Key Takeaways
- • U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded two consecutive weeks of net outflows totaling close to $1 billion, with the latest week accounting for about $228.6 million according to SoSoValue and Farside Investors data.
- • Cumulative net inflows into U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs eased from just under $57.8 billion on Oct. 2 to $56.88 billion as of Oct. 16, with total assets under management at $104.29 billion.
- • Spot Ethereum ETFs shed roughly $320 million in the latest week, extending a three-week losing streak to about $1 billion.
- • Santiment data shows wallets holding 10 to 10,000 BTC added 85,916 coins since Sept. 18, while 30-day MVRV turned negative at about -2.3%.
- • Analysts cite a possible Fed pause at the October meeting as the most likely catalyst for reversing the ETF outflow trend, with a falling-wedge pattern pointing to $90,000 on a breakout.
Summary
U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds have posted net redemptions for two straight weeks, with combined outflows approaching $1 billion, according to SoSoValue and Farside Investors data. The most recent week was less severe than the prior one, with the funds shedding about $228.6 million over five sessions. Daily flows were mixed: a $65.4 million redemption on Monday, a $175.6 million inflow on Tuesday, $261.5 million pulled on Wednesday, a $5.1 million gain on Thursday and $82.4 million removed on Friday. The sell-off contrasts with late September, when the same funds absorbed roughly $2.4 billion in net creations over five sessions.
Ethereum funds fared worse on a relative basis. Spot ETH ETFs have recorded only one positive session since Sept. 28, a $24.8 million inflow on Oct. 13, and closed the latest week with roughly $320 million in net redemptions. Given the smaller asset base, percentage losses appear larger than the dollar figures suggest, and a single large issuer's redemptions can skew the weekly aggregate.
The price backdrop explains much of the shift. Bitcoin traded above $84,000 earlier in October, was rejected repeatedly near $87,000, and slipped to just under $80,000 for the first time in a month before recovering to around $81,500. Ethereum fell toward $2,300. Macro factors, including U.S. inflation readings and uncertainty over the Federal Reserve's rate path, have weighed on risk appetite. Santiment noted that since Sept. 22, Bitcoin has lost about 6.5% while gold fell 4% to 5% and the S&P 500 slipped about 0.3%.
On-chain data points in a different direction. Santiment reported that wallets holding between 10 and 10,000 BTC accumulated 85,916 coins since Sept. 18, which the firm views as a sign that deep-pocketed investors are treating the pullback as an entry point. Bitcoin's 30-day MVRV has dropped to about -2.3%, implying that coins moved in the past month are on average underwater, while the 365-day MVRV sits at 0.56%. The RSI is near 46.5, a neutral reading. Santiment cautioned that continued buying by smaller investors complicates the picture and said it stopped short of calling a rally imminent, citing macro uncertainty and steady Binance funding rates.
Technical analysts are watching a falling-wedge pattern. Per market commentators including Mister Crypto and Crypto Rover, a decisive break above the formation would open the path to $87,000 and then $90,000, while a failure of support could send Bitcoin toward the $70,000 area. The key question for allocators is whether the redemption streak extends into a third week. A return to modest net inflows would suggest a positioning adjustment, while broader or accelerating outflows would point to weaker institutional demand. Analysts widely see a pause in Fed tightening at the central bank's October meeting as the most likely catalyst for reversing the ETF outflow trend.
Ethereum funds fared worse on a relative basis. Spot ETH ETFs have recorded only one positive session since Sept. 28, a $24.8 million inflow on Oct. 13, and closed the latest week with roughly $320 million in net redemptions. Given the smaller asset base, percentage losses appear larger than the dollar figures suggest, and a single large issuer's redemptions can skew the weekly aggregate.
The price backdrop explains much of the shift. Bitcoin traded above $84,000 earlier in October, was rejected repeatedly near $87,000, and slipped to just under $80,000 for the first time in a month before recovering to around $81,500. Ethereum fell toward $2,300. Macro factors, including U.S. inflation readings and uncertainty over the Federal Reserve's rate path, have weighed on risk appetite. Santiment noted that since Sept. 22, Bitcoin has lost about 6.5% while gold fell 4% to 5% and the S&P 500 slipped about 0.3%.
On-chain data points in a different direction. Santiment reported that wallets holding between 10 and 10,000 BTC accumulated 85,916 coins since Sept. 18, which the firm views as a sign that deep-pocketed investors are treating the pullback as an entry point. Bitcoin's 30-day MVRV has dropped to about -2.3%, implying that coins moved in the past month are on average underwater, while the 365-day MVRV sits at 0.56%. The RSI is near 46.5, a neutral reading. Santiment cautioned that continued buying by smaller investors complicates the picture and said it stopped short of calling a rally imminent, citing macro uncertainty and steady Binance funding rates.
Technical analysts are watching a falling-wedge pattern. Per market commentators including Mister Crypto and Crypto Rover, a decisive break above the formation would open the path to $87,000 and then $90,000, while a failure of support could send Bitcoin toward the $70,000 area. The key question for allocators is whether the redemption streak extends into a third week. A return to modest net inflows would suggest a positioning adjustment, while broader or accelerating outflows would point to weaker institutional demand. Analysts widely see a pause in Fed tightening at the central bank's October meeting as the most likely catalyst for reversing the ETF outflow trend.
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