Key Takeaways
- • Mercado Bitcoin, the Brazilian crypto exchange, found that bitcoin outperformed gold and the S&P 500 in every 60-day window it analyzed after major economic or geopolitical shocks.
- • After the Trump administration's sweeping tariff announcement in April 2025, bitcoin rose 24% over the following 60 days, versus 8% for gold and 4% for the S&P 500.
- • Following the onset of COVID-19 in March 2020, bitcoin rose 21% over the subsequent 60 days while the other assets trailed.
- • The study's author, head of research Rony Szuster, cautioned that judging bitcoin's performance too soon after a crisis can be misleading, as investors typically sell risk assets or raise cash before defensive assets recover.
- • The headline's 633% real-return figure is not detailed in the retrieved reporting, so its time period and methodology cannot be confirmed from the available material.
Summary
A study by Mercado Bitcoin, a Brazilian crypto exchange, concludes that bitcoin tends to outperform traditional safe-haven assets such as gold in the two months following major global crises, according to reporting by CoinDesk. The analysis, led by Rony Szuster, head of research at the Latin American crypto platform, examined 60-day windows after economic and geopolitical shocks, including the COVID-19 outbreak and U.S. tariff escalations. In each period analyzed, bitcoin posted stronger returns than both gold and the S&P 500.
The study cites two specific episodes. After the Trump administration announced sweeping tariffs in April 2025, bitcoin rose 24% over the following 60 days, compared with an 8% gain in gold and 4% for the S&P 500. A similar pattern appeared at the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in March 2020, when bitcoin gained 21% while the other assets trailed. According to the study, bitcoin has consistently rebounded after crises and has been the best-performing asset of the past decade, despite its volatility.
Szuster cautioned that evaluating bitcoin's performance too soon after a shock can be misleading. He noted that during periods of stress, investors often sell positions to reduce risk or raise cash, and even defensive assets can decline in the initial phase. The study's findings are based on a relatively short observation window following each event, and the headline's 633% real-return figure is not explained in the retrieved coverage, so readers should review the full study methodology before drawing broader conclusions about long-term performance.
The study cites two specific episodes. After the Trump administration announced sweeping tariffs in April 2025, bitcoin rose 24% over the following 60 days, compared with an 8% gain in gold and 4% for the S&P 500. A similar pattern appeared at the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in March 2020, when bitcoin gained 21% while the other assets trailed. According to the study, bitcoin has consistently rebounded after crises and has been the best-performing asset of the past decade, despite its volatility.
Szuster cautioned that evaluating bitcoin's performance too soon after a shock can be misleading. He noted that during periods of stress, investors often sell positions to reduce risk or raise cash, and even defensive assets can decline in the initial phase. The study's findings are based on a relatively short observation window following each event, and the headline's 633% real-return figure is not explained in the retrieved coverage, so readers should review the full study methodology before drawing broader conclusions about long-term performance.
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