Key Takeaways
- • Calamos Investments CEO John Koudounis reaffirmed in an Oct. 9 interview that Bitcoin will eventually reach $1 million, a target he places around 2030 while acknowledging he has said he is unsure whether it will arrive in 2030 or 2031.
- • Koudounis expects bank lending against Bitcoin, falling volatility, and new investment products to draw larger pools of institutional capital, citing banks such as JPMorgan and Morgan Stanley.
- • Sberbank, Russia's largest bank, has been added to the Bank of Russia's crypto-exchange register and plans to launch its first crypto products on Dec. 1, initially offering BTC, Ethereum and Tether's USDT.
- • Sberbank has not said customers can use Bitcoin as collateral for loans, nor has it disclosed plans to add BTC to its balance sheet, so the approval provides trading access rather than the lending channel Koudounis cites.
- • Reaching $1 million from the roughly $83,650 price on Oct. 14 would imply a gain of about 1,095% and a circulating market capitalization near $20.1 trillion.
Summary
Calamos Investments CEO John Koudounis has reaffirmed his view that Bitcoin will eventually reach $1 million, according to an interview published Oct. 9 by CCN. Koudounis, whose firm manages approximately $50 billion, expects institutional adoption to accelerate as banks begin lending against the asset. He told CNBC in September that the question among large investors has shifted from whether to own Bitcoin to how much to allocate, quoting: "Bitcoin is definitely an allocation that most portfolios are starting to have, even the sovereign wealth funds." He described the possibility of a "huge awakening" through 2028 as capital held by banks, sovereign wealth funds and financial advisers with little or no Bitcoin exposure begins to flow in. Although the Oct. 9 interview frames the call as a 2030 target, Koudounis said at an April 2026 conference that he did not know whether it would occur in 2030 or 2031, but believed it would eventually happen.
The forecast was tested the same week when Sberbank secured permission to enter Russia's regulated crypto market. The Bank of Russia added Sberbank to its crypto-exchange register after previously authorizing it as a digital depository. Under the new framework, registered exchanges may buy and sell crypto while depositories record and transfer customer holdings. The bank plans to make its first crypto products available through its existing banking and investment platforms on Dec. 1 and has reportedly begun testing purchases, sales, deposits and withdrawals involving BTC, Ethereum and USDT. The authorization follows legislation effective Sept. 1 that brought exchanges and custodians under central bank supervision. Non-qualified investors may buy up to 300,000 rubles annually through each intermediary after passing a knowledge test, and crypto payments for goods and services remain banned.
CCN notes that trading access does not fully satisfy Koudounis's institutional thesis. Sberbank has not said customers can pledge Bitcoin as collateral for cash loans or other financing, and it has not disclosed plans to hold BTC on its balance sheet. The approval therefore creates a regulated route to Bitcoin exposure without evidence that the bank treats it as conventional collateral.
For scale, Bitcoin traded near $83,650 on Oct. 14. Reaching $1 million would require an increase of roughly 1,095% and would imply a circulating market capitalization of about $20.1 trillion on roughly 20.1 million coins in circulation. That figure would exceed the combined market value of Nvidia, Apple, Alphabet and Microsoft, and would represent about one-third of the S&P 500, valued at roughly $63.3 trillion. CCN observes that these comparisons do not make the target impossible but illustrate the amount of value Bitcoin would need to attract while managing volatility and competition from other assets.
The forecast was tested the same week when Sberbank secured permission to enter Russia's regulated crypto market. The Bank of Russia added Sberbank to its crypto-exchange register after previously authorizing it as a digital depository. Under the new framework, registered exchanges may buy and sell crypto while depositories record and transfer customer holdings. The bank plans to make its first crypto products available through its existing banking and investment platforms on Dec. 1 and has reportedly begun testing purchases, sales, deposits and withdrawals involving BTC, Ethereum and USDT. The authorization follows legislation effective Sept. 1 that brought exchanges and custodians under central bank supervision. Non-qualified investors may buy up to 300,000 rubles annually through each intermediary after passing a knowledge test, and crypto payments for goods and services remain banned.
CCN notes that trading access does not fully satisfy Koudounis's institutional thesis. Sberbank has not said customers can pledge Bitcoin as collateral for cash loans or other financing, and it has not disclosed plans to hold BTC on its balance sheet. The approval therefore creates a regulated route to Bitcoin exposure without evidence that the bank treats it as conventional collateral.
For scale, Bitcoin traded near $83,650 on Oct. 14. Reaching $1 million would require an increase of roughly 1,095% and would imply a circulating market capitalization of about $20.1 trillion on roughly 20.1 million coins in circulation. That figure would exceed the combined market value of Nvidia, Apple, Alphabet and Microsoft, and would represent about one-third of the S&P 500, valued at roughly $63.3 trillion. CCN observes that these comparisons do not make the target impossible but illustrate the amount of value Bitcoin would need to attract while managing volatility and competition from other assets.
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