's current drawdown against historical bear market patterns. Bitcoin fell 53% from its October 2025 peak to a June 30 closing low, a decline that materialized over approximately 8.8 months. By contrast, the previous three bitcoin bear markets averaged declines of roughly 82% over periods averaging 12 months. The shallower magnitude and shorter duration of the current cycle's decline suggest a potential inflection point, though Glagola emphasizes this remains probabilistic rather than definitive.
However, the analyst explicitly flags meaningful downside risks. Previous bitcoin bear markets have included rallies exceeding 30% that ultimately failed to establish sustained recovery, leaving open the possibility of renewed decline from current levels. Additionally, onchain indicators—metrics tracking activity on the blockchain—have not yet demonstrated the deep capitulation patterns historically observed near previous market bottoms. This technical divergence underscores the conditional nature of the cycle-turn thesis and the heterogeneity of signals across different analytical frameworks.
The 75% probability figure represents Glagola's assessment of cycle dynamics, not a directional price forecast. For institutional investors and alternative asset managers tracking cryptocurrency exposure and market structure, the assessment suggests asymmetric positioning may be warranted until onchain metrics align with price recovery or additional time confirms the cycle inflection.
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