Key Takeaways
- • Bitcoin collapsed below $66,000 on Thursday, marking its lowest level in over a year and triggering a nearly 50% decline from its October 2025 peak of approximately $126,000, with the digital asset down more than 10% during Thursday's trading session.
- • Barry Bannister, chief equity strategist at Stifel, projects bitcoin could ultimately bottom near $38,000—a potential 70% decline from current levels—based on historical patterns observed during previous "bitcoin super-bears."
- • Matt Hougan, chief investment officer at Bitwise Asset Management, characterized the current downturn as a "full-bore, 2022-like crypto winter" driven by excess leverage and widespread profit-taking by early investors, rather than a typical bull-market correction.
- • The $70,000 psychological threshold serves as a critical technical level; analysts had flagged this as a key support point below which further price deterioration becomes likely.
- • The crypto selloff is occurring despite broad policy support from the Trump administration, which has championed digital assets through executive orders and rhetoric positioning the U.S. as a "crypto capital of the world."
Summary
Bitcoin has entered a severe downturn, with the cryptocurrency trading below $66,000 on Thursday afternoon—its lowest level in more than a year. The digital asset has surrendered nearly 50% of its value from its October 2025 peak near $126,000, marking a significant reversal from the broader market enthusiasm that characterized late 2025. Thursday's trading session alone saw bitcoin decline more than 10% as of 2:45 p.m. Eastern Time, with the breach below the $70,000 psychological level signaling potential for further downside according to technical analysts who had identified this threshold as a critical support area.
Industry experts remain divided on the severity and duration of the current correction. Barry Bannister, chief equity strategist at Stifel, has issued a bearish assessment, writing in a research note that bitcoin could ultimately settle around $38,000—representing approximately 70% downside from current levels. Bannister grounded this projection in historical analysis of previous "bitcoin super-bears" and their characteristic price patterns. Conversely, Matt Hougan, chief investment officer at crypto asset manager Bitwise Asset Management, has reframed the selloff as a structural "crypto winter" comparable to the 2022 downturn, citing multiple causative factors including excessive leverage in the market and substantial profit-taking by early-stage investors he referred to as "OGs." Hougan explicitly distinguished this environment from a typical bull-market correction, suggesting more prolonged pain ahead for market participants.
The timing of the selloff presents a notable paradox within the policy landscape. The cryptocurrency market's weakness is unfolding alongside sustained political support from the Trump administration, which has made digital assets a centerpiece of its economic agenda. President Trump campaigned on making the United States a "bitcoin superpower" and the "crypto capital of the world," and signed executive orders within days of taking office designed to promote digital assets. Despite these pro-crypto policy signals, investor sentiment has deteriorated markedly, suggesting that regulatory and political tailwinds alone are insufficient to support asset prices amid broader market deleveraging and profit-taking dynamics.
Industry experts remain divided on the severity and duration of the current correction. Barry Bannister, chief equity strategist at Stifel, has issued a bearish assessment, writing in a research note that bitcoin could ultimately settle around $38,000—representing approximately 70% downside from current levels. Bannister grounded this projection in historical analysis of previous "bitcoin super-bears" and their characteristic price patterns. Conversely, Matt Hougan, chief investment officer at crypto asset manager Bitwise Asset Management, has reframed the selloff as a structural "crypto winter" comparable to the 2022 downturn, citing multiple causative factors including excessive leverage in the market and substantial profit-taking by early-stage investors he referred to as "OGs." Hougan explicitly distinguished this environment from a typical bull-market correction, suggesting more prolonged pain ahead for market participants.
The timing of the selloff presents a notable paradox within the policy landscape. The cryptocurrency market's weakness is unfolding alongside sustained political support from the Trump administration, which has made digital assets a centerpiece of its economic agenda. President Trump campaigned on making the United States a "bitcoin superpower" and the "crypto capital of the world," and signed executive orders within days of taking office designed to promote digital assets. Despite these pro-crypto policy signals, investor sentiment has deteriorated markedly, suggesting that regulatory and political tailwinds alone are insufficient to support asset prices amid broader market deleveraging and profit-taking dynamics.
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