Key Takeaways
- • Monetary policy divergence is driving asset performance gaps: Equities have rallied 9% since late February, while bitcoin has declined 1% and gold has fallen 20%, a spread Grayscale attributes directly to rising Federal Reserve rate expectations.
- • Fed rate expectations have shifted materially tighter: One-year Fed rate expectations have risen approximately 60 basis points since late February 2026, with roughly half of Federal Reserve officials now signaling that rate increases could be warranted in 2026.
- • Grayscale's base case hinges on Fed restraint: Head of Research Zach Pandl states that if the Fed holds off on rate hikes, bitcoin's price performance may narrow the gap with equities, positioning the asset as a potential catch-up play.
- • Bitcoin positioned as dual-exposure asset: Grayscale characterizes bitcoin as combining monetary policy sensitivity with blockchain growth exposure, functioning as both a scarce digital commodity and diversifier across macro asset classes.
Summary
Grayscale Investments has published research arguing that bitcoin's recent underperformance relative to equities is directly attributable to shifting Federal Reserve rate expectations, and that the cryptocurrency could narrow this performance gap if policymakers maintain an accommodative stance on monetary policy.
In a June 22 research note, Grayscale documented a significant divergence in asset class performance since late February 2026. U.S. equities have gained 9% over this period, supported by sustained spending on artificial intelligence infrastructure and development. Over the same timeframe, bitcoin has declined 1% while gold has fallen 20%, creating what Grayscale characterizes as one of the widest performance spreads among major macro assets.
The crypto asset manager attributes this divergence to changing market expectations surrounding Federal Reserve policy. One-year Fed rate expectations have risen by approximately 60 basis points since late February, and approximately half of Federal Reserve officials now indicate that rate increases could be warranted in 2026. This monetary policy repricing has created headwinds for bitcoin relative to risk assets. According to Zach Pandl, Head of Research at Grayscale, "Our base case is for the Fed to hold off on rate hikes. If we're right, bitcoin's price may catch up with stocks."
Grayscale's thesis positions bitcoin as a hybrid asset combining exposure to monetary policy dynamics with pure blockchain growth optionality, functioning as a scarce digital commodity with diversification characteristics across traditional macro asset classes. The implication is that in a monetary environment where rate hike expectations moderate, bitcoin could see valuation expansion relative to current levels.
In a June 22 research note, Grayscale documented a significant divergence in asset class performance since late February 2026. U.S. equities have gained 9% over this period, supported by sustained spending on artificial intelligence infrastructure and development. Over the same timeframe, bitcoin has declined 1% while gold has fallen 20%, creating what Grayscale characterizes as one of the widest performance spreads among major macro assets.
The crypto asset manager attributes this divergence to changing market expectations surrounding Federal Reserve policy. One-year Fed rate expectations have risen by approximately 60 basis points since late February, and approximately half of Federal Reserve officials now indicate that rate increases could be warranted in 2026. This monetary policy repricing has created headwinds for bitcoin relative to risk assets. According to Zach Pandl, Head of Research at Grayscale, "Our base case is for the Fed to hold off on rate hikes. If we're right, bitcoin's price may catch up with stocks."
Grayscale's thesis positions bitcoin as a hybrid asset combining exposure to monetary policy dynamics with pure blockchain growth optionality, functioning as a scarce digital commodity with diversification characteristics across traditional macro asset classes. The implication is that in a monetary environment where rate hike expectations moderate, bitcoin could see valuation expansion relative to current levels.
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