Bernstein: Texas Bitcoin Miners with Secured Power Capacity Could See Valuation Gains

Bernstein has issued a forward-looking assessment that Bitcoin miners and AI infrastructure operators in Texas with secured power capacity stand to achieve meaningful valuation gains as the state implements stricter oversight of grid interconnection projects. The thesis centers on a scarcity dynamic: as Texas audits and potentially restricts new data center grid connections due to mounting political opposition, the relative value of already-approved power capacity will increase materially. This creates a structural advantage for companies that have successfully navigated the regulatory approval process and locked in power supply.

The regulatory headwind facing new capacity reflects broader national scrutiny of energy consumption by data centers and cryptocurrency mining. Texas, with its deregulated electricity market and substantial renewable generation, has emerged as the dominant hub for both industries. However, grid operator ERCOT has struggled to manage the rapid acceleration of large-scale power consumption, prompting state-level review of pending interconnection projects. Bernstein's analysis suggests that this regulatory friction will persist, rendering already-secured power allocations an increasingly scarce and valuable asset.

Bernstein's ratings reflect this power-scarcity thesis. Six companies received outperform ratings: Cipher Mining, CleanSpark, Core Scientific, IREN, Riot Platforms, and TeraWulf—all positioned with substantial secured megawatt commitments. IREN leads the cohort with 5.8 GW of secured power capacity. MARA Holdings received a market-perform rating, indicating a more cautious stance. The firm's broader research indicates that former Bitcoin miners collectively hold approximately 30 GW of planned power capacity, yet have contracted less than one-quarter of this for AI infrastructure purposes, suggesting significant upside optionality.

For institutional investors, Bernstein's analysis positions power procurement strategy as a core investment criterion when evaluating Bitcoin mining and AI infrastructure exposures. The intersection of regulatory constraint on new supply and robust demand from artificial intelligence operations creates a structural premium for companies holding secured capacity. This dynamic extends beyond pure cryptocurrency mining returns; third-party computing capacity from Bitcoin miners is becoming increasingly valuable to AI providers facing acute power scarcity. The thesis implies that valuation multiples for secured-capacity operators should reflect data center power assets, not merely crypto mining operations.