Key Takeaways
- • U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net outflows of $430.2 million on Thursday, November 5, 2026, with none of the 12 funds taking in new money; Fidelity's FBTC led with $199.87 million out, followed by BlackRock's IBIT at $104.97 million.
- • Net outflows totalled $869.8 million across the first four trading days of November, and the five-session IBIT outflow streak reached $1.04 billion before a brief Wednesday inflow.
- • IBIT held $61.01 billion in net assets and about 802,600 Bitcoin on November 5; its NAV of $43.02 is down 13.3% from the end-2025 level of $49.61.
- • Bitcoin fell to $75,531 on Friday, its lowest since mid-September and 40.2% below its all-time high, as institutions de-risked alongside a sharp equity sell-off after Democrats won both chambers of Congress.
- • Per the article's base case, IBIT trades in a $40.00 to $46.50 range through the December 9 Fed decision, with the $41.31 200-day simple moving average, equivalent to Bitcoin near $73,000, as a key support level.
Summary
Bitcoin fell from above $80,000 on Wednesday to an intraday low of $75,114 on Thursday, down 5.22% in 24 hours, and traded at $75,531 on Friday. The article characterizes this as Bitcoin's lowest level since mid-September and 40.2% below its all-time high. The sell-off coincided with a steep equity decline: the Nasdaq fell 5.52% to 24,315 on Thursday, entering correction territory, and the S&P 500 lost 4.36%, its worst day since April 2025. The Philadelphia semiconductor index dropped more than 12%. The source attributes the selling to investor concern about tighter AI and data-center regulation after Democrats won both chambers of Congress in the midterm elections.
IBIT, the largest spot Bitcoin ETF, held net assets of $61,011,445,002 and 1,418,160,000 shares outstanding on November 5, with holdings of roughly 802,600 Bitcoin, according to iShares data cited in the article. Its NAV was $43.02 on November 5, down from $47.38 on September 30 and $49.61 at the end of 2025. The article notes that the decline in assets since September reflects price movement rather than redemptions, as shares outstanding rose by 3.4 million over that period. IBIT closed at $43.03 on Thursday, down 5.07%, and traded at $42.88 on Friday within a range of $42.27 to $43.13. Its 30-day median bid-ask spread is 0.02%.
The article's base case projects an IBIT range of $40.00 to $46.50 through the December 9 Fed decision, equivalent to Bitcoin between $70,700 and $82,200. It identifies resistance at $45.28 to $45.86 and support at the $41.31 200-day simple moving average, which corresponds to Bitcoin near $73,000. A sustained break below $70,000 for Bitcoin would, in the author's view, push IBIT toward $38.50. The article characterizes the institutional selling as risk management rather than a fundamental judgment on Bitcoin, and notes that Friday's jobs report, with 165,000 October payrolls versus a 70,000 consensus and unemployment at 4.1%, added pressure by raising the cost of holding Bitcoin.
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