Bitcoin Price Prediction: Grayscale Believes The Bear Market is Over

Grayscale Investments has challenged the prevailing narrative around Bitcoin's bear market cycle, arguing that the cryptocurrency may have already found its floor rather than facing months of additional decline. According to Zach Pandl, head of research at Grayscale, Bitcoin's price dynamics have fundamentally shifted away from the traditional four-year halving cycle that has historically governed the asset's boom-and-bust patterns. Instead, Pandl contends that Bitcoin now behaves as a macro asset, responding to the same macroeconomic factors that drive equities and fixed income: Federal Reserve policy, real interest rates, and economic growth expectations.

The investment firm identifies two competing frameworks for assessing the current bear market's duration. The first relies on Bitcoin's established four-year cycle, which would suggest the asset could decline an additional 80% from recent levels and bottom in September or October 2026. However, Grayscale explicitly rejects this view. Rather, the firm argues that Bitcoin has already bottomed in the $65,000 to $70,000 range, with the bear market's endpoint dependent on whether macro conditions stabilize. As Bitcoin traded near $65,400 at the time of reporting, it remained within or near Grayscale's identified bottom zone.

The critical variable, according to Grayscale's analysis, is Federal Reserve policy. The current bear market has been characterized by a significant shift in market expectations regarding the Fed's rate trajectory and a corresponding rise in real interest rates. Pandl stated that "if macro factors are in the driver's seat, Bitcoin's price could bottom when these macro factors turn around." This perspective suggests that bear market resolution hinges on the Fed avoiding further rate hikes and maintaining economic growth—conditions that would theoretically allow real rates to stabilize or decline, removing a key headwind to risk assets including Bitcoin.

The positioning reflects Grayscale's broader institutional thesis that Bitcoin has matured beyond its earlier boom-bust cycles into a sophisticated asset class whose valuation aligns with broader economic and monetary policy regimes. This view has supported the firm's prior prediction of a Bitcoin all-time high in the first half of 2026, contingent on sustained institutional adoption and regulatory clarity. Recent five-day ETF inflows of $727 million provide some evidence of institutional interest, though the ultimate trajectory remains dependent on central bank policy shifts that remain uncertain as of mid-2026.