Key Takeaways
- • U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $74.6 million in net inflows on November 4, 2026, ending three consecutive sessions of withdrawals totaling $1.16 billion, according to Cryptonews.
- • Goldman Sachs pushed its expected Federal Reserve rate cuts back by one quarter, now forecasting cuts in December 2026 and March 2027, citing persistent inflation and a resilient labor market.
- • Fidelity's FBTC led the inflows with approximately $236.7 million, while BlackRock's IBIT recorded $201.2 million in outflows, extending its four-session losing streak to $935 million.
- • Bank of America removed its expected 2026 rate cuts entirely, moving them into the third quarter of 2027, creating a more challenging macro backdrop for Bitcoin.
Summary
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $74.6 million in net inflows on November 4, 2026, ending three consecutive sessions of withdrawals that totaled $1.16 billion, according to Cryptonews. The inflows came as Bitcoin recovered above $81,000, rebounding from a seven-week low near $75,600 reached during the November 3 election period. Analysts cautioned against attributing the recovery to a single catalyst, noting that markets stabilized following the U.S. midterm elections.
Flows across issuers were mixed. Fidelity's Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC) attracted approximately $236.7 million, Ark Invest's ARKB received $19.9 million and Bitwise's BITB added $15.2 million. BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) moved in the opposite direction, recording $201.2 million in outflows and extending its four-session losing streak to $935 million. The divergence suggests institutional demand has not returned uniformly across the market.
The flows came against a more cautious monetary policy backdrop. Goldman Sachs now expects the Federal Reserve to deliver its next two rate cuts in December 2026 and March 2027, pushing both reductions back by one quarter. Goldman economist David Mericle said lower inflation readings and further labor market softening would likely be necessary for the Fed to cut before year-end, citing concerns that energy costs could keep core personal consumption expenditures inflation near 3% throughout the year. The bank maintained its projected terminal rate range of 3% to 3.25% and acknowledged the Fed could forgo additional cuts if economic conditions remain strong.
Bank of America adopted a more restrictive stance, removing its expected 2026 rate cuts and moving them into the third quarter of 2027. Because Bitcoin often benefits when borrowing costs fall and liquidity improves, the delayed easing outlook presents a less supportive environment for the asset. Market participants are therefore weighing returning fund demand against a higher-for-longer rate path, and continued institutional buying could support prices if inflows persist, while elevated rates may constrain liquidity for risk assets.
Flows across issuers were mixed. Fidelity's Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC) attracted approximately $236.7 million, Ark Invest's ARKB received $19.9 million and Bitwise's BITB added $15.2 million. BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) moved in the opposite direction, recording $201.2 million in outflows and extending its four-session losing streak to $935 million. The divergence suggests institutional demand has not returned uniformly across the market.
The flows came against a more cautious monetary policy backdrop. Goldman Sachs now expects the Federal Reserve to deliver its next two rate cuts in December 2026 and March 2027, pushing both reductions back by one quarter. Goldman economist David Mericle said lower inflation readings and further labor market softening would likely be necessary for the Fed to cut before year-end, citing concerns that energy costs could keep core personal consumption expenditures inflation near 3% throughout the year. The bank maintained its projected terminal rate range of 3% to 3.25% and acknowledged the Fed could forgo additional cuts if economic conditions remain strong.
Bank of America adopted a more restrictive stance, removing its expected 2026 rate cuts and moving them into the third quarter of 2027. Because Bitcoin often benefits when borrowing costs fall and liquidity improves, the delayed easing outlook presents a less supportive environment for the asset. Market participants are therefore weighing returning fund demand against a higher-for-longer rate path, and continued institutional buying could support prices if inflows persist, while elevated rates may constrain liquidity for risk assets.
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