Key Takeaways
- • Galaxy Digital research head Alex Thorn said on Oct. 22 that bitcoin has already passed its bottom and that selling pressure has weakened, a view reported by CoinPost on Oct. 27.
- • Thorn cited bitcoin holding its 200-week moving average and a 50-week moving average that has recovered for five consecutive weeks, and said that in four past episodes the price did not fall more than 8.4 percent below the recovery point over the following year.
- • Spot bitcoin ETF holdings fell only 11 percent from their Oct. 9, 2025 peak to a July 13, 2026 trough, while bitcoin's price fell 53 percent over the same period.
- • Thorn pointed to U.S. federal debt of $40.44 trillion, a $1.99 trillion fiscal deficit (6.2 percent of GDP) and $1.28 trillion in annual interest costs as a backdrop supporting the fiat debasement argument.
- • Thorn set risk thresholds: failure to recover the 50-week average within one month of falling below it, or spot ETF holdings falling below the 1.22 million BTC July trough, would challenge the bullish case.
Summary
Galaxy Digital, the crypto infrastructure firm, assessed the current market as a good time to buy and hold bitcoin, according to a DigitalToday report. The view comes from Galaxy Digital research head Alex Thorn, whose comments on Oct. 22 were reported by blockchain outlet CoinPost on Oct. 27. Thorn said bitcoin has already passed its bottom, that selling pressure has retreated, and that the case for fiat currency debasement is strengthening. He noted that bitcoin previously reached $125,000 and said there is no reason it cannot reach that level again.
Thorn's argument rests on technical, on-chain and supply-demand indicators. Bitcoin is holding its 200-week moving average, and its 50-week moving average has risen for five consecutive weeks. He said that in four prior instances when bitcoin traded below the 50-week line for more than 20 weeks and then recovered, it did not fall more than 8.4 percent below the recovery point over the following year. As of Oct. 22, bitcoin was 916 days past its halving, beyond the 777, 889 and 912-day bottom points of the past three cycles. Coins dormant for more than five years averaged 34,000 BTC per month in 2026, down from 67,000 BTC per month in 2024.
Positioning and flows also featured in his analysis. In the CME bitcoin futures market, asset managers' net long positions fell 57 percent from their peak, and hedge funds' net short positions declined about 57 percent. Spot bitcoin ETF holdings fell only 11 percent from their Oct. 9, 2025 peak to the July 13, 2026 trough, far less than the 53 percent decline in price.
Thorn also cited U.S. fiscal conditions. He put federal debt at $40.44 trillion, the fiscal deficit at $1.99 trillion, or 6.2 percent of GDP, and annual interest costs at $1.28 trillion. He argued that rolling over roughly $40 trillion of debt at around 5 percent interest while running a deficit near 6 percent of GDP increases inflation pressure, which could reinforce the debasement thesis.
The bullish scenario carries conditions. Thorn identified failure to reclaim the 50-week moving average within one month of falling below it again, and spot ETF holdings dropping below the July trough of 1.22 million BTC, as risk factors. He also said headwinds could emerge if a concrete timeline for quantum computers capable of breaking cryptography is presented, or if U.S. fiscal conditions move toward restored soundness. He flagged AI as a further risk if it competes with bitcoin for fundraising, if AI-enabled hacking rises, or if the AI boom fades. Thorn said the simultaneous breakdown of technical support, ETF holding trends and the fiscal backdrop would be the key point to watch.
Thorn's argument rests on technical, on-chain and supply-demand indicators. Bitcoin is holding its 200-week moving average, and its 50-week moving average has risen for five consecutive weeks. He said that in four prior instances when bitcoin traded below the 50-week line for more than 20 weeks and then recovered, it did not fall more than 8.4 percent below the recovery point over the following year. As of Oct. 22, bitcoin was 916 days past its halving, beyond the 777, 889 and 912-day bottom points of the past three cycles. Coins dormant for more than five years averaged 34,000 BTC per month in 2026, down from 67,000 BTC per month in 2024.
Positioning and flows also featured in his analysis. In the CME bitcoin futures market, asset managers' net long positions fell 57 percent from their peak, and hedge funds' net short positions declined about 57 percent. Spot bitcoin ETF holdings fell only 11 percent from their Oct. 9, 2025 peak to the July 13, 2026 trough, far less than the 53 percent decline in price.
Thorn also cited U.S. fiscal conditions. He put federal debt at $40.44 trillion, the fiscal deficit at $1.99 trillion, or 6.2 percent of GDP, and annual interest costs at $1.28 trillion. He argued that rolling over roughly $40 trillion of debt at around 5 percent interest while running a deficit near 6 percent of GDP increases inflation pressure, which could reinforce the debasement thesis.
The bullish scenario carries conditions. Thorn identified failure to reclaim the 50-week moving average within one month of falling below it again, and spot ETF holdings dropping below the July trough of 1.22 million BTC, as risk factors. He also said headwinds could emerge if a concrete timeline for quantum computers capable of breaking cryptography is presented, or if U.S. fiscal conditions move toward restored soundness. He flagged AI as a further risk if it competes with bitcoin for fundraising, if AI-enabled hacking rises, or if the AI boom fades. Thorn said the simultaneous breakdown of technical support, ETF holding trends and the fiscal backdrop would be the key point to watch.
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