Key Takeaways
- • US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded about $635 million in net outflows on Oct. 22, the largest daily outflow since June 25, according to SoSoValue data, reversing nearly 60% of the inflows from the prior three sessions.
- • BlackRock's IBIT led withdrawals with $254 million, followed by Fidelity's FBTC at $217 million; together they accounted for roughly 74.2% of the day's net outflows.
- • Glassnode estimates US spot Bitcoin ETFs hold coins at an average cost basis of about $81,500, while Bitcoin traded as low as $80,841, leaving funds near break-even.
- • Ethereum ETFs lost about $111 million on Oct. 22, bringing October losses to roughly $1,180 million and reducing year-to-date net inflows to about $387 million.
- • Analysts cite Middle East tensions, Brent crude above $110 a barrel, and a Nasdaq decline of 2.6% as pressures, with the Federal Reserve's next policy decision due Oct. 28.
Summary
BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) led the selling with $254 million in withdrawals, followed by Fidelity's FBTC at $217 million. ARK Invest's ARKB shed $109 million, Grayscale's GBTC lost $30 million and Bitwise's BITB lost $27 million. Morgan Stanley's MSBT was the only fund to take in fresh capital, with about $2 million in inflows. The reversal coincided with Bitcoin falling as low as $80,841 during the reporting period.
Glassnode, in its Oct. 21 market report using data through Oct. 19, estimated that US spot Bitcoin ETFs acquired their holdings at an average price of approximately $81,500, while corporate treasuries hold coins at an estimated average cost of $80,200. The firm said buy orders near $80,000, depleted during the Oct. 15 selloff, had been partly replenished by Oct. 20 at smaller sizes. It identified the True Market Mean near $77,600 as the next major downside reference if Bitcoin closes below $80,000, and cited concentrated selling between $85,000 and $87,500 as a potential cap on recoveries. Corporate treasury accumulation has also weakened, with monthly purchases below one-tenth of their November 2024 peak since June.
Simon-Peter Massabni, head of business development at XS.com, told CryptoSlate that flows reflect increasingly cautious investors seeking short-term trading opportunities. He said Bitcoin has found tentative support above $80,000, but buying momentum is insufficient for a sustained recovery. He also pointed to Brent crude above $110 a barrel amid Middle East hostilities, arguing that elevated energy prices could keep central banks restrictive. The Nasdaq Composite fell 2.6% and the S&P 500 fell 1.21% on Thursday, partly on concerns about returns from heavy AI infrastructure spending. The Federal Reserve's next policy decision is due Oct. 28.
Ethereum ETFs faced more sustained withdrawals, with about $111 million in net outflows on Oct. 22. BlackRock's ETHA lost $75 million and its staking-focused ETHB lost $17 million, while Grayscale's two Ethereum funds shed a combined $20 million. Fidelity's FETH was the only positive contributor with about $2 million in inflows. Ethereum ETF losses reached approximately $1,180 million in October, exceeding September's $832 million in inflows and reducing year-to-date net inflows to about $387 million. Massabni said Ethereum's recovery would require several consecutive sessions of sustained buying, with the asset struggling to establish a firm base around $2,400.
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