Key Takeaways
- • Bitcoin is down 4.10% in October 2026, heading for a second straight losing month, while trading about 5% above its current 50-week average of $75,812 at $79,935, according to BeInCrypto.
- • Galaxy research head Alex Thorn reads the 200-week average as Bitcoin's bear-market floor and the 50-week average as its ceiling, and says Bitcoin reclaimed that ceiling in September after 44 weeks below it.
- • Asset managers' net long positions in CME Bitcoin futures fell 57% from the week of Bitcoin's all-time high, while nine investment firms, including Millennium Management and Goldman Sachs, cut spot Bitcoin ETF holdings by a combined 68,000 BTC-equivalent between September 2025 and June 2026.
- • Glassnode reports about 70% of short-term holder supply is in profit, down from almost all in late September, and Santiment reports roughly 30,000 non-empty wallets lost since October 16, which it reads as a possible bottom signal.
- • Bitcoin's November record, with a 63% win rate and 10.26% median gain since 2010 per Coinglass, is tempered by the fact that November rose in only 2 of the 5 years after a red October.
Summary
Bitcoin (BTC) is heading for a second consecutive losing October, down 4.10% since the month began, according to BeInCrypto. Despite the decline, the publication identifies four signals across price, positioning, on-chain data and macro conditions that still lean bullish. The price has slipped since BeInCrypto flagged four problems facing Bitcoin in early October, but its long-term chart structure has held.
Galaxy research head Alex Thorn treats the 200-week moving average as Bitcoin's bear-market floor and the 50-week average as its ceiling. Bitcoin tested the floor in June and reclaimed the ceiling in September after 44 weeks below it. At $79,935, BTC trades about 5% above the current 50-week average of $75,812. Galaxy examined four prior reclaims that followed at least 20 weeks below the 50-week average; in each case, Bitcoin never closed more than 8.4% below the reclaim level in the following year. Galaxy concluded that "now is an attractive time to buy and hold bitcoin."
Positioning data shows that larger market participants have pulled back. Per Galaxy's data, asset managers' net long positions in CME Bitcoin futures fell 57% from the week of Bitcoin's all-time high. Nine investment firms, including Millennium Management and Goldman Sachs, reduced reported spot Bitcoin ETF holdings by a combined 68,000 BTC-equivalent between September 2025 and June 2026. US spot Bitcoin ETFs have, however, added 87,000 BTC since the June low.
On-chain data points to smaller participants exiting. Glassnode says about 70% of short-term holder supply is in profit, down from almost all in late September, and the firm described this as a considerably better entry for buyers who expect the uptrend to continue than a month earlier. Santiment reports Bitcoin has lost roughly 30,000 non-empty wallets since October 16, which it reads as a possible bottom signal, noting that retail capitulation has historically been more constructive for price than a flood of new buyers chasing rallies.
The fourth signal lies outside crypto markets. US federal debt reached $40.44 trillion on October 20, and fiscal 2026 closed with a $1.99 trillion deficit. Galaxy argues that refinancing such debt at interest rates near 5% could increase pressure on policymakers to tolerate inflation, potentially strengthening the case for fixed-supply assets such as Bitcoin. BeInCrypto notes this pressure plays out over years and offers little guidance for near-term price moves.
Bitcoin's own seasonality is the main counterweight. According to Coinglass data, November has closed higher in 63% of years since 2010, with a median gain of 10.26%. However, November rose in only 2 of the 5 years that followed a red October, and last year a 3.95% October loss preceded a 17.49% November drop. Santiment says a sustained break below $79,000 would delay its bottom signal, while a reclaim near $82,500 would strengthen it. The October close, four days after the article's publication, will indicate which side of that range Bitcoin holds.
Galaxy research head Alex Thorn treats the 200-week moving average as Bitcoin's bear-market floor and the 50-week average as its ceiling. Bitcoin tested the floor in June and reclaimed the ceiling in September after 44 weeks below it. At $79,935, BTC trades about 5% above the current 50-week average of $75,812. Galaxy examined four prior reclaims that followed at least 20 weeks below the 50-week average; in each case, Bitcoin never closed more than 8.4% below the reclaim level in the following year. Galaxy concluded that "now is an attractive time to buy and hold bitcoin."
Positioning data shows that larger market participants have pulled back. Per Galaxy's data, asset managers' net long positions in CME Bitcoin futures fell 57% from the week of Bitcoin's all-time high. Nine investment firms, including Millennium Management and Goldman Sachs, reduced reported spot Bitcoin ETF holdings by a combined 68,000 BTC-equivalent between September 2025 and June 2026. US spot Bitcoin ETFs have, however, added 87,000 BTC since the June low.
On-chain data points to smaller participants exiting. Glassnode says about 70% of short-term holder supply is in profit, down from almost all in late September, and the firm described this as a considerably better entry for buyers who expect the uptrend to continue than a month earlier. Santiment reports Bitcoin has lost roughly 30,000 non-empty wallets since October 16, which it reads as a possible bottom signal, noting that retail capitulation has historically been more constructive for price than a flood of new buyers chasing rallies.
The fourth signal lies outside crypto markets. US federal debt reached $40.44 trillion on October 20, and fiscal 2026 closed with a $1.99 trillion deficit. Galaxy argues that refinancing such debt at interest rates near 5% could increase pressure on policymakers to tolerate inflation, potentially strengthening the case for fixed-supply assets such as Bitcoin. BeInCrypto notes this pressure plays out over years and offers little guidance for near-term price moves.
Bitcoin's own seasonality is the main counterweight. According to Coinglass data, November has closed higher in 63% of years since 2010, with a median gain of 10.26%. However, November rose in only 2 of the 5 years that followed a red October, and last year a 3.95% October loss preceded a 17.49% November drop. Santiment says a sustained break below $79,000 would delay its bottom signal, while a reclaim near $82,500 would strengthen it. The October close, four days after the article's publication, will indicate which side of that range Bitcoin holds.
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